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makoman

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About makoman

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  • Birthday 3/18/1979

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    Forest Hill, MD

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  1. We are 29th in total drives, but 1st in plays, yards, time, and points per drive. We don't have "problems putting the ball in the end zone" so much as we simply don't have the ball as many times as some teams because we routinely have 9 minute drives. Look at the Patriots game--just three drives in the entire second half. 8+ minutes and 9+ minutes for TDs, and the kneels at the end. We are #1 in time of possession including a ridiculous average of over 10 minutes in the 4th quarter. The overall stats may not be super impressive in a vacuum, but the efficiency certainly is. I am certain we don't have that efficiency with an "average" starting QB, the running production, and even just the threat, makes things happen and keeps things alive.
  2. Our #6 prospect could still be that guy. Has 80 BB per 162 games in AA.
  3. My experience is similar. I lived in DC or NoVA from 2000-2008. I didn't really know many O's fans, most people either didn't care about baseball or were fans of other teams, the O's being the closest didn't seem to create a ton of fans as far as I could tell. Sure people would go to a game once in a while just cause it was something to do, but it's just a pain to get to OPACY after a normal work day. I think the Nats coming woke up a lot of people who didn't care that much previously but were happy to follow their own local team, rather than converting people who were already fans of the O's or somebody else.
  4. Wow I didn't realize, .218 BABIP plus 88.4% LOB is crazy.
  5. Yeah, it seems silly, a no brainer. I imagine if CC had stayed with the Indians or Brewers he wouldn’t have “won” this.
  6. Harriet Miers was pushed back due to feelings her appointment was just cronyism, incompetence during meetings with Senators and in particular a lack of any Con Law knowledge, lack of appellate or even litigation experience, and fear by conservatives that she wasn’t going to be anti-Roe enough. She had no redeeming qualities for such a position and wasn’t really a defensible pick. She went to SMU which is like in the 50s, but I don’t recall anyone caring about that at all. Thurgood Marshall went to Howard. Comparable ranking as U of B, in the low 100s. But this whole conversation is just dumb.
  7. Maybe, but the players aren’t exactly known for fighting for the rights of those who aren’t in the union yet. Everyone in the union is already past the service time game.
  8. The point of the model wouldn’t be to pick every good player. The point is to pick them accurately enough to field a good team. If the model misses on the occasional Hader or Boggs that doesn’t mean the model failed. Just like Hader going in the 19th round or Boggs in the 7th doesn’t mean scouts necessarily failed. If the model does better overall then it is a success, even if picks here and there are worse than they could have been. Of course this is going to be incredibly difficult to measure.
  9. I have no idea if projection is model-able. That’s an important point, but I didn’t think he was thinking about the 88 guy who can improve to 96, but more the Moyer type. But yeah I would trust models much more with college kids who are closer to finished products. That may be why we (and the Astros) drafted so college heavy. Picking Hader in the 19th round is exceptional. But that pick isn’t going to work out most of the time. Is it better in the long run to ignore HS kids there and pick Jensen Elliott instead? I don’t know.
  10. I think if you throw 88-90 there isn’t some mystical “it” that’s going to make you a major leaguer. You are going to need plus movement, command, secondaries, or deception, and really some combination of those things. Why can’t a model, which has inputs of things like movement and location and spin, tell us those things? I don’t think moxie is enough to make a straight 88 FB with no command play, so a model with the right inputs gets you most of the way there. A scout can confirm what the model says to finish things off, or help decide who the model looks at to begin with, or break ties in the model, or make makeup adjustments. I don’t think anyone thinks that scouts are obsolete.
  11. Off topic, to put into perspective how things have changed: In 1989 we gave 144 starts to guys with less than 5.5 K/9 (including 75 starts for guys at 2.6/9!). This year we’ve given 1.
  12. Agree. I’m fine locking in till like 31 maybe 32 if needed. You get an extra year or two at an overall decent price with lots of potential excess value. Then go year to year seeing how he’s doing and what position he’s playing. All assuming he indicates in year one he’s going to be a major leaguer that whole time (no reason to expect otherwise so far).
  13. I hope ownership understands the difference between signing an almost 30 year old to a long contract at FA prices, and a young player at a number of years under control extension prices.
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