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TheBandit

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About TheBandit

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    Plus Member Since August 2009
  • Birthday 9/14/1985
  1. I wasn't attempting to tell you not to comment, but I am trying to tell you that this is the data sample that I went after. If you can find and want to post ballpark factors, feel free, but it won't come from me. The research was for my own purposes; I just simply published it for discussion.
  2. True power hitters still get their home runs. It is the gap power guys like a Markakis or Snyder that are hurt by the ballpark. Markakis never saw this stadium, so we can only guess how he would've done. Reimold had no problem because he was a pull hitting power hitter. If you keep it down the lines, you'll get your HR's. It does show that the Orioles have not, in the past 3 years, had a power hitting prospect come through Norfolk (which we are well aware of). Crawdad: Like I said at the end, I did this for me and not the general public. If you don't care for the data then don't bother since it was fine enough for me.
  3. If you read the article by Melewski, he said he changed his entire approach to try and slap the ball around instead of driving to the gaps because he was not getting early success. This caused him to be completely out of sync during his stay in AAA. Snyder is quoted throughout the article. Park factors was not the type of data I wanted.
  4. With all the talk of how Brandon Snyder was effected by Harbor Park in AAA (most recently in Steve Melewski's Blog), I decided to create a list of the years and players that hit 20+ home runs with Harbor Park as the home field. Harbor Park was built in 1993 and has been home to the tides ever since. The dimensions are as follows: Left Field - 333 Feet Center Field - 410 Feet Right Field - 318 Feet (Formerly 338 Feet before 2009 season) The change in Right Field was a for a 400 person standing room deck that was added. The right field fence was moved in 20 feet to accomodate this change. It was believed this would help bring the home run back to the park. For more information on the change click here. The following is a list of players with 20+ home runs for the Tides since 1993: 2004: - Craig Brazell (23) - Victor Diaz (24) 2002: - Rob Stratton (20) - Andy Tracy (20) 1997: - Scott Mclaine (21) - Robert Petagine (31) 1995: - Butch Huskey (28) No Orioles Minor Leaguer has yet to reach the 20 home run plateau. I know the data is skewed because of players getting called up to the majors when they are doing well. Because of this, I took a look at the players who would have hit 20 home runs if they had played a full season. A minimum 150 PA was used. 142 G played is the pace. 2009: Nolan Reimold was on pace for 41 HR in his 130 PA but did not qualify - Oscar Salazar: 2009 - 10, Pace - 28 2008: No Players on 20 HR pace 2007: - Jon Knott: 2007 - 13, Pace - 21 Mets Farm System 2006: - Robert Bozied: 2006 - 8, Pace - 26 2005: - Brian Daubach: 2005 - 16, Pace - 22 - Victor Diaz: 2005 - 10, Pace - 33 - Mike DiFelice: 2005 - 14, Pace - 24 - Luis Garcia: 2005 - 9, Pace - 31 - Chase Lamibin: 2005 - 10, Pace - 23 2004: No Players on 20 HR Pace 2003: - Marco Scutaro: 2003 - 9, Pace - 20 - Matt Watson: 2003 - 11, Pace - 21 2002: - Mark Johnson: 2002 - 14, Pace - 25 - Jason Phillips: 2002 - 13, Pace - 20 2001: - Mark Johnson: 2001 - 8, Pace - 27 - Ray Montgomery: 2001 - 7, Pace - 26 2000: - Mark Johnson: 2000 - 17, Pace - 25 - Vance Wilson: 2000 - 16, Pace - 20 1999: - Craig Paquette: 1999 - 15, Pace - 30 - Andy Tomberlin: 1999 - 16, Pace - 21 1996 - 1998: No Players on 20 HR Pace 1995: - Derek Lee: 1995 - 18, Pace - 23 1994: - Rico Brogna: 1994 - 12, Pace - 25 - Jeromy Burnitz: 1994 - 14, Pace - 23 1993: - Ryan Thompson: 1993 - 12, Pace - 28 Item of note: Pace does not equal expected power production. With hot and cold streaks, match-ups, and various other factors, it would be impossible to gauge their real production. This is simply the product of this formula: [(Home Runs Hit / Games Played) X (142 - Games Played)] + Home Runs Hit = Home Run Pace In 17 Years of operation, 5 years did not have players on pace to hit 20 HR and only 4 years yielded players who did hit 20+ home runs. With this data, please keep this in mind: the production on the field is a reflection of the amount of talent that team has. Norfolk this past year was devoid of any offense once Montanez, Wieters, Reimold, and Salazar were removed from the team. All of these players were favorites to chase the 20 HR mark this year, but they got time on a big league club to reward them for their efforts. When the Mets system was playing in the park for 14 years, it only had 3 years (all in a row) where there was no 20 HR talent. Otherwise, there was generally 2 guys capable of putting up those kind of numbers on each team. Everyone is aware that this is a big pitcher's park because of the wind coming off the water. Is it any surprise that the Orioles aren't afraid to to bring up prospects from AA? Why send them to Norfolk where they lose confidence (like Snyder) and derail their path? Feel free to leave comments on the stadium and the information provided. I did the study based on my own curiosity and thought I would share it. All data presented is from Baseball Reference.
  5. I read all your posts, and I am not sure exactly what you're even debating anymore. First you say you dont' want to debate Hobgood, then you debate Hobgood. Then you start talking about money spent and how baseball doesn't necessarily follow slotting when it comes to hard to sign guys. Honestly, I don't think any of your arguments make any sense. I'll do what I can here to try fix things: - Hobgood was not the top guy on the board. Strasburg was and then Ackley. Hobgood was on top of the board when it was his turn to be picked, and yes, I fully believe they chose him because of talent and character. As people have pointed out, he's already got 2 plus pitches as an 18 year old. - Porcello got his asking price. I went to school with Rick's bro, and he told us that was around what they wanted regardless of draft position. - Coffey and Ohlman were high school kids who you had to pay for their schooling, and pay them enough to convince them that they can put off going to school full time. They only fell that far because they were deemed long shot signings. - Allstar knows what he is talking about. Completely. - As far as PIT goes, they got a signability pick, but Sanchez will move quick through the system because of his defense. They've been trying to get Doumit out from behind home plate now for 2 years. - Washington will draft Harper. Washington handled Strasburg and Boras admirably, and it was all the media who kept throwing up red flags about negotiations. He's not 5 years away, at least that's what they hope. He's got an advanced body and skills for a catcher. He'll hit his way through the minors and could be ready in 2-3 years even if his defense is still developing.
  6. Argue on. You have boringly spent the past 10 minutes putting up a wall of text that tells me stuff I already know. Matt Angle is a contact hitter who takes walks and steals bases. His OPS will be low since his slugging percentage will not have the home runs to beef it up. If you want an .800 OPS from him, it will never happen. He does play plus defense, he does bat lead-off, he does get on base at a high clip, and he has yet to fail at any stop so far on his path to the bigs. Is he a starting centerfielder? If he maintains his OBP in the high levels, he could get a look. Is he a reserve outfielder? He has the ability to play center which, generally, means you have the ability to play the other outfield positions. He could probably do that right now, but I couldn't tell you if he can hit yet. Once he shows he can hit AA pitching, it's only a matter of time before he reaches the majors in some sort of role. Before you look at power iso again and decide a prospects fate, maybe you should look at the type of player they are. After that, go ahead and read some scouting reports which some can be found right on this site (how convenient). This argument is going just like another one I had on here before where a guy was trying to tell me how bad LJ Hoes was because of his OPS at Delmarva. Quoting the same stat to me over and over is not going to convince me of anything.
  7. I'm going to answer this as bluntly as possible. Talent is talent. If you are 40 years old and out pitching guys, then you will get the spot in the bullpen or rotation over the young guys. This is why John Smoltz still has a job. If you want to dwell on ages, go right ahead. You're just like all the other ignorant fans out there who think too highly of their opinions. Reimold was 25 when he debuted, something that is not out of the question for Angle. Is this bad? Is he a failure? Was he not considered one of our top prospects even though he was "old" for AA? Talent is talent. In Pie's case, he's a 24 year old who has struggled to hold onto his job and avoid the AAAA label. I'm hoping he continues to do well and gives us further depth in the outfield or even causes the FO to rethink our outfield alignment. These are good things, but they are unlikely. If Montanez had not gotten injured, Pie would be looking for a job right now. Pie's 19 year old year in Adv-A is meaningless when he's now clinging to the 25th spot on the roster begging for playing time some 5 years later.
  8. BOOM!! THANK YOU!! You have just proven my point about the types of fans that are now sifting through the minor league stats today. If they aren't superstars, then they aren't prospects. Thank you for ousting yourself. I'll simply refrain from reading anything else you post since you are a lost cause.
  9. Age is not a factor. He's in his 2nd full year in professional ball with plus defense, a good walk rate, high on base percentage, and plus speed. A lead-off hitting centerfielder who will score runs for you is definitely big league caliber. Felix Pie is in his 8th professional year. In his 2nd full professional year he was at the same level hitting for more power but with less discipline and a lower on-base percentage. If you were to compare, that is how you would have to look at it. Get off the stereotype bus of people who obsess with age. If he's 25 and producing or 22 and producing, he's still producing. If he continues to produce when you promote, you keep promoting him.
  10. Good Info! The way I see it is with the young guns hitting the majors this year, fans are paying attention again to the minors to see what other gems pop up. This is a good thing except they don't know what they should be expecting. They want to see fantastic numbers and fast promotions because every draftee is a slam dunk in their eyes which leads to quick judgements. I laughed uncontrollably when there were people seriously talking about Hobgood being a bust after his first 2 outings. Patience people, patience.
  11. I am not sugar coating anything. I simply put the numbers out there and threw in my 2 cents here and there. A lot of people on these boards were so quick to say how much these guys suck, were busts, or were disappointments. Three Run Homer did exactly that "Dalles has been awful. Townsend has been awful." I'll give you a good reason for both why you shouldn't care if their stats aren't there yet. Dalles - He started 51 games (played in 54) for South Carolina, then came to Aberdeen where he has started another 32 games at catcher (plus 11 at DH). It's probably that he's wearing down and the transition to wood bats hasn't helped either. He had a low amount of doubles (7) compared to his home runs (15) in college. I'd expect him to become a singles and doubles hitter in pro ball with the occasional dinger. Townsend - As stated before, wrist injuries can rob players of entire seasons because they can't generate the same kind of bat speed. Again, I'm happy with what I see, but I didn't say I was overly excited nor was I hyping the group. This was mainly just reporting, and I am waiting until next year to start judging their performances. Here is a great post on the draftees this year: http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=87436
  12. See, this is a formatting error. I was referring to you David Anderson being a non-drafted free agent. I was not talking about Brenden. Sorry for the confusion. I made an adjustment to prevent this.
  13. If you go back and check how we drafted in the years prior to Rowell, you won't find many 1st rounders that panned out for us. He's not the first bust, and he won't be the last. Honestly, I could careless about his bat; he still makes an incredible amount of errors wherever he is playing, so I wouldn't want him out in the field. If he's been reduced to a 22 year old DH next year, then just DH him and work solely on hitting. If he can't figure it out next year just doing that, then he's a lost cause. They already have moved him to the outfield where there are a ton of people ahead of him on the prospect list not to mention our own outfield. The reason he was moved to the outfield was to take the stress of being a corner infielder off of him, so he could focus on his hitting. If that's where his gold his, then let's just let him do that.
  14. TheBandit

    Adams sent home

    The event you are talking about is not described correctly. The fan didn't die, but he suffered a concussion. I do agree that condemning someone without all the details is a step beyond where we should be. Be disappointed in his actions with hope he takes it as motivation.
  15. Thanks, I appreciate it. Tyler Townsend probably has the most potential for an impact player from the college players. I'm not up to speed on the high school guys to take a stab there at what we might be able to expect. Townsend has a pretty impressive resume from college. Mike Flacco, despite the last name hype, could really take off with a solid year next year. From his numbers and the things I have read, he really seems to have a nice combination of speed and power. The Orioles still aren't sure what side of the infield he will man, but it leaves his options open. The one guy I think we will only get organizational return out of is Michael Mooney. He seems to have a real nice glove, but that seems to be all he has. Without speed, he's more of a David Eckstein with the high contact no power approach at the plate, and I can't see him getting playing time over Tyler Kelly, Garabez Rosa, LJ Hoes, etc.
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