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Everything posted by Tryptamine

  1. So in typical Astro fashion, Aaron Sanchez makes his debut and puts up a 6IP 0H 0ER 2BB 6K line. It's almost unfair at this point.
  2. His days of hitting the upper 90s are gone. Too fragile, too many injuries and he's sit more lower to mid 90s these days. I very much doubt his arm could handle going back to back days.
  3. With Freeman at 1st and two nearly MLB ready OF prospects in baseball's top 30 prospects I can't imagine they'd want a long term option. As soon as 2020 they could be looking at an Acuna/Pache/Waters OF which would be pretty insane.
  4. That would make me vomit. Sogard's numbers hide that he's still a terrible hitter who has been tremendously lucky.
  5. You're not going to sniff either of Gavin Lux or Dustin May and probably not Keibert Ruiz or Will Smith but I could see someone like Tony Gonsolin/Jeter Downs/Josiah Gray leading a package.
  6. The kids in the minors badly need to form their own union. There should never be a case where people are represented by those who are working for other's best interest in not your own.
  7. I think you're kidding yourself if you think the handlers are just going to disappear. The kids still need some place to practice, access to gear, exposure to MLB scouts. The handlers can provide all of that.
  8. Yup the owners really needed more money and at the cost of the kids who almost definitely wont ever sniff even 1% of the owner's wealth. Anything and every to make sure the free market system doesn't exist in any form.
  9. That would be a haul and I honestly don't expect it to be that much. Allen by himself is a very nice piece top 100 guy(73 on most recent BA list) and MLB ready.
  10. Not really. Feldman had a 3.46ERA 3.93FIP 3.83xFIP when the Cubs traded him to the Orioles. Cashner has a 3.83ERA 4.25FIP 4.88xFIP.
  11. Frankly it's a really really bad idea as the hit rate on J2 talent is even worse than the rule 4 draft. When you're in talent acquisition phase you don't worry about where the talent comes from or what position they play.
  12. Definitely is. While I don't think he brings back a guy sniffing the top 100, he should at least bring back a somewhat intriguing guy.
  13. Moving prospects before you have an answer at that position in the majors is usually not a good idea. Just stock pile the heck out of the minors and if one of them comes up to MLB and then performs, then you consider dealing the depth.
  14. There's a pretty drastic difference in their peripherals. FIP: Means 3.93 Boyd 3.56 xFIP: Means 5.14 Boyd 3.33 SIERA Means 4.67 Boyd 3.17 K/9: Means 7.51 Boyd 11.94 BB/9 Means 2.40 Boyd 1.68 Boyd's peripherals make his performance look a lot more sustainable
  15. I think it's pretty silly to think that all of this sudden just now in 2019 did all these players collectively started taking PEDs. AAA is all the proof I need to know it's the ball.
  16. It's not just the stats that are the issue. The game is just boring to watch now. Homeruns were special things, but now you see 3 or 4 just about every game. If I remember right the Phillies/Mets had something crazy like 13 in a game earlier this year.
  17. I'm really not sure what the Cubs would do with Mancini. Sure the offense would improve but then they would have perhaps the single worst OF defensively in baseball. Schwarber is at best just average. Heyward is great in RF but below average in CF and Mancini is certainly lacking in RF. Lester would have an aneurysm.
  18. Verlander has been ridiculously lucky so far. A 90.7LOB% is more than 15% over his career average and his .181babip isn't even remotely sustainable, his career number is .281.
  19. Granted half a season of defensive metrics hasn't stabilized yet, but a -10 DRS through 394.2IP in RF is pretty awful. He's only -1 with 210.0IP at 1B which is tolerable.
  20. No, the balls are 100% juiced. The numbers in A,A+ and AA haven't changed, but the numbers in AAA have gone crazy. The only thing different in AAA this year is they switched to the same ball as MLB.
  21. Half a season of play has happened. Names emerge, players emerge, regress etc. There's a number of guys who a lot of other organizations would love to have (Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez, Brennen Davis, Kohl Franklin, Aramis Ademan, Tyson Miller,Adbert Alzolay etc etc). Btw, They are ranked anywhere from 21 to 29 depending on where you look, but after this year I'd bet they're safely around the 20ish mark.
  22. Not top 15 for sure, but you're definitely underestimating it as far as "sucks".
  23. Nico most definitely wouldn't be on the table. In fact with Zobrist contract over and Descalso looking like he's going to be DFA'd, Nico might be the Cub 2B very early in 2020. All he does is rake.
  24. This isn't going to be near as in depth as it should be but these are the things I look at to see indications of a player's real performance and indicators of future success. Hitters: BB%- Ideally you want to see a guy around 10% but it's not set in stone as there are some rare players who can succeed at very low BB rates like Baez and Jones K%- Ideally you want to see 20% or less, but like BB% it's not 100% necessary as guys like Baez and Gallo succed despite them. wRC+- a real good way to measure hitters against the rest of the field where 100 is your average MLB hitter and a 120 means 20% better than the average. Park is factored in. wOBA+- Because OPS weights SLG far too heavily wOBA gives us a better indication of performance. Quality of Contact- featuring Soft%, Med%,Hard% tracking these numbers from year to year is a good way to see if the player has actually changed something BABIP- Very misunderstood. While roughly .300 is the average babip, it varies greatly depending on quality of contact. Guys who hit laser beams like Freeman can sustain a .350 while guys who hit a huge amount of flyballs like Khris Davis often hold babip far below the .300. HR/FB%- Something to keep an eye on as sometimes a guy like Austin Riley will burst on the scene and have something crazy like a 35% HR/FB which just isn't sustainable by anyone. Pitchers: FIP: Shows a pitcher's performance for the things that they can control. Eliminates defense, irregular LOB%, irregular babip etc. Does not factor in those who have the skill to induce weak contact which is its biggest flaw. SIERA: Very similar to FIP but it takes quality of contact into its calculation so I like it more K%: Usually a better indicator of future success though not entirely necessary K/BB%: A must to be successful. Most elite pitches are at least 3:1 I'm not going to talk much about them, but defensive measurements need very large sample sizes to normalize. Sometimes as much as a couple years so don't take any few months or half season too seriously.
  25. The point of exit velocity is that it gives you an indication of the quality of contact a player makes so if you see a player with excellent exit velocity averages but very marginal numbers, there's a significant chance that his numbers will trend up.
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