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Everything posted by Number5

  1. Before the draft started MLB network did a segment on Kjerstad. Seems like an impressive young man. He mentioned how his adjustments to his swing had paid off and was excited. Martin's coach at Vanderbilt was part of MLB network's broadcast team and just as the draft was about to start he was asked what players he thought we should look for in the draft and the first name he said was Kjerstad. When the Orioles drafted Kjerstad, he said it was a great pick and that the Orioles are going to have to replace a lot of windows in the warehouse. I was looking for Martin, Lacy, or Gonzales at #2, and didn't really know much about Kjerstad before the draft, but I've got to say I'm warming to the guy and maybe some of us aren't willing to consider the possibility that the guy might just be a gem. Interviewed the day before the draft, Elias said he would only go under-slot at #2 if the Orioles had the guy rated as good, or even secretly rated him better, than the players that the various sites had rated at that spot. He went on the say that if that allows us financial leverage later in the draft, so much the better. Well, it looks like that's exactly what they did. I have to admit, I thought "later in the draft" meant pick #30 and/or 39, but now we know he meant much later. I've got no real issue with the players we selected in rounds 1A, 2, and 3, per se, as they are reasonable picks for when they were taken. My question in those cases wasn't who we took, but rather why we didn't go under-slot there. We found out later, of course, that Elias had a plan in rounds 4 and 5. Had we grabbed a guy like Kelley at #30 or 39, maybe there would be less vitriol over the pick of Kjerstad. Or maybe even Wilcox in round 3. I'm not sure why we didn't, but Elias and his team seem excited by the kids we got in rounds 4 and 5, so I hope they are right. I was looking at the possibility of Montgomery and Witt in those 2 late rounds, as they were still there and, in fact, went undrafted. My guess is that perhaps those two were just plain unsignable and had decided that they were going to school. Too soon to make a real judgment, of course, but I'm going to go with a B. Had we gone with Kelley or Wilcox as an over-slot when presented with the opportunities to do so, I'd have been really happy. As it stands, I'm happy, but I'm just not quite as comfortable with the over-slot guys we did get. I hope they change my mind!
  2. At last, that over-slot HS pitcher we've been waiting for. Like hearing Callis use the word "steal" for one of our picks!
  3. I think that cost of college can be added to the $20K.
  4. Carson Montgomery and Tanner Witt are still there.
  5. I get it, Elias/Sig are looking at exit velocity and evidence of 2020 improvement in the few games played. But is it wise to look at only those 2 things? Proprietary analytics are great, but it seems like we've passed on some pretty good players zeroing in on a pretty narrow field. I don't know... hope it works.
  6. I don't know... the Orioles have had some pitchers that had some balls exit in a hurry.
  7. I think that was a comp pick for losing a free agent.
  8. It seems obvious that Wilcox has made it clear that it will take a considerable over-slot offer to sign him, otherwise he'd have been definitely taken by now. Red Sox, Rangers, and Dodgers all look to me to have over-slot money available, so if Wilcox is our target, it seems to me that we'd better grab him at 74.
  9. OK, we made it past the Dodgers. I've got my fingers crossed! Of course, we don't really know if Wilcox is even on Elias' radar.
  10. We can hope. I'm worried about the Dodgers at #66. They just took a 5th year senior, so they may be able to pay quite a bit to an over-slot guy.
  11. The guys on MLB.com said the opposite - they said the guy has power and profiles as a 20/20 starting CF, Somebody is wrong. I hope it's Law (again).
  12. Hudson Haskin. College Outfielder. Looks like we are really looking for college power guys. We either aren't looking over-slot at all or we think some will drop to later rounds. Surprising.
  13. Thanks, Tony. I've got to say Kelley looks really enticing to me. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-prospect-jared-kelley-facts-to-know
  14. Tony, why are you higher on Fulton and McMahon than Kelley and Wilcox? What are your concerns on the latter two?
  15. Perhaps you are right, but I'd hardly say that all indications point to that.
  16. Rutschman's slot savings was $315K (8.1 million vs. 8.415.}. Do you think that amount makes a dent on moving Kelley to sign now that we are into round 2 and slot money is a lot lower than it would have been where Kelley was being mocked? Tork's rep is Boras, so how likely is it that he signs for a lot more under slot that Rutsch did? Sometimes it's OK to answer realistically rather than hedging, Corn. None of us have inside knowledge on any of these factors.
  17. Do you believe that Tork will sign under slot by enough to allow Detroit to be able to sign Kelley? My guess is that Tork signs for an amount a lot closer to full slot that an amount low enough to make Kelley signable for the Tigers.
  18. Law mocked Westburg at #26 to Oakland. The Orioles have now drafted Westburg at #30 and Law has negative things to say about Elias. You are giving Law way too much credit. I don't pretend to know what Elias is planning, but if he goes under-slot at #39, it makes sense to me why he would have taken Westburg at #30 and the under-slot at #39, since doing it in that order gives the higher likelihood of securing both. Two teams have selected a college SS after our #30 pick. We have no way of knowing if they would have selected Westburg over the player they drafted, but it does at least show that taking Westburg at that point rather than hoping to get him at #39 looks like a sound decision, assuming the Orioles wanted Westburg. Getting Jared Kelley at #39 would be an amazing coup, IMO. Coming away with Kjerstad, Kelley, and Westburg would be brilliant, IMO. I'm hoping that is the plan. Detroit will almost surely go full slot for Tork, so they don't appear to be able to go over-slot for Kelley; and it doesn't seem likely that Kelley would sign for slot money at this point. Carson Montgomery looks like a good over-slot candidate, as well, if either the Tigers surprise and take Kelley or Elias just isn't as high on Kelley. Having said all that, maybe Elias and Sig are just really high on Kjerstad and they pay him closer to full slot than I'm thinking. Either Wilcox or McMahon would be a good pick at #39 if that is the case. I like both of those guys, but I really like what I've read about Kelley and hope the over-slot strategy is indeed what is in play here. I suppose that Elias could take Wilcox or McMahon and count on the unsignability of Kelley and/or Montgomery to allow them to slip to #74, but that seems overly risky to me. We will find out soon..
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