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65 Low A-Ball

About Filmstudy

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  • Birthday 5/31/1963

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  1. Remarkable. That 1948 opening-series sweep cost the Red Sox the AL pennant. They finished the regular season tied with the Indians and famously lost the 1-game playoff when Joe McCarthy decided to start 8-7 Denny Galehouse over Mel Parnell and others. I'll be perfectly happy if history repeats itself in 2021.
  2. Thanks for the tweet-worthy thought, @now
  3. In terms of slow, slower, slowest, the recent pitcher he reminds me of is Sergio Romo. But Sergio Romo maintained an impressive K/BB ratio for many years and Valdez has done it for the last 9 innings of his career. Incredibly, Sergio Romo is just 2 years older than Valdez.
  4. I appreciate you researching, but you should certainly expand the range in both directions, not try to find the first wining percentage at which there was a 5% occurrence of a 10-7 start. That's statistical cherry picking. Also, do you think it's compelling that 1 of 46 teams that finished with a winning percentage between .320 and .339 began the season 10-7? That observed probability is actually 2.2%, lower than the 2.3% expected from random binomial draws of a .325 team. If we assumed .330 was the average win percentage of the group, we'd expect 2.5% to start with a record of 10-7 o
  5. Good to see the math approach. First step in determining if the model is reasonable is to determine if .325 can be a reasonable estimate for a team that goes 10-7 in the first 17 games. The chance of a .325 team going 10-7 or better in the first 17 games of a season is only 2.3%, so I'd argue we've already seen a level of statistical significance that the Orioles do not truly have a team with .325 talent. Said otherwise, the hypothesis that the Orioles are a .325 winning percentage team can already be rejected at the 90%, 95%, or even 97.5% confidence level. Taking another approach
  6. This is in stark contract to Fangraphs including the 8/13 win: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds Where the Orioles are shown with a 16.0% chance to make the postseason, worst in the AL East. Further fascinating is that Fangraphs estimates their probability of a WS win at 0.0%. For that to be true (assuming rounding is handled normally), they would have to have less than a 1 in 320 shot of winning the WS if they make the playoffs. In my estimation, the Fangraphs model is not granting credibility to 2020 play at a fast enough rate nor capturing the chance a team like
  7. For the season now: 49 IP, 25 H, 13 BB, 59 Ks, 0.78 WHIP, 4 HRs, .148 opp BA. Rutschman did allow a steal while he was pitching, so we know he can't hold runners on (sarcasm). Anyone looking at his stats would note terrific progression from 2018, so some of the "no progression" comments must be qualitative. His age dif is -0.4 for Aberdeen this season, so he's still a little young for the league.
  8. On June 27th, the Orioles had a 3-25 record in games decided by 5+ runs. Since then, they are 8-6 in such games. The stretch began with the most lopsided consecutive shutout wins in MLB history on 6/28-29 and included the longest streak of consecutive multi-HR games in MLB history. Fans of the 1916 Giants could probably relate, but they are all gone now.
  9. Rebuilding means the question must be asked for each player...Can he contribute to the next Orioles champion (or contender if you like). Villar will probably be at least 31 when the Orioles next contend (assumes 2022 or later). At that point, he won't be nearly as good a player and he's just an average player right now (.500 162WAA this season). I think part of the misunderstanding of Villar's value is in difficulty of using WAR arising from its arbitrary replacement level. The 1.7 WAR means only that a team that would otherwise play .294 ball would improve by 1.7 wins given his contr
  10. I agree entirely with the notion that wins later are worth more than wins now or in 2020, so I think 10 for 8 would make sense and 10 for 10 would be terrific. However, I think there is some overvaluation of Mancini here (meaning in the thread i general, not from @Can_of_corn who I believe asked a hypothetical question. He's a likable player, but he has a decent but unspectacular OBP, plays on the far right of the defensive spectrum where the Orioles have accumulated a logjam of players, and has negative defensive value. What's worse, his OPS is his strongest category and most of that 1
  11. Not in his case specifically, but it's a due diligence item for prospects born outside the US. If you saw Brooks play, then you know about all the BS with ages from the Dominican Republic that messed up expectations for a generation of position players. My original post was a legitimate question, not an accusation.
  12. I did not read through all 20 pages of responses here, but I have 1 major question with the trade; How certain are the Orioles of Diaz's age? At 21, the deal looks decent with a couple of OBP prospects with power. However, if Diaz were really 23, he'd be a hell of a lot less of a prospect. Does anyone know if the media has questioned the Orioles on this topic?
  13. The 125 DP was one of the key plays in this game and they are extremely rare to say the least. Per @Yoshi2052, That was the first in the major leagues since 5/7/06, when David Eckstein hit into one with Sidney Ponson being the out at the plate (weirdly, for outs #2 and #3 of the inning): https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/FLO/FLO200605070.shtml Also per @Yoshi2052, Rick Dempsey hit into a 125 DP on 7/27/83: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CAL/CAL198307270.shtml In other words, they are far rarer than cycles, no-hitters, 3-HR games, etc.
  14. RIP, Lee. Gone way too young at 74. My favorite Lee May memory isn't one of his grand slams with the Orioles, it was his sac bunt versus Jim Kern 6/10/79. That was the key to a 3-run rally vs. the Rangers to win 5-4, the first of 3 straight home games won with 3-run, 9th-inning comebacks. His bunt and Kern's throw to the vacated 3rd base was the start of the magic that season for me, although Decinces' HR would come 12 days later in the next home game vs. the Tigers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL197906100.shtml
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