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Tryptamine

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Posts posted by Tryptamine

  1. Among qualifed starters:

    4.60FIP(66th)

    5.08xFIP(74th)

    5.15SIERA(72nd)

    Even if the Orioles ate money you'd be lucky to get a lottery ticket back. He's not the kind of guy anyone would throw in a play off game.

  2. 18 hours ago, Frobby said:

    https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-and-siera/

    Truth is, none of them are all that predictive.    Slightly better than ERA, but not enough to be really worth the bother IMO.   

    FIP isn't supposed to be predictive. FIP merely demonstrates how the pitcher has done in the things that they can control. Also,  in reference to the post you quoted suggesting xFIP is better than FIP, xFIP is very flawed in that it assumes that all pitchers will give up a 10.5 HR/FB%. While certain pitchers due to both ability, pitch types and pitching style will consistently put up lower or higher HR/FB%. Personally I prefer SIERA, but FIP is a very nice tool to  get a better idea than ERA of how a pitcher actually has pitched. With that said, FIP is also flawed in that it doesn't account for pitchers who induce weak contact as a skill like Kyle Hendricks.

    • Upvote 1
  3. Not to be a wet blanket, but the peripherals are still pretty worrisome. Even if we include just those last 8 starts we're still looking at a 4.24FIP and 4.55xFIP. He's been getting propped up by a .226babip and 79.2LOB%. That's not to say there haven't been some good signs. His Hard% is down to 27.1% from 34.6% last year and his Soft% is slightly up. As is usually the case, the reality is some where between the 4.24FIP and 3.02ERA he has posted in that 8 game stretch.

  4. Career wOBA:

    Trout .418

    Alomar .359

     

    Career wRC+

    Trout 172

    Alomar 118

     

    They aren't even in the same universe offensively. Trout also plays a more demanding defensive position and while Alomar had a period of very high level defense at 2B, Trout is well above average in CF

  5. On 6/2/2019 at 10:43 AM, Satyr3206 said:

    I disagree about the netting. If parents and adults pay attention they should be able to protect the kids. I have been to hundreds of games and have never been hit by a foul ball. Get your eyes off the phones and watch the game. You can't protect everyone from everything.

    You realize that the vast majority of people are unable to react in time to a 90mph baseball coming at them when they know it's going to be coming at them let alone not expecting it? In fact a ball released from a pitcher's hand at 95mph reaches the plate in .395 seconds. The average person takes .4 seconds to blink.

  6. 5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

    That's kind of like the hard floor they have in place at about $14M.  I think when people envision floors and caps they mean something like $80M and $150M.  In other words, things that appear to be exceptionally unlikely.

    That would cost players a ton of money. There's no reason to let the owners make even more.

  7. Not sure I understand why Abrams is ok, but not Vaughn. Yeah, Abrams has crazy speed and very good defense but the bat is a big question mark. Vaughn is a much safer pick with elite offensive potential. Yeah he doesn't play a premium position but it doesn't matter how good your defense is if you can't hit.

    • Upvote 2
  8. 55 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

    IMO

    The guys have an agent that is stalling to get them the most money possible.

    Their agent has been brilliant playing the team that almost has to win to save face(Orioles) against the team with new ownership who needs to make a move to make up for gutting their MLB squad(MIA). I can't believe Mesa is going to end up getting  top 5 draft pick money.That's pretty crazy.

  9. 6 hours ago, backwardsk said:

    Bryant turned down 200M+, reportedly.

    I can't imagine them being able to get adequate pitching if they commit a billion dollars to three position players.

    I really doubt they change the pitching. I do believe they bring back Hamels for his 2019 option tough. That means they've got Lester,Hendricks,Quintana,Darvish,Hamels,Montgomery,Smyly,Chatwood. That's more than enough to get it done.

  10. 12 minutes ago, weams said:

    Ok then! Enjoy him. 

    I'm just curious to why you don't think it will work out. Obviously this year wasn't great as his shoulder injury held him back a great deal, but he still put up 2.3fWAR after 3 years of 6.1, 7.9 and 6.7.

  11. Although landing both would be hilarious, they wont be doing that. My guess is they go hard after Harper, pick up Hamels' $20M option, pick up a reliever or two and then they'll find themselves well above the $206M threshold for 2019. I also expect them to package someone like Almora with Chatwood in order to get someone to take his deal.

  12. 8 hours ago, tntoriole said:

    And so, the Nationals being to trade away x dollars to the Marlins because they can’t spend more than 300,000 since they apparently spent too much the last time ...until all the slot amounts get turned in and then they go away and our slot dollars are no longer more than everybody elses...They should just have an international draft system. 

    There's no need to put even more money in the owner's pockets and that's all a draft does. It's 'a league wide system to control player costs. These international kids already lose 20/30% of their signing bonus to their "handlers",

  13. if it wasn't for the fact that basically all the other talent is gone other than Mesa/Gaston, I don' think missing out on Mesa would be a bad thing at all. The more reports come out the more he sounds like a good, not great prospect. I don't think anyone is going to look back in two years and lament not landing him.

  14. Based on needs, I tink Kim Ng as President and Jason McLeod as GM would do the organization a world of good. They both have their own niches where they've independently very strong and McLeod already has experience in doing exactly what it is Baltimore is wanting to do. Up until this year I would have said he wasn't available, as he has turned down every promotion offered since coming to the Cubs, but I think the mystique is wearing off after this disappointing season.

  15. On 9/14/2018 at 11:46 AM, cnmilton said:

    Hopefully the O's go out, sign both brothers, as well as Gaston, and call it an international season

    Probably going to catch a lot of flack for this, but the Orioles really aren't the organization that should be signing a guy like Gaston unless they're doing it strictly with intent to move him to another team.Right now the kid is a one trick pony. He's a fastball that hits triple digits at 16 years old, but outside of that he has basically nothing. No offspeed pitches that approach average, no command that approaches average, subpar mechanics, etc etc. Gaston is going to have to be built from the ground up and quite frankly an organization like the Orioles hasn't really shown that they're suited for that type of challenge. 

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  16. 2 hours ago, ORIOLE33 said:

    Sounds like no one cares about Acuna getting hit ON PURPOSE!!! But if you retaliate, you’re a psychopath and should be put in jail. Are you serious? 

     

    This is precisely such a big deal because it was Acuna and no one wants to see a young star injured. With that said, you need to let the comissioner's office handle the punishment. You do not hurl a hard ball at great velocity with intent to hit a man who had nothing to do with the situation. These pitchers are human and they miss their spots, you could end up shattering the batter's wrist and ending his career or hitting him in the head and killing him all because of some macho meatball nonsense that he never had anything to do with.   

  17. I keep thinking back to what may have been if  Kris Bryant doesn't retweak his shoulder and have to go to the DL for an extended time. Davide Bote was being dangled to a numbers of teams, but when Bryant went down the Cubs had to keep him to fill in. Not sure what it would have looked like, but I don't think it's  unrealistic that Bote would have been an Oriole as the Cubs were interested in Gausman.

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