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Everything posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. Well I mean heres the thing right, we don't know what they WILL DO, but we can conjecture on what they HAVE TO DO, to field a competitive roster in the next four years. If the organization is not going to do what it needs to compete, or if people think we should only follow the Tampa model, we might as well table all discussion until there's a sale or the Orioles have had 10 years of top 5 picks. If we want to discuss, as this thread is predicated, on what the Orioles need to do to "not waste G-rod and Adley) then we need to be talking about how this team spends money to get there.
  2. To me if you are building a foundation for future success this offseason you have to take into account the realities of the market, the available options, and see who can be added to help in the next four years. That may mean you are adding less players, and at higher contracts. For me those players are one of the high level to elite infielders. I would target Baez personally and I would be prepared to give him a 3-4 deal at $22-24 AAV. That is in line with market value and would allow him an age 31-32 contract. You have to address the realities of the Orioles pitching situation.
  3. Given current salaries and free agents I think these are your options $15 million starter: Grienke, Kikuchi, Duffy, Jon Gray $7 relievers: Hudson, Yates, Knebel, Givens, Diekman, Kennedy $7 IF: The free agent pool is surprisingly void of players that meet this profile of mid level talent that won't embarass you. Its go big or go home this year in the infield. Leury Garcia, Andrelton Simmons? Uif: This could be literally anyone. Doesn't really inspire confidence that this is going to "not waste Gray Rod and Adley."
  4. Of course its not. It allows you to make more errors which is the key. It does not allow you to make all the errors. Just like in a game. You are up 10-2, the error allowing a base hit doesn't mean much. Tie score, the error means everything.
  5. I thought it went through the same league first, so he made it past the diamondbacks and no one else.
  6. Would need to come with massive balancing rules changes that MLB is too scared to make or won't make because the current system keeps large market teams competitive while paying off small market owners to keep them quiet.
  7. Mullins, if he keeps this up, will be expensive when he gets to arbitration. That said, that point is still a year away at least. That for me puts Mullins into the trade only if someone is doing something truly stupid area. 30/30 Center Fielders with great coverage dont come along that often. Even playoff teams struggle to find them. If Mullins cost $15-$20 million in his age 28-29 seasons when we would expect the Orioles to start competing thats probably a pretty good value. We can't expect the Orioles to be unable to spend money and also become a playoff team, those two things
  8. 90% strand rate while pitching for the orioles. Not many know, but strand rate, like BABip, tends to regress to a league mean. Its one of those predictor stats that can be used to foresee future success. I am going to tell you right now that 90% is completely unsustainable. You can't put 9 base runners on base in 5 innings and expect to give up 1 run most of the time. Expect regression.
  9. They may have a 5 run offense through part of the season (maybe a few weeks) but the funny thing about being a competitive team is you need to be consistently strong offensively. Veterans add that level of consistency through out the year.
  10. Can we dispense with the "I don't see a player like X signing with us" Players in 95% of scenarios go to where the contract is biggest. And again, if Elias can't sign someone to a 4-6 year deal and convince them that the team willb be competitive during the term of that deal he probably should not be a GM.
  11. There are six recent all star SS's on the market this winter. The Orioles have to take advantage of supply, that exists this off season. Free agent classes like this rarely if ever come along. I this next thing I say with the utmost respect, but the notion that we can't block our infield prospects is utterly and completely asinine. You cant build a team solely through the farm system, and you cant worry about blocking anyone, save AR. You cant assume every prospect is going to make it, and certainly not as soon as they make it to the league (Mullins took 4 years). If you have
  12. Mateo should not stop the Orioles from getting one of the SS available this off season.
  13. If you think a farm system, and solely a farm system can restore a team to competitiveness then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
  14. He has had two off seasons, if he hasn't tried to build a bullpen he should probably be fired. I see this a lot. "Its okay the Orioles are terrible because Elias has tried to make [insert aspect of team] better." Its a pretty lazy team building. The GM should always try and build more talent into the system and that doesn't always take free agent signings. While its great he has built a top farm system we also need to acknowledge that Elias has been fairly terrible at identifying additional talent. Maybe Wells, maybe Urias, maybe Mateo. Not much there.
  15. GMs that non tender promising young players based on years brought low by injury dont last long. Why nontender a guy who already brought his arb numbers lower with the injury?
  16. The only way Elias gets rid of him is if Elias is feeling the heat, which he won't with the farm system gains to fall back on. A new GM generally gets two HC's so why would we waste one before he even started trying to turn it around. IF he gives Hyde resources next year (or perceived resources) and the team struggles then Hyde "resigns". Elias says something about needing a veteran coach and brings in someone with some experience. This songs been sung so many times in MLB its almost cliche.
  17. I think its more about college athletes tying themselves to the machinery of an existing press and communications department than the organization. Its a good investment for the team because they already have all the processes, contracts and industry contacts in place and they can probably handle an NIL contract within existing staff. For a team in Atlanta getting the NIL contract for some SEC stud football player could be lucrative. If I were the Orioles I would be doing the same but for ACC basketball players.
  18. This is a really great analysis of how big and small market teams are different but I think there is one very important aspect that is worth mentioning. In a competitive team environment, large market teams can take larger risks without the same drawbacks. A $10 million dollar contract that is 5% of your $200 payroll is not going to hurt you as much as the same contract that is 20% of your $50 million dollar payroll. So a team like the Giants can sign Gausman last year as a throw away contract (good if it works out, okay if doesn’t) and reap the benefits when that works out.
  19. With 6 former all star shortstops being free agents and no prospects near ready it would be dereliction for the Orioles to not get one of them. The Orioles need to exploit supply and demand dynamics in free agency if they are going to ever build a real team.
  20. Well, he's not going to come out and say "We were supposed to be better than this, and i am disappointed my 2nd overall pick last year hasn't seen a baseball diamond in 18 months, and my pitching pick ups have been terrible, and I wish we had seen progress out of more than 3 players on the MLB roster." We knew we could lose is never acceptable. Even if you are the worst team in the league you should see progress out of more of the major league roster than 3 players. Absolute embarassment. I dont see how people think this is the system thats going to yield positive results.
  21. You think if I ask MLB TV for our money back I can get it? We are Orioles and Pirates fans...
  22. The Toronto model is not sustainable if it even gets off the ground (4.5 back for the second WC). Ray is pitching out of his mind and if they want to keep him it will be on a very tough contract to swallow down the road. Matz is on a one year deal. Stripling is borderline #4. Ryu is in year 2 of a 4 year contract he will be 36 at the end of. Barrios is basically the same as Ray. Short term with a big contract coming. If they retain Ray its unlikely they get a season like this again as he is outperforming peripherals. Its also likely Ryu starts to get worse in h
  23. Hard to be effusive about the minor league pitching when the Orioles just don't prioritize pitchers in the drafts under Elias. 2021: 9 of 20 picks. 7 of which were picks 14-19, and none of which were in the top 4 rounds. 2020: 1 of 6 picks. It was the last pick. 2019: Not a single pitcher before round 8, 9 of the first 20.
  24. Do people not realize that 1-2 innings as a reliever is completely different than getting shelled in the first as a starter?
  25. Its not the managers fault, but when the lens turns on the GM for lack of performance (inability to field a competitive pitching staff) then the manager is going to take the brunt of that criticism. I think Elias offers up this coaching staff for his failures this off season. And maintain that the Orioles will never complete a rebuild under Elias. Frankly I think the best thing the Orioles could do now is hire a real GM in the President of Baseball Operations, and shift Elias back to what he does best and has done best, which is create a top notch farm system. Is this a hot tak
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