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Everything posted by BohKnowsBmore

  1. I would imagine a lot of those are disproportionately in the NL as well, due to rule set and increased level of PH/substitution, which isn’t quite as relevant when talking about an AL team like the Os. Many of those are probably injury driven as well, which is fine as that’s part of what you have the 4th OF for, but it’s a slightly different thing than saying “this is what we expect / hope for in team construction.” Edit- on second look, I think your other point explains more of it, as guys like Mancini, Kros Bryant, Franmil Reyes, Niko Goodrich, etc. are included in those numbers, thus pushing the true median for what we actually think of as a “fourth outfielder” downward.
  2. Important to note, though, that they were running those payrolls right before the team recently bottomed-out, then they started slashing. In an environment with payrolls increasing over time, the fact that they were nowhere near that level in-say-2003 isn't particularly instructive.
  3. Do they even print physical playoff tickets going forward...?
  4. Are you sure about that? Looking at 2019, the only team in the AL east that had a "fourth OF" with 300+ PA as identified by bbref was the Orioles and that was Stevie Wilkerson. Making my way through the other divisions now, but it doesn't appear that the "typical" 4th OF gets 300+ PA.
  5. If you’re counting all of his professional PAs, then he’s been very good in the majority of them (talking about minors, of course).
  6. Sure, I guess, but most of the examples you cited are simply giving opportunities to guys who were already in the system / on the team, so I'm not sure it's indicative of any philosophical shift toward offense (at the expense of defense).
  7. On the flip side, the team added Yolmer Sanchez to the roster and jettisoned Nunez.
  8. https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-trade-jonathan-villar-to-marlins And then he was traded at the 2020 deadline
  9. Similar to what other posters have said, I think 2022 is the “make some noise,” .500 or slightly better team. Then, 2023 is the start of the serious competitive window.
  10. Stallings probably has at least 500k in expected excess value by the teams models. Theoretically you could flip Villar at the deadline as well for something of marginal utility if he’s playing well.
  11. Why wouldn't he? I'm sure most sports journalists who cover specific teams pay some level of attention to the higher-quality fan sites. Basically gives you an army of enthusiastic unpaid interns sourcing column ideas for you.
  12. This is a very important point. I've seen/heard people make the point for college football that "recruiting rankings don't matter," because there's almost as many former three-star prospects in the first round of the NFL draft as there are five-stars. This of course misses the fact that there are only ~30 five-stars in any given year, compared to thousands of three-stars. The funnel from five-star to first round is much more likely than lower ratings for any individual recruit. Similarly here, that the buckets are fairly evenly sized neglects to consider how many potential players came in at the top of the proverbial funnel.
  13. I think labeling it the "sock it away" theory misses the mark a bit, or doesn't accurately describe what I (and others) believe may be going on. It's not that these dollars are specifically being put away in a vault to be withdrawn at a later date, Rather, I think it's better described as follows. Note that I am using made up numbers and deliberately oversimplifying team economics (also ignoring growth/inflation, etc.) in order to have a more straightforward discussion. Let's assume revenue net of all non-ML player expenses is $120M (let's also assume this is fixed) In order to make an acceptable economic profit from the team, ownership needs to make $30M annually in profit after all expenses If the team runs a payroll of $50M in 2021, then profit to ownership is $70M, $40M more than required in a given year In exchange for these savings in rebuilding years, ownership may be willing to go all the way up to the $120M "budget" mentioned in point one, or even significantly exceed it going into a loss during competitive years Dollars spent in competitive years create more utility on both the baseball side and business side of the organization than during the rebuilding years On the baseball side, those dollars spent accumulating WAR have a much stronger marginal impact on playoff/WS odds (i.e., going from 90 to 95 wins is far more valuable than 65 to 70) On the business side, those dollar spent improving the product can be considered a brand-building investment, whereas adding a couple relatively expensive veterans to a bad team don't do much to move the needle in attracting fans over seeing the young guys develop Ultimately, I think it's more appropriate to think of it as trading unproductive dollars today for more productive dollars tomorrow, rather than "socked away."
  14. Did anyone ever discuss Mark Teixeira’s free agency around these parts?
  15. When you consider service time / contract they’re even less (far less) comparable as trade pieces
  16. Yea. That’s a legit argument. Was just weird imo to cite stats that Means is actually better in and say the effect of “well I guess Means is the closest thing we have.”
  17. Ok. That’s 1/10 the total money for two guys who could also be better than him. They could be nothing, sure, but the KBO is roughly AA quality. Not exactly a sure thing.
  18. Also, Means’s K/9, BB/9 and WHIP were all better than Davies so it’s sort of odd or backwards to list out those numbers for Davies and sort of hand wavingly say “I guess the closest thing we have is Means”
  19. Minor nitpick, but it would be entering year three of “wins don’t matter.” The team most certainly wasn’t trying to tank in 2018, which is what made ending up with the number one pick even more frustrating. Elias’s first season of games was 2019.
  20. Yea, I think they value him as a super utility piece. I don’t think it makes sense for the Os to send the prospects it would take for the Pads to let go of him.
  21. I can envision a scenario in which ownership commits to spending into the red in contending years if Elias is willing to keep payroll as lean as reasonably possible in the rebuilding years that precede that window.
  22. I think the certainty of a lease with reasonable to favorable terms (removing cost uncertainty) could actually enhance value.
  23. I’ve never thought his bat looks slow. It looks like he whips it through the zone imo. Perhaps this could create holes in his swing, but I don’t think it’s ever appeared to me that he was particularly slow with the bat.
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