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About awannabegeek

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  • Birthday 7/24/1984

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  1. Are wrong based on what? Again, a data scientist is a bit more equipped on controlling for biases than your average Joe.
  2. I don't understand this as a rebuttal to defensive metrics? All you care about is if a guy catches a ball? What about the balls that drop in that another more capable outfielder would have caught due to better instincts and\or athleticism?
  3. That's fair healthy skepticism. I can't argue with that. I think they're the best we (fans) have at the moment, they're not perfect but better than our eyes (for the most part). Most teams to my knowledge use their own proprietary metrics which are probably (definitely?) more accurate than UZR.
  4. My post is not to say quantitative analysis is flawless, is that the counter argument to quantitative analysis' accuracy is not "well my eyes see something different so the stats are wrong", that is the point. Humans of all sorts are prone to cognitive biases but the data scientists which help build these stats know how to control for it and the error rate due to their cognitive bias is I'm going to bet a lot smaller than the average baseball fan.
  5. It is even more foolishly stubborn to believe because statistic doesn't match your eye test it must be inaccurate....That seems to be the argument of most anti-stat guys.
  6. It's not supposed to jibe with what you see. That is the entire point of statistical analysis. What we see is commonly shrouded in a number of different cognitive biases. Whether you think the numbers are valid or not is one thing but the problem with a lot people who question quantitative analysis is the belief that because it doesn't match your eyes it is invalid, it's the point.
  7. Bag of Balls, Nada, and Nothing are pretty synonymous with worthless. Or am I missing something? Enlighten me.
  8. Can someone who is upset about trading Andrew Cashner provide what you were expected to get in return? I'm not really a fan of just appealing to authority but...just because you Mr. random poster on Orioles Hangouts hasn't heard of a prospect doesn't mean they are worthless...they're lotto tickets that I'm pretty sure the Orioles just didn't randomly pick.
  9. You draft the best player available and\or underslot college seniors (rounds 7-10) there's nothing more to it.
  10. He's an Oriole because he is toolsy and they're the type of team that can afford to give him at-bats and see if he can put it together. He is not a Brewer or Met anymore because he doesn't make consistent contact, I wouldn't bet on that changing but he is so toolsy you give it shot.
  11. Rickard is a below average defender by most metrics, not a great hit tool, middling power with maybe above average speed. Broxton is a dynamic defender, with legitimate power, plus-speed, a plus athlete with horrible contact skills. Broxton is the type of player a rebuilding team can give at-bats to and see what happens. Rickard is the type of player for some reason Baltimore fans seem to adore despite the fact there's nothing there that screams major league starter even if he put everything together.
  12. Look at my post history, I'm not a negative guy. I give the benefit of the doubt. I don't think Angelos is cheap, I do think he's a bad owner but I don't hate him as some do. i can acknowledge the Orioles pitching development is not the best but can recognize Wade Miley's luck driven ERA is not worth getting upset about. I generally just don't post negative stuff, sports are a fun escape, if it's not fun I don't watch. I definitely don't get upset...with all that said. I have no hope for this team. They had a key opportunity to jump-start a rebuild of their farm system and they've totally botched it. No Mesa(s), No Gaston which in turn makes the Gausman trade look horrible. You could squint, look at the international slot money and convince yourself if they signed the Mesa(s), Gaston, and maybe Bonilla it would be worth it. They didn't\haven't but the cherry on top is sending 750k to the Phillies for Zoellner. Why? Gausman's context neutral\peripherals, age, and control should have fetched someone(s) of significance from a stacked farm system. The Machado trade was fine considering he was a pending free agent. Though how they let it get to that point is beyond me. The Schoop trade looks fine but I don't think Ortiz is a future SP Britton trade is okay. How do the Orioles compete moving forward? The Blue Jays farm system is stacked. The Rays have a limited payroll but have an extremely cheap and talented roster. The Yankees and Red Sox not only can outspend everyone but they have over the last 5-7 years placed a greater emphasis on analytics and player development. The Orioles...have a middling farm system even after the fire sale. While I do think it may be better than it is given credit for. It's not even close to the Blue Jays, Rays, or Yankees. Player development is questionable at best. Their analytics department seems antiquated from the outside looking in. Regardless of who the owner is, I'm a bit concerned about payroll moving forward. Quite frankly attendance was pretty garbage when they were contending, now it just looks sad. Closing in on the end of the WS and no GM or manager -- aside from that why did they even let Duquette trade anyone that wasn't a pending free agent if their intentions were to fire him. I've watched them botch the handling of a generational\HOF talent, put a historically bad team on the field, they are not smarter, better at developing talent, nor can they outspend their competition.... I have no hope for this team...I think this team will be bad for a very long time...I do hope I'm wrong. Oh...and Chris Davis...enough said.
  13. Roy I know you're kind of old school...but they had all those players and were still the worst team in baseball...
  14. I'm kind of being a jerk here if a mod can delete this it would be great. ^^^
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