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Stotle

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Everything posted by Stotle

  1. I'm very sorry, Denise and OH folks, to hear about Michael's passing. He was a very sweet man and kind soul -- may his memory be a blessing to us all. Denise, you and your family will be in our prayers. --Nick
  2. To be clear, my assumption was that the sophomores were drafted at reasonable spots and shouldn't require material additional bonus investment, Willems was max like a $200-300K investment, Cowser at a $200-300K discount, and that included the additional $600K they could spend above the slot amounts. So if they as a rule won't go about total slot, that drops to $1.1-1.7MM. So, if Cowser is slot, that drops it to $.8 - 1.1 MM. Maybe the sophomores actually cost $800K extra between them and Willems is like a$400-500K guy in their mind? I think that's what you'd have to see in order for ther
  3. Possible, but more likely Trimble/Rhodes and even Willems cost way more than expected? If the system points that way and they pan out then nothing to complain about. That's a lot of trust in your modeling, for sure, because there are some traditional measures that would consider those profiles a little more high risk than you'd want to make big over-slot investments in, I'd think.
  4. To me that looks like the Orioles are relying heavily on models and there was better college data (though not perfect) than there was high school data this year because of all of the COVID stuff. I'm still scratching my head about the total spend and trying to figure out how they can spend even their full pool amount, let alone dip into the permitted overage, based on who they drafted. I don't think it's a bad draft I just am not clear as to how they are deploying funds here.
  5. No I think if they were spending they were doing it in the first few rounds today. I have no clue where the money is going. No way I would have expected Trimble/Rhodes to be over-slot picks, and while I don't think Cowser should be a big discount I do think maybe 200-300K is reasonable. There should be a couple million available by my math -- not sure what I'm missing.
  6. Think this is a follow though -- draft in case he changes mind but likely to head back to school and try and win a natty at NC State.
  7. There's 600K the O's can go over without loss of pick. Three college senior signs for slot allotments of over $1M should net your at least $800K in cap room based on when they were taken (they weren't Top 100 type talents that happened to be seniors). Very unlikely Cowser is over-slot and I'd say likely he's slightly under -- maybe 200-300K? -- so just with that you have close to $2MM if room if you want it. Again, maybe Trimble and Rhodes are actually significant over-slot based on asking. I haven't heard that but it's possible.
  8. Hi all -- hope you enjoyed the first two days of draft. By my count Orioles could have up to $2.3MM available and certainly at least $1.7MM. Some of the higher-profile names have pulled their names from the draft but definitely room for up to three high-six-figure to low-seven over-slot kids *averaging* around $700-800K apiece or one big seven figure name and maybe one or two kids with more low-to-mid-six-figure asking prices. Only way there aren't a couple decent over-slot selections today is if Trimble or Rhodes has a high asking price because of age and ability to go back without being "ol
  9. Stotle

    2131

    It was really amazing; goosebumps thinking about it! That whole summer was great.
  10. Stotle

    2131

    I mean, some Orioles dates are so important you have to stop by and say, "Hi", right?
  11. Stotle

    2131

    Same boat -- watched that taped game many many times (even brought it to college with me).
  12. Stotle

    2131

    We went to 2130 and watched 2131 live (and recorded it). I was a junior in HS at Annapolis. My brother and I watched the taped game probably a dozen times over the next two years! It was awesome.
  13. Stotle

    2131

    Hey buddy! I get the sentiment but as Mr. Gehrig is a Yankee and Cal is an Oriole I am cool with how it unfolded! It also helps that Cal went a fair bit past this point, which makes it a pretty strong case it's rightfully his title. Also, Cal had to endure longer seasons, which I consider to be a feather in his cap (albeit with better trainers and conditioning available to him).
  14. Stotle

    2131

    Sorry if there is already a thread elsewhere -- just wanted to stop in and say I can't believe it's been 25 years! Hope y'all are well.
  15. Kind of you to say. It's lost a chunk of folks to teams and is amateur/draft-centric at the moment. Not sure it scales back up to where we've had it on the pro side but it's been fun and I'm thrilled it's helped so many folks get gigs with big league clubs.
  16. Has been a while and wanted to check in!
  17. I like Henderson a lot -- great talent for where they got him. Looking forward to seeing what he does in full season ball.
  18. For my money he's probably the best overall college hitter in the class and will be an average defender at 2b, long term.
  19. It's a huge hill to climb but moving on to Elias has been great. Time will tell if the org can catch up with the likes of the Yankees, but at least it's moving forward and not stuck in neutral.
  20. Risk is tied to certainty in projected grade, so a 50 moderate doesn't mean he's less likely to "bust", it just means that there is greater certainty that 50 is the true outcome grade. 55 high would leave room for up to a full downgrade on the grade depending on stated factors.
  21. I am on the Cape right now and everyone I talked to last night (okay, it was only four or five scouts) could not believe Baltimore did not move Britton. One had a previous connection with the Orioles so I discount his choice words some. I guess Baltimore is hoping Britton's value is higher in the off-season.
  22. I have seen him over the years, but not this spring. Liked him a lot in HS with Team Elite (big GA travel club) as projectable low-90s arm; showed CB/CH; very loose command. Stuff didn't tighten at ASU, still very loose feel. Project for dev staff.
  23. Have heard he isn't set on UNC-W, but the fact he'd only have to stay there two years means he has some leverage. https://2080baseball.com/2017/06/2017-mlb-draft-positional-previews-middle-infielders/
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