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Obando

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Obando last won the day on May 26

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  1. I think this has a lot to do with it as well. Bundy has traditionally pitched well against the AL West teams if you look at his track record, and while there are definitely some good teams in that division, it’s collectively not as tough as facing AL East teams have been over the last 4 years, not to mention the AL West ballparks are generally more pitcher friendly than parks like Camden Yards, Fenway & Yankee Stadium. Even Toronto tends to be hitter friendly. Only Tropicana Field can be considered a pitcher friendly park in the AL East, whereas in the AL West, Oakland, Seattle & Anaheim are clear pitcher friendly parks, while Texas & Houston are more borderline, but probably slightly favor the hitters. So I think the park factors, plus Bundy throwing his mediocre fastball about 10% less this year, have all contributed to why he has been so successful, at least so far.
  2. Also you have to keep in mind that Elias and Mejdal came in and didn’t have an existing analytics apparatus in place, so they had to essentially build it from scratch, and they probably didn’t have all the data they needed to properly optimize Bundy’s pitch mix until it was too late. Although to be fair, Bundy was much better in the 2nd half last year, so maybe those were the first signs that he was starting to follow the data and optimize his pitch mix. I think this is the first year we were going to truly see our data & analytics system make a difference with our pitchers, especially at the major league level, now that our internal database is fully in place. Sig’s team was basically building out the data system on the fly last year, and admittedly, they had a lot of catching up to do. Sure, it looks bad right now that Bundy has gotten off to such a good start, but I don’t think it’s fair to say that the O’s were negligent in how they handled him last year. As we all know, Bundy has had really good stretches before, only to then struggle, so consistency was really his issue more than anything else. Clearly the Angels figured out the best way to optimize his pitches and pitch selection, and they deserve credit for that, but I think Bundy was capable of doing the same thing had he still been here this year. Same goes for Mike Yastrzemski had we given him a chance to play here and not traded him away when we did. We’ll just never know for sure because we didn’t get a chance to see it happen.
  3. I’m curious about the PTBNL or cash considerations aspect of the deal. Unless I’m mistaken, in the other trades for PTBNLs, there was no “or cash considerations” aspect of the deal, but in this one there was. Could this be because the Orioles might not be sure yet what they value more in terms of the player they could get back vs. the cash they could receive and want to have time to think it over? It’s not like cash isn’t useful to help pay for other aspects of their operation, so let’s not act like it would be a cop out to accept cash over a mediocre prospect. I’m guessing this is simply about the O’s being given a list of players to choose from as the PTBNL, and they can decide if they prefer one of the players or to get cash instead.
  4. I remember hearing an interview with Elias a few weeks ago and he said that Lowther would have been under consideration for the 60 player pool, but he was dealing with an oblique issue, so they wanted to give that time to heal before they considered adding him. I’m sure whenever he’s deemed healthy, he will be added as long as there’s room still available.
  5. Apparently it’s because he hasn’t been able to get to Baltimore yet to take his physical. Supposedly that will happen either this week or next week, according to Tommy Birch, who is a local sportswriter in Des Moines, Iowa and is in the know. Nothing to worry about. He’s going to sign, unless of course the physical goes poorly. But let’s think positively!
  6. That’s a good point. I read somewhere that Mayo’s bonus is actually more like $1.775M, and Baumler’s was only estimated to be “around” $1.5M, so his could be a little higher as well. I’m guessing Servideo signs for right around slot and the savings leftover from Kjerstad will go toward the Mayo & Baumler bonuses, but we need to see the final numbers once the deals are officially announced before we just assume the O’s are saving $300k on the draft as a whole.
  7. Fangraphs made a mistake with that, as Kjerstad is not a switch hitter. He’s a LH hitter. I don’t think their high ranking of him is based on him being a switch hitter, because he’s not. I think it was just a typo.
  8. This makes sense to me, because Jarvis went to Driveline in the off-season and upgraded his fastball velocity and quality of his off speed pitches. He has the growth mindset that the Orioles front office wants in their players, and Chris Holt has connections with Driveline, so he probably had good inside info on Jarvis’ makeup and insight on the improvements he made. Also, Jarvis got off to a great start this year, and the draft model probably projected him to have a great season if it were to have been played in its entirety. When you add in that Jarvis’ father pitched in the big leagues, giving him good bloodlines, it all makes sense why the Orioles would have had Bryce ranked highly on their board. I think Jarvis & Jared Shuster from Wake Forest were 2 of the pitchers the Orioles were targeting at 30 (Bobby Miller could have been as well), as Elias indicated pitchers that they liked got picked before they made their second pick of the draft. And by the time it got to pick 30, Westburg was clearly the highest rated player on their board.
  9. I don’t think Elias is picking these particular players to save money. I think he is legitimately just picking the best player on their board when it’s their turn to pick. That’s the whole point of having a draft board and ranking players. Obviously, they take asking price into account when making decisions, but the Orioles are now a very analytical team, so value is heavily factored into their decisions. I am going to choose to trust the process rather than complain because they may not pick players that I prefer. I’m sure there is a plan and they aren’t just making these picks blindly. I will admit that I am surprised we haven’t seen a pitcher yet through the first 4 picks though.
  10. I’m hoping the O’s take either Tanner Witt or Masyn Winn at 39, both of which will require over-slot bonuses, but that I think are worth the risk. The O’s should have the firepower to sign either of them with the presumed savings from the Kjerstad and Westburg picks (yes, I expect Westburg to be under slot as well). If we go the college pitching route, I am hoping we pick either Logan Allen or Clayton Beeter, both of whom fit the Orioles pitching philosophy very well. Allen has a longer track record and is less risky, but Beeter has arguably the best curveball in the draft, and a rising 4 seam fastball to boot, although he has an injury history and shorter track record.
  11. It wasn’t so much that Aiken was a bad pitcher, but after the Astros drafted him first overall, they discovered an issue with his elbow on the physical and decided to back out of the deal. It turns out they were right, because Aiken blew his elbow out the following year and hasn’t been right ever since (he got drafted by the Indians in the first round the following year and has struggled in their system). And it worked out for the Astros because they got a compensation pick at #2 the following year for failure to sign Aiken (all picks in the top 3 rounds are protected) and drafted Alex Bregman, who has turned out to be a stud.
  12. John is not his father (Lou doesn’t seem to be either), and that’s a very good thing. He just seems to “get it,” and it’s very refreshing after decades of mismanagement by PGA. If anything, I wish John would talk more with the media, because he’s well spoken and has good ideas and thoughts, but I can also respect that he doesn’t want to be the face of the organization, so he picks his spots. I know it’s still early in his lead ownership role, but so far, I’m very impressed with how he’s handled everything.
  13. Per Ben Badler’s latest Baseball America 2020-2021 J2 International top 40 prospects list, the Orioles are expected to sign a 15-year-old catcher from the Dominican named Samuel Basallo for a bonus of near $1.5M. Basallo, who turns 16 on August 13, is ranked #31 on the top 40 list. He apparently was connected with the Yankees previously, but now he’s expected to sign with the Orioles. This is great news, especially on top of the expectation that we will also sign top SS prospect Maikol Hernandez of Venezuela, who is ranked #35 on this list. The $1.5M bonus for Basallo would be by far the most we’ve given a J2 prospect, not only since Elias became GM, but possibly in the history of the Orioles. If this news doesn’t make it clear that the Orioles are a serious player in Latin America now, I don’t know what will. I am very excited to say the least!
  14. I so badly want this to happen, and I’m convinced the Yankees are cheaters, only no one has outed them yet. I could give numerous examples, but over the years, I have watched too many games where the Yankee hitters react as if they knew exactly what pitch was coming, and even their worst hitters are hitting home runs out of nowhere, and off of good pitchers too. Sure, they could be stealing signs the old fashioned way to know what pitch might be coming, but it just seemed too unlikely and non-coincidental that there has to be something more systematic in place going on behind the scenes. And I think we all know the Blue Jays have cheated in their home stadium for years, as there were always rumors of someone sitting in the stands indicating what pitch was coming to the hitters. It basically became a joke after awhile, but there was definitely something to it. In reality, I think every team in baseball is cheating to some extent or another, but right now, the Astros are taking the most heat for it because other teams and players are jealous of their recent success and don’t like their smugness and self promotion about their process and how they became winners.
  15. I’ve always been convinced that the Yankees are cheaters. How often have we seen average players go there and then turn into studs, with 2019 being a perfect example? Guys like Tauchman, Urshela, & Mike Ford, who were bottom of the roster players and jettisoned by other teams, suddenly become Yankees and turn into studs. Even Didi Gregorius was considered a defense-first player and a mediocre hitter when acquired, suddenly turns into Babe Ruth with the Yankees. Even Aaron Hicks, who looked like a bust with the Twins, comes to the Yankees and becomes one of their better hitters. And typically when Yankee players leave and go elsewhere, especially hitters, they are never as good. Why do you think the Yankees always seem to win trades? Because they artificially make players look better than they are, then trade them once their value is up and actually get a good return, only to see the player not do nearly as well with his new team. Aaron Judge was a strikeout machine in the minors, and even in his first abbreviated year up with the Yankees in 2016. Then 2017 comes around and he’s a completely different hitter that strikes out less and doesn’t miss any mistakes, becoming a perennial HR hitting stud. Coincidence, I think not, which isn’t to discredit his success completely. I know part of this is probably just envy and jealousy at how good the Yankees are and have usually always been, but I seriously think there’s more to it than just they are the big bad Yankees and can outspend every team in baseball. I’m convinced there is some level of cheating going on, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Carlos Beltran had something to do with it, especially in 2019.
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