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Everything posted by Tryptamine

  1. I think it's pretty silly to think that all of this sudden just now in 2019 did all these players collectively started taking PEDs. AAA is all the proof I need to know it's the ball.
  2. It's not just the stats that are the issue. The game is just boring to watch now. Homeruns were special things, but now you see 3 or 4 just about every game. If I remember right the Phillies/Mets had something crazy like 13 in a game earlier this year.
  3. I'm really not sure what the Cubs would do with Mancini. Sure the offense would improve but then they would have perhaps the single worst OF defensively in baseball. Schwarber is at best just average. Heyward is great in RF but below average in CF and Mancini is certainly lacking in RF. Lester would have an aneurysm.
  4. Verlander has been ridiculously lucky so far. A 90.7LOB% is more than 15% over his career average and his .181babip isn't even remotely sustainable, his career number is .281.
  5. Granted half a season of defensive metrics hasn't stabilized yet, but a -10 DRS through 394.2IP in RF is pretty awful. He's only -1 with 210.0IP at 1B which is tolerable.
  6. No, the balls are 100% juiced. The numbers in A,A+ and AA haven't changed, but the numbers in AAA have gone crazy. The only thing different in AAA this year is they switched to the same ball as MLB.
  7. Half a season of play has happened. Names emerge, players emerge, regress etc. There's a number of guys who a lot of other organizations would love to have (Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez, Brennen Davis, Kohl Franklin, Aramis Ademan, Tyson Miller,Adbert Alzolay etc etc). Btw, They are ranked anywhere from 21 to 29 depending on where you look, but after this year I'd bet they're safely around the 20ish mark.
  8. Not top 15 for sure, but you're definitely underestimating it as far as "sucks".
  9. Nico most definitely wouldn't be on the table. In fact with Zobrist contract over and Descalso looking like he's going to be DFA'd, Nico might be the Cub 2B very early in 2020. All he does is rake.
  10. This isn't going to be near as in depth as it should be but these are the things I look at to see indications of a player's real performance and indicators of future success. Hitters: BB%- Ideally you want to see a guy around 10% but it's not set in stone as there are some rare players who can succeed at very low BB rates like Baez and Jones K%- Ideally you want to see 20% or less, but like BB% it's not 100% necessary as guys like Baez and Gallo succed despite them. wRC+- a real good way to measure hitters against the rest of the field where 100 is your average MLB hitter and a 120 means 20% better than the average. Park is factored in. wOBA+- Because OPS weights SLG far too heavily wOBA gives us a better indication of performance. Quality of Contact- featuring Soft%, Med%,Hard% tracking these numbers from year to year is a good way to see if the player has actually changed something BABIP- Very misunderstood. While roughly .300 is the average babip, it varies greatly depending on quality of contact. Guys who hit laser beams like Freeman can sustain a .350 while guys who hit a huge amount of flyballs like Khris Davis often hold babip far below the .300. HR/FB%- Something to keep an eye on as sometimes a guy like Austin Riley will burst on the scene and have something crazy like a 35% HR/FB which just isn't sustainable by anyone. Pitchers: FIP: Shows a pitcher's performance for the things that they can control. Eliminates defense, irregular LOB%, irregular babip etc. Does not factor in those who have the skill to induce weak contact which is its biggest flaw. SIERA: Very similar to FIP but it takes quality of contact into its calculation so I like it more K%: Usually a better indicator of future success though not entirely necessary K/BB%: A must to be successful. Most elite pitches are at least 3:1 I'm not going to talk much about them, but defensive measurements need very large sample sizes to normalize. Sometimes as much as a couple years so don't take any few months or half season too seriously.
  11. The point of exit velocity is that it gives you an indication of the quality of contact a player makes so if you see a player with excellent exit velocity averages but very marginal numbers, there's a significant chance that his numbers will trend up.
  12. Not that I have any attachment to Giambrone or the perpetually hurt De La Cruz, but where would Villar play? The Cubs have Baez,Russell,Descalso,Bote and the newly promoted Robel Garcia who can all play a combination of 2b or SS. That also doesn't account for either Happ or Zobrist who is rumored to be coming back in August or September. If the Cubs need a bat a CFer would be great so Almora's no hitting ass can go somewhere else and Heyward can stick to RF where he's still good defensively.
  13. So, I'm not 100% sure, but a number of people are saying the international slot the Orioles traded to the Cubs is a 2019/20 slot and not a 2018/19. Considering the Cubs have already exceeded their budget by signing just 3 players, I'm starting to think that's likely true.
  14. Umm, Ivey hasn't pitched since May 17th and there has been zero news anywhere about what the situation is. I highly doubt anyone is trading for him right now. Also, the Astros have better options in the minors.
  15. K rate down 4%, BB% up slightly, Hard% up nearly 4%, Line Drive% up 5%, less pull happy and a juiced ball. All things that spell better results.
  16. About zero chance the Yanks would offer that. Yeah Frazier sucks in the field, but he's also 24 years old and putting up an .843 OPS with 4 more years of control. Bundy, on the other hand, put up a 5.17FIP last year and 4.99 this year while being only under contract for 2 more years.
  17. Why would the Orioles want to start his clock in a year where they have no way of being competitive? At earliest you're probably looking like 3 or 4 weeks into the 2021 season like the Cubs did with Kris Bryant so they gain the extra year of control. Then again I believe 2021 is when the new player/owner negotiations take place so who knows what new rules will be in pace or if there will be any games to play.
  18. Intentionally benching a player to keep him from an option or bonus is how you make sure that no one wants to sign with you in FA down the road.
  19. The last thing the MiLB kids need is another way for the owners to screw them over. It's bad enough the NA kids have to deal with this slot stupidity in the current draft.
  20. Among qualifed starters: 4.60FIP(66th) 5.08xFIP(74th) 5.15SIERA(72nd) Even if the Orioles ate money you'd be lucky to get a lottery ticket back. He's not the kind of guy anyone would throw in a play off game.
  21. FIP isn't supposed to be predictive. FIP merely demonstrates how the pitcher has done in the things that they can control. Also, in reference to the post you quoted suggesting xFIP is better than FIP, xFIP is very flawed in that it assumes that all pitchers will give up a 10.5 HR/FB%. While certain pitchers due to both ability, pitch types and pitching style will consistently put up lower or higher HR/FB%. Personally I prefer SIERA, but FIP is a very nice tool to get a better idea than ERA of how a pitcher actually has pitched. With that said, FIP is also flawed in that it doesn't account for pitchers who induce weak contact as a skill like Kyle Hendricks.
  22. Not to be a wet blanket, but the peripherals are still pretty worrisome. Even if we include just those last 8 starts we're still looking at a 4.24FIP and 4.55xFIP. He's been getting propped up by a .226babip and 79.2LOB%. That's not to say there haven't been some good signs. His Hard% is down to 27.1% from 34.6% last year and his Soft% is slightly up. As is usually the case, the reality is some where between the 4.24FIP and 3.02ERA he has posted in that 8 game stretch.
  23. Tryptamine

    WAR is a JOKE

    Career wOBA: Trout .418 Alomar .359 Career wRC+ Trout 172 Alomar 118 They aren't even in the same universe offensively. Trout also plays a more demanding defensive position and while Alomar had a period of very high level defense at 2B, Trout is well above average in CF
  24. You realize that the vast majority of people are unable to react in time to a 90mph baseball coming at them when they know it's going to be coming at them let alone not expecting it? In fact a ball released from a pitcher's hand at 95mph reaches the plate in .395 seconds. The average person takes .4 seconds to blink.
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