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Camden_yardbird

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Everything posted by Camden_yardbird

  1. Really? Because according to sportrac that number is 34. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/baltimore-orioles/signed-free-agent/
  2. I dont think you understand the Tampa model then. Tampa takes chances on free agents all the time and they do it for a variety of reasons. Sometime they sign low risk high reward injured players (Ramos, Eovaldi) sometime its players to round out a team (Zuniga and Morton) sometimes they try find a diamond that isn't polished (Gomez). Since 2015 thry have signed 30 free agents. Tampa churns, and they do so to see what works, but they don't preclude themselves from any avenue of acquiring talent wherever they are in their competitive process.
  3. Ha, you are going to show me the statistics of a 24 year old who has less than 60 innings in the major leagues and tell me he sucks. Of course he sucks. Mize would hardly be the first rd 1 pick 1 SP to fail if he did, that said he has less than 200 professional innings. He has three plus pitches and his work at age 22 was quite good, low FIP, low walk rate, k% over 20%. He probably won't become Cole but I wouldn't call him a bust. Far from it.
  4. I think we can all recognize that this team is probably ready for some impact free agents. We didn't have to wait until next off season. As for the Tigers they are behind us but not too far. If in a year Fulmer recovers and Mize, Manning and Skubal round into form they will have a good rotation, whether they trade Boyd or not. Offensively I think Candelaria, Baddoo, Torkelson, Daz, Riley Green will all be contributors in the next 2 years. No team should solely try to build through one method.
  5. Its frequently cited when looking at fantasy prospects and chance for injury. This article is one of dozens that I have seen over the years. https://rotofanatic.com/the-danger-zone-sudden-ip-increases/
  6. There is a lot of evidence that shows that significant increases to pitch loads leads to injury. And no one pitched a lot last year.
  7. God. I have been screaming this in my criticism of Elias and people have just told me I am crazy. Not just prospects, but Elias assumed nothing was here sold what he had for pennies on the dollar for single A prospects who are mile away. Not to mention they are trying to do this in the single worst time to do it for the development of prospects in the history of baseball history, if unforeseen. You are never going to rebuild solely from prospects. You have to spend money, you have to sign guys to short deals and see if they can be pieces. This is a lot easier for big market t
  8. Right before he hit the HR i said to my wife "double down the rightfield line". He missed his spot in, caught too much of the plate and the double turned into a HR to right. That sequence was asanine. Change spots, change eye height, something, but for God's sake don't call another pitch in the same place.
  9. Lakins gives up the homer today 5/14 to Urshela which lost the game but here's what I saw, a catcher who called the same pitch in the same location 7 pitches in a row. He was set up to fail.
  10. Some days your closer has a bad day. It happens.
  11. I don't think its amazing but what the Orioles have been able to do is take scrapped pitchers and turn them into something that should settle around a 4.00 FIP, and thats a competitive skill. Harvey is due for a regression, he is pitching to about a -0.80 FIP/xFIP differential. But he also a veteran pitcher and he is keeping balls off of barrels, leading to a better than average hard hit percentage. He keeps his walks down and that should help him out perform his xFIP. Lopez is on the other side. His FIP/xFIP differential is +0.80 and his ERA/xERA is almost +2.00! Lopez has some
  12. Does he? I have yet to see where there is any appreciable value (with one notable exception) added to this organization under Elias. The one thing he hasn't done is screw up the top prospects he inherited, so he at least is doing something right. I would say the organization has a solidly mixed to bad track record under Elias on preparation of players for call ups, even recognizing it takes time for players to learn the big league game. We have a big old N/A on the minor leagues until we see more data and they actually get to play so we can't evaluate his drafts but at review they did n
  13. I am in fact not convinced the Orioles are doomed. I think they need to start adding major leaguers to their roster and not keep subtracting them for trade packages that look a lot like the Halloween grab bag from the weird house down the street (i.e. a lot of random stuff that is not what your really want and will get thrown out after a few weeks). The Orioles don't have to be far away. They have pitching in the minor leagues, they have 4-5 solid hitters, they have an Ace. They need to keep adding major leaguers and stop subtracting them, especially for grab bags of players in tra
  14. Am I the only person who has zero confidence in Elias trading those two for meaningful future players?
  15. Severino called a no-hitter. The drop is bad but what he did is still a massive achievement. Good for both of them.
  16. Most pitchers pick up some velocity in the move and that could help Zimmerman. With his whiff rate and a decreased need to show hitters different things (in the pen you only see them once) he could be a solid middle innings guy. He has a very good curve and an okay slider and with more experience he could eventually make his way back to the rotation when he understands how to get out MLB batters in more ways. My guess is the Orioles have some ideas for him to work on getting that fastball into better locations.
  17. Not quite what you are looking for but you can get a lot of data from statcast single game reports including xBA. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=2021-05-01&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=scoreboard#634319
  18. Yea I frequently call a player with a 141 wrc+ just "okay". That is by definition well above average, repeating or not. You and Frobby are just wrong on this one. You are comparing him to a player identified as a generational talent and Frobby is using subjective terms like "solid" when we quite literally have a statistic that measures what average is. 109, 113, 141 all wrc+ numbers that Mullins put up in the minors...are above average.
  19. To me this is not the hypothetical. The hypothetical is how good would we be if the Orioles had taken chances on former top prospects this offseason (exactly the type of risk they should be taking) and signed any of Rodon, Naquin, Profar, Ray, or Wong. Did I cherry pick? Sort of. I chose four (minus Naquin who was drafted by the O's) players who were top 10 prospects for their teams, reaching free agency for the first time between the ages of 27-30. Elias seems to see no value in these players because they were born before the year 2000 but they would all fill a need and could ha
  20. I was fuming when I saw Chapman come up the next half inning and get all those low strikes. Though I also noticed that severino was trying to pull up everything even if it hit the bottom edge.
  21. Mark Reynolds excelled in one statistic, P/HR. Peanuts per home run.
  22. What help? The Orioles are trying to rebuild in a world where your can't play your minor leaguers. And the last time we saw those minor leaguers less than a handful actually did anything approaching above average with a bat.
  23. We need more info on Zimmerman but what I see so far looking at Fangraphs and Baseball Savant is this: 1. You have a SP with a very bad fastball that is both slow and doesn't really break but that he has to throw. 2. In what I think is an attempt to utilize the highball strategy that TB used to get more out some of their pitchers Zimmerman has primarily been locating his FB up and away which is intended to get flyballs from hitters trying to lift the ball. 3. He is not hitting his spots far enough up or throwing fast enough. What should temper hitters from attacking these FB
  24. How many people on this site wrote him off completely? Its a hot start and we will seebif it lasts but he put up VERY impressive double A numbers.
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