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Everything posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. As stated above I was in Hartford watching this game seated about 10 rows back from home plate just toward first base. The first thing I noticed was how effortless his speed was. Like crazy easy 99 with few over 100 on tge stadium gun. GR gave up hard contact early, the first time through the lineup and I was a little surprised, the Hartford team has two top 30 position prospects in the rockies system, its not a super strong line up. I felt like he was trying to get through the lineup once mostly on fastballs. When he really started to unleash his slider you could tell. Th
  2. Watching him in Hartford right now. Easy Cheese. Like effortless 99.
  3. Took tge survey.. The researchers should know that results from this site will skew some statistics. Are you okay with people criticizing the Orioles? - have you read the OH? Do you know that there is a thread here called "Orioles Win, Yankees lose." The schadenfreude is just baked in there.
  4. You are slightly correct. His walk % has risen since I last looked at it. Its 9.8% a little below average, but last year and the year before he was well above average (79th percentile last year), showing a pitcher capable of keeping walks down. You are correct that his BABIP is not an outlier, so I think you are probably correct there and looking at his hard hit % probably shows a pitcher whose grounders are even a little hot to handle (above league average). I will still maintain that I think he could be a league average pitcher with some small tweaks.
  5. 1.4 WHIP does not worry me as much. Lopez has a very good overall walk rate. It does suggest he is giving up more hits, but the quality of those hits and the defense matters. At 51% GB rate, give him the 2014 Orioles infield defense and you have a pitcher who is at or even above league average.
  6. I said in a thread ar the end of April when people were calling for Jorge to be benched that his underlying statistics showed abpitcher who was going to improve, and he has done that. That said, without some changes in his pitch mix, which largely show similar movement, he is a little capped at what could be a league average pitcher. He weirdly, in a world where spin rate is king, ranks in the 1st percentile (bad) for spin rate on his FB. Conversely, I also said in that thread that we are about to see some Matt Harvey regression, and we have, but to those calling for Harvey to be jettis
  7. Lunhow built a good team in Houston, and they are going to have to be much better here than they were in Houston. I don't foresee the current ownership ever devoting the same level of resources or payroll. Not to mention that in 2017 - 2019 when Houston won the division three years in a row the AL west had a total of three other teams over .500 (okaland in 18 and 19, Seattle in 18). The Orioles will never have that luxury in the AL East.
  8. Finally. Before this season I said this. I said we need to worry about Elias. Look, I get some of what we have done at the minor league level is good. But for the Orioles to eventually compete against the Yankees and Boston and Tampa the GM has to be good on many different levels from drafting, player development, call up preparation, roster competitiveness evaluation, skill evaluation, waiver claims, trades, free agent acquisition, international player acquisition, choice of coaching staff and managet. They can't underperform significantly at any of these. How many people look at
  9. 1. Rude 2. I get it. Rebuilding is tough. You get a lot of losses. But when you see a team of prospects, 99% of whom have regressed, the GM has to be accountable. He has to put together a team and coaching staff that puts players in a position to succeed. One look at the Hyde thread shows me not a lot of people think he has put the coaches in place. One look at the frustration of posts like Tony's from the other day shows me everyone recognizes that that this team is not where it should be, if not by WL record by daily competitiveness. Some people seem to have misinterprete
  10. Its not the first pick that I am worried about. Its that Elias clearly thought that he had a more complete team than he did. As noted by others in this thread, not have the self awareness to know what your team is can destroy the competitive future of the franchise. Its like the White Sox trading Tatis Jr for James Shields.
  11. The organization has to build depth to be able to cast players in the right role. Getting a guy you think is undervalued and then trying to shoehorn him in somewhere else is just a different kind of failure.
  12. Don't beat on a wall, and expect it to become a door. This team is just bad but on the plus side Elias in November told us... "In last week’s video conference call, Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias raised expectations for the team when he said he felt there were “not a lot of holes right now.”" https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2020/11/10/32721/
  13. Oops. We saw the worst teams (by record) coming and gained a false hope of mediocrity ahead, only realize that they saw a mediocre team coming and knew we were the worst team.
  14. This. The twins were considered a borderline playoff team. They have a strong lineup and decent pitching. Underperfoming teams get healthy on bad teams.
  15. No. His overall numbers don't look good but in his last week of games he went 2, 0, 2, 0, 2, 1, 1 hits 8-28, .285 average Before that he had a bad stretch of four games but before that had put together a string of: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 0, 2, 0, 3, 0, 2, 2 hits That stretch was 18-53 or a .339 average, with a week long hit streak. Thats a hitter thats getting more consistency into his game. Sending him down is just going to hurt his progress.
  16. The Orioles are a 100 loss team with the MLB leader in RBIs and a top 10 SP.
  17. The point at which the Orioles give up on Hayes is about half a season before the Rays have a new all star outfielder. Book it.
  18. You can't project a starting rotation of one established pitcher and four prospects. That just doesn't happen. It sounds good on paper but I doubt there has been a team recently that has been able to sustain 3 prospects for a significant portion of the year. Its tough, free agent starters aren't always the most reliable but good ones know how to put up quality innings. Tampa, who may be the best at integrating prospects into their rotation frequently depends on veterans for solid innings (Hill, Morton).
  19. Its funny you say that given this a thread about the Mets (see Jared Kelenic). That said, different GM, different circumstances. It won't happen but...it has.
  20. You are speaking in "ifs", but there are people who want to replace him now. You are going to point to past track record and say he will trend down. I pointed to advanced metrics that show he is likely to trend up. The point of my post was that a three game sample is not the grounds to overreact. Lets see what the next three games looks like and evaluate from there. The OP says who is next to go...its not Harvey.
  21. Fotlr those who want to get rid of Harvey, who do you want to take his place? Have you given consideration that the pitcher replacing him might be worse, putting more strain on the bullpen? Does that player have an innings limit this year? Do you realize that despite having ERA above 6.00 Harvey has an xERA and xFIP below 5.00? Are you going to jettison every pitcher who has three bad outings in a row? Are you aware than Harvey's worst outing against Tampa Bay that Ed Hickok was behind the plate (universally one of the worst umpires in the league) and according game score cards only calle
  22. 30 runs in four games... To put that in perspective with other teams giving up their last 30 runs: Boston, 6 games (5-1 record) Tampa, 7 games (6-1 record) Yankees, 10 games (8-2 record) Dodgers, 13 games (11-2 record) Padres, 13 games. (11-2 record) Pirates 3 games (0-3) they gave up 20 on Friday. Obbiously this is a small sample. The Blue Jays for example have also given 30 in their last 4 and gone 0-4, but it gives some perspective.
  23. I was going to point this out. Since we are season we can speculate what this trade would look like given prospect lists. There are a lot of non-starters in the top 15 prospects as far as teams who are not competitive and so would not trade for Means. Three teams stick out to me and you have pointed out the SD trade package. The other two are Atlanta and SF. They would be centered around: Atl: Pache, Shewmake, etc SF: Luciano, Seth Corry, etc I would think you would have to consider any of those three, with a darkhorse trade of Liberatore and Gorman (two top 30) being th
  24. I mean we could imagine 1000 unknown variables as excuses for bad trades or we could just accept they were bad trades.
  25. A consensus #1 pick is maybe the only 1st round pick we can expect Elias to get right. Thats sarcasm...sort of.
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