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malkusm

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45 Short Season A-Ball

About malkusm

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    Plus Member since 2-15
  • Birthday 8/21/1987

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    NYC
  1. They are projecting us to go 28-30 the rest of the way. That seems fairly pessimistic to me. Our schedule is fairly tough, yes, but we just played probably our worst baseball of the year in July and still went 12-14. I think we can go 30-28, which is what we'd need to bump us up to the 89-73 projection of the Jays and Sox.
  2. I'm sure that will go over well. "Yeah, we're only up a game on the Jays/Sox, but we're throwing Ubaldo out there today because Bundy has an innings limit, even though we said in July he doesn't have an innings limit."
  3. If it makes you feel better, FiveThirtyEight has it this way: Orioles 34% Red Sox 32% Blue Jays 31% Yankees 3% http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/
  4. Just playing around with an idea here: For the most part we have batted ball velocity, batted ball angle, and outcome for most balls in play. Thinking about what makes a batted ball more likely to become a hit, it seems as though the following would be true: - All things equal, higher exit velocity should lead to higher BABIP. - All things equal, exit angles closer to zero should lead to higher BABIP. If we accept these (maybe with some adjustment to the second statement, so that an exit angle of +10 degrees is optimal rather than 0 degrees, for example), you could create a pretty simple metric which should correlate to BABIP quite well: Velocity - ABS(angle) In this case, a 100 MPH screaming liner would be assigned a value of 100. A 100 MPH chopper hit off of Zach Britton (angle velocity ~-45) would be assigned a value of only 55. A 100 MPH pop-up (angle velocity ~+75) would be assigned a value of only 25. These values seem like they should correlate with how likely each is to be a hit (higher value, greater probability of a hit). Just spitballing, and you could apply a lot more rigor to something like this, but I think any next-level pitching analysis needs to assign an expected BABIP on each ball put in play in this way, to see how much that varies from true BABIP due to luck and defense.
  5. BBRef has an inning/score matrix: Inning/Score Appearance MatrixInn <-4 -4 -3 -2 -1 tie 1 2 3 4 >4 Total4- 1 2 1 45 2 1 1 46 1 1 1 1 47 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 128 1 1 1 2 6 4 2 2 3 229 3 1 1 1 1 710+ 1 4 5Total 6 7 3 4 11 12 2 3 1 4 5 58 Yes, Matusz had very few holds last year because he was very rarely given the opportunity to pitch with a lead of less than 4 runs. In fact, he was rarely given the chance to pitch with a lead at all last season. His highest leverage situations were in the 8th inning last year, when he was brought into a tie game or when the team was down a run. He made 10 such appearances in 2015. Here are his IPs in each of those 10 appearances: 4/17/15: 1.1 (walked 3 batters, was tagged with a run and a loss. Was allowed to stay in and finish the game after he allowed it to get out of hand) 4/24/15: 0.0 (walked the only batter he faced. That runner scored, was given another loss) 5/7/15: 1.0 (an effective, clean inning against NYY in a 1-run loss) 5/26/15: 0.0 (faced 2 batters, allowed a hit and a walk. Neither ended up scoring, but allowed 2 inherited runners to score) 7/2/15: 0.0 (faced 2 batters, allowed a hit and a walk. Neither ended up scoring) 7/21/15: 1.0 (an effective, clean inning against NYY in a 1-run loss) 7/27/15: 0.1 (struck out the only batter he faced) 8/21/15: 0.1 (struck out the only batter he faced, stranding the bases loaded) 8/22/15: 0.1 (struck out the only batter he faced) 9/11/15: 0.2 (1 strikeout, stranded a runner at 1st) Other than two appearances against the Yankees, Matusz did not work a full clean inning in a high-leverage situation last year. He had these two appearances and four pretty terrible ones. By late July, Buck was using him strictly as a LOOGY against 1-2 batters at a time. So, Buck hasn't trusted him with a lead for well over a year. He can't eat innings effectively. And this year, he appears incapable even of LOOGY work. This is not worth $3.9MM.
  6. Here's the MLB.com highlights (I know the Davis highlights were posted here, but thought people might like this as well): http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/8879974/v21230595/5612-jones-homer-in-the-17th-leads-os-to-victory/ Interesting that the grand slam was the first HR by Middlebrooks. IIRC, he was initially just a temporary call-up to replace Youkilis. Explains part of the Middlebrooks phenomenon in Boston. They ran Youkilis out of town shortly thereafter.
  7. I've lived in NYC almost 6 years now, and let me tell you, the idea of Yankee fandom doesn't exactly grow on you. Unless you mean in the same way that a cancer grows on you. Then, maybe.
  8. Don't forget the DP he started in the 1st inning, on a soft (broken bat?) liner that fell just in front of him. Bobbled the transfer but didn't panic, knowing the runner (Abreu I think), and fired a strike to Schoop.
  9. Kim is worth playing for the sheer entertainment value he provides on the basepaths alone. Someone should GIF the ~2 seconds where he was running towards the plate like his life depended on it.
  10. Super impressed with Kim in the last 2 weeks. Line drives to all fields. Get him 7-10 ABs/week and see what he can do. (In my opinion)
  11. NOLAN REIMOLD!!! :2yay-thumb: :2yay-thumb: :2yay-thumb:
  12. Ugh. Bad time for Brach to hang one. I still like our chances. We've made fewer mental mistakes on the night.
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