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Sydnor

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79 Low A-Ball

About Sydnor

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  • Birthday 11/18/1980

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  1. I suspect Wilcox is looking for an overslot deal as a draft eligible sophomore. He has the leverage to go back to school (as does JT Ginn).
  2. I think Law was suggesting that the savings from Kjerstad should’ve enabled the O’s to go over slot at both 30 and 39. Perhaps they will go over slot at 39 and 74. I’m somewhat skeptical that they’re going to spend their full allotment, but will be happy to be wrong (I’m aware that they’ve traditionally spent the full allotment, but this is a different year with Covid and the new presence in Latin America). We will find out!
  3. Keith Law on Westburg and the underslot strategy: If that pick was to save money, rather than a straight preference for Kjerstad, they didn’t take advantage of it at pick 30, the first selection of the Competitive Balance A round, where they took Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg, a very good athlete who also strikes out too much and has to work on pitch recognition as well as reducing his leak at the plate. https://theathletic.com/1865805/2020/06/10/law-thoughts-and-analysis-from-day-1-of-the-mlb-draft/?source=user_shared_article
  4. Cole Wilcox, Markevian Hence, David Calabrese, or Masyn Winn.
  5. Exactly. I just can’t get over it. It feels like they just drafted a potential platoon DH at 1-2.
  6. I don’t care what they do with the rest of the draft. I could not be more disappointed in this pick. He struck out 22% of the time and 7th most in the SEC. I said I wouldn’t meltdown over Gonzales and meant it. I saw Keith Law mention this rumor, but never believed it. I won’t meltdown over this pick, but I won’t be watching the remainder of the draft.
  7. While true, no scouts are saying that Martin’s swing will need to be rebuilt because of an extreme crouch, that he lacks the athleticism to play a premium position, or that he would be a reach at the number 2 pick. Martin could bust. However if people read this and think that Stewart’s plate discipline hasn’t transferred (and I’m not sure he’s ever been given a fair chance), so Martin will end up a AAAA player (I’m not saying that you are saying this, only that it could be interpreted that way), there are plenty of reasons why Stewart’s lack of major league success is not predictive of whether Martin will succeed.
  8. One of the interesting things about the Martin debate is that during the DD era, a lot os felt like the O’s players’ struck out too much and lacked plate discipline. Martin’s stats have been posted a number of times, but he seems to be what a lot of posters have wanted for years—a player with excellent plate discipline and good athleticism. Last year he had a .486 OBP with 40 walks and only 34 strikeouts. Kiley McDaniel writes: Martin's calling card is his plus-plus contact skills and plate discipline, which help him get to all of his solid average raw power in games, for 15-20 homers most years. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29251325/updated-2020-mlb-draft-rankings-latest-top-150-players Eric Longerhagen writes: He already had two traits that together make for a strong profile in that Martin is likely to play a premium position (though where exactly is up for debate, his arm was not great early in 2020 and he moved from 3B to CF) and has a plus-plus feel for the strike zone. He had more walks than strikeouts as a sophomore and started hitting for power late in that season, something his combination of selectivity and gorgeous, natural swing loft give him an excellent chance of doing in pro ball despite middling raw juice. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0 Keith Law also called Martin a plus runner with electric hands. I’m certainly not saying he’s a sure thing and I’ve previously written that I won’t melt down if Gonzales is drafted, but it seems to me that this is the type of player a lot of people (myself included) have wanted on the O’s and I almost feel like the O’s would be overthinking it to go in a different direction (assuming Tork is drafted by Detroit, though I prefer Martin over Tork and will probably look incredibly stupid for saying that).
  9. An older take, but given where we are, perhaps not much has changed. To be clear, I prefer Martin. I’m only saying that I’m not going to melt down if the O’s select Gonzales.
  10. I would usually post this on the Amateur Draft forum, but Martin has generated a fair amount of discussion here, so I decided to post it in this thread. If it should be moved there, I apologize. In Kiley McDaniel’s Mock Draft 2.0, he indicates that there is a 50% chance the Orioles select Martin and a 40% chance they go under slot and select Nick Gonzales. McDaniel writes: “This pick is expected once again to come down to a Boras client who is the consensus best talent at the pick (Martin) and a player who fits this team's preferences and will be much cheaper without being seen as a big drop-off in talent (New Mexico State 2B Nick Gonzales).” He notes that he would bet on the more talented Martin being taken, but references the Correa pick allowing Houston to select McCullers. He also notes that the O’s are linked to Dax Fulton (Fulton was seen as a mid-first-round selection before TJ surgery this summer) with their second pick and would need savings for that (he has the O’s selecting Fulton at 30), https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29216982/kiley-mcdaniel-2020-mlb-mock-draft-20 I’d be happy with Martin or Gonzales. I think Gonzales is underrated given his performance last summer on the Cape and scouting reports, but still prefer Martin. I’m certainly not saying that Martin becomes Machado, but a lot of this discussion Martin/pitcher discussion reminds me of Machado/Taillon. I’ll take the guy who had a 1.091 OPS with a .486 OBP (last year). Martin/Fulton seems like a great start to the draft (but I’m certainly not a scout).
  11. Kiley McDaniel has the O’s selecting Austin Martin at No. 2. He noted that Nick Gonzales is heavily rumored to be the backup option “if the prices on Martin and Torkelson are thought to be too high” (Martin and Torkelson are both represented by Boras Crop.). At pick No. 30, he has the O’s selecting Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/29154256/kiley-mcdaniel-2020-mlb-mock-draft-10
  12. I think teams will be smart enough to know that Gonzales isn’t solely a product of altitude and lesser competition. For example, in the Cape Cod league he hit .351/.451/.630 (I can’t find an OPS+) with 7 HRs, 6 SBs, and won the league MVP. He also walked 20 times against 22 strikeouts. I also haven’t heard that Gonzales “is not known for his defense.” I’d like to know where you heard that. I have heard that he is unlikely to stick at shortstop, but that he should be solid at second. For example, Keith Law who ranks him number 4 overall wrote: Gonzales hit five homers in a game this season, albeit at 3900 feet above sea level; he can hit, and is likely to hit more for average than for big power, with a potential move to second down the road. https://theathletic.com/1670438/2020/03/16/keith-laws-top-30-prospects-for-the-2020-mlb-draft/?article_source=search&search_query=Keith law Baseball America wrote that he is a solid defender at second. Is Gonzales my favorite pick at number 2 at this point? Probably not. However, I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Orioles picked him and probably prefer him to everyone other than Torkelson and Martin. Also, regarding Hancock, Law prefers Lacy and noted some red flags on Hancock: Hancock was mentioned by scouts as a possible 1-1 pick before the season, but hasn’t come out strongly, between a rougher delivery, reduced command, and a lot more use of his two sliders than his plus (or better) changeup.
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