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Everything posted by CheeryO

  1. And the Orioles won't be sold until the dispute is resolved.
  2. What if they were called the Baltimore Orioles?
  3. Austin could support a team, but I think the Austin metro area is still smaller than Baltimore. The point is if the Orioles left Baltimore where would they move that would be bigger and better than Baltimore? Wikipedia has Baltimore as the 20th largest metro area in the country. The only area in the top 20 that does not have an MLB team is Riverside, California -- unless you look outside the US like to Montreal. Riverside has no major sports teams probably because it's newly huge, does not have a big center to it, and it's often considered part of the LA metro area. DC by the way is the 6th largest metro area in country. Baltimore and DC together is the 4th largest metro area in the country -- which can easily support two MLB teams. New York and LA are easily big enough to support three teams -- as New York once did pre-Mets when the Dodgers and Giants once called NYC home.
  4. http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-schmuck-orioles-relocation-20180622-story.html# This was in the Sun back in June
  5. Yeah, they have just as much a tradition as Baltimore, but they have smaller markets and a poorer fan base.
  6. The Orioles are a healthy team financially. The alternative markets are too risky. As hard as Angelos fought the Nationals moving to DC, the Giants are fought the A's moving to San Jose. The A's pretty much gave up, and that would have been a move of only about 40 miles. Montreal is a huge risk to move to. Mexico and Puerto Rico will not happen anytime soon -- way too risky. Other teams in California will fight to prevent teams moving to Sacramento or Riverside -- the same may be true for a third team in Texas. The Mariners will fight to prevent a team moving to Portland or Vancouver. And like others have said, if a team were to be moved, other candidates make sense before the O's. Even if the O's did move other teams would love to move into Camden Yards, or a new team expand into there.
  7. I agree. I think you could add the Brewers and maybe the Reds to that list. Baltimore is too solid of a market to tempt a move of the Orioles now that there is a team in DC too. Of all the teams to maybe move to Montreal, Vancouver, Austin, Portland, Sacramento, etc.,the Orioles are not in the top 5 on that list. And there's a strong chance expansion would come first anyway.
  8. Oh no, not this argument again. You're judging what someone was worth according to WAR -- as estimated by Fangraphs. Nobody pays a salary based on WAR value and they never will. But, for the sake of argument, just by taking a cursory glance at what the players actually make, if someone pays $10 million for their first WAR, it doesn't mean they pay $10 million per WAR for each 1 WAR thereafter. If you use WAR as a basis for figuring out salary, then you'll discover quickly, like in many businesses and areas of economic study, that the rate changes as the units increase (or decrease, whatever the case may be). It's similar to the theory of Economies of Scale, but in this case we're talking about salary per unit of productivity rather than cost per unit of productivity. WAR was created to determine value on the field; it has nothing to do with what the players actually make. Fangraphs should stay away from this stuff because their understanding of numbers has nothing to do with the business of sports.
  9. When I say overrated I mean relative to kind of money that's being talked about to sign him. I used to think anyone who flirts with $30 million a year for 10 plus years for Manny would regret it. I still kind of do. Manny is special, but it's unlikely he's Mike Trout or A-Rod special. I still kind of suspect he's probably more on the level of Adrian Beltre or Joe Mauer special.
  10. Look up his stats. This is Machado's best season with the bat -- by a decent margin. First season he's ever had an OPS above .900; first season his average is above .300; and first season his OBP is flirting with .400. It's pretty easily his best season offensively. Defensively it's another story. I always thought Machado was rather overrated -- until this season.
  11. For what it's worth the O's are playing better now than they have all year.
  12. Wrong. Machado never had a season like he's having now, and there was no reason to think the O's couldn't compete in 2015/2016. O's got unlucky with injuries, especially in 2015.
  13. Because the Braves have the reputation of being among the most shrewd and conservative teams when it comes to dealing and signing players. Of all franchises they are the most willing to be terrible for several years while stocking the minors with talent -- and then continue to hold onto prospects even when they're within striking distance of winning the division. They're a bit too conservative in my opinion. But then again they have had one of the worst TV deals in baseball, so they are not as wealthy a team as they should be. Also with their renewed success they could be holding their top prospects for a deGrom or someone like that.
  14. I kind of agree. How could the Orioles get a top prospect for Kevin Gausman unless they held onto him longer hoping he'll rebuild his value? Gausman has been way too inconsistent to bring back anything anyone would call a top prospect -- especially from the Braves. I'm more on the fence about Schoop. I can see both sides.
  15. True, but DD did not have to trade Gausman and Schoop. He could have waited until the offseason or even into next season. But I like the energy with which he is working, and it could be that some of the prospects received for the two of them are far more interesting than people are giving credit for.
  16. He'll make sure those Siberians have great abs.
  17. Adam Loewen's pitching career was derailed by injury. It happens.
  18. Neither Bundy nor Schoop get traded before the deadline unless the O's get an offer they can't refuse imo. Gausman -- maybe -- if someone like the Rockies overpays for him. Jones -- I'm guessing probably gets traded but not definitely. His market might be too limited. Would like to see the O's keep and re-sign Brach since he's having a down season and could come back strong next year.
  19. Every suburb to every city in the world owes its existence to the core of the city. No one in Howard County or Hartford County subsidizes Baltimore any more than the city of Baltimore subsidizes the suburbs by providing an economy and jobs for those suburbs to exist.
  20. On the bright side, at least Major League Baseball and American sports in general is not like European soccer, where the best players are just bought and sold and there is no real draft. MLB's and American sports' rich man's socialism of revenue sharing gives smaller market teams hope -- while in Europe who can compete with Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United and a handful of other very wealthy teams who buy and sell whoever they want? There is TV revenue sharing in the Premiere League but no salary cap, luxury tax and no draft. At least the MLB, while probably needing improvement (international draft maybe?), has some of all of these things.
  21. Yeah, nice post. I can't see the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox pursuing Manny as a SS, and not just because none of those teams need a SS (well, maybe the Dodgers will -- we'll see how Seager comes back). Manny belongs at third -- his glove plays better there and his bat is more than fine there. I agree with everything you say, except that I think 2018 is a bit of a surprise for Manny. Offensively, his numbers took a pretty big step back last year. The question is: is Manny taking off? Or is he one of those players with up and down seasons -- more like Adrian Beltre than A-Rod? Who wouldn't want to have an Adrian Beltre on their team? Everyone would. But Beltre is not paid like he's a generational talent -- even though he is a generational talent defensively. That's why I say it's a risk to sign Manny to a 10 years deal worth upwards of $275 million. Also, a big reason Manny has a WAR of 30 by age 25 is because he's been a major league starter since he was 19. He's probably got more mileage on him than most players his age. And then that cumulative WAR (for what it's worth) -- now at 30 -- will slow down if his defense continues to drag so much. Maybe all that muscle is slowing him down at shortstop.
  22. Yeah, he's definitely a generational player for the O's. But it remains to be seen if he's generational across the league. No one would question Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts and especially Mike Trout getting record breaking contracts. Manny? It's a risk, especially as a shortstop. The Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox would all want Manny at third. Most of the big spending teams don't need a shortstop -- especially a defensibly questionable one.
  23. Manny is one of the top players in the game, but he hasn't really come close to showing he's a generational talent -- yet. Anyone who signs Manny to a mega contract is taking a gamble. Is the Manny of 2018 the Manny of the future? Or is it the sub .900 OPS Manny of the past? Would love to have Manny back but at a $250 million + contract it has to be some other team to take that risk.
  24. Yes, but injuries happen. The question that will haunt the the Oriole teams of the mid 2010s was whether management needed to do much more to improve the team for 2015; or would it not have mattered if they had brought back Cruz and Miller (or their rough equivalents) anyway because of the unexpected under-performance of the starting pitching.
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