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Luke-OH last won the day on December 4

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About Luke-OH

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  • Favorite Current Oriole
    Dylan Bundy
  • Favorite All Time Oriole
    Brady Anderson

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  1. Of guys throwing 100+ innings, yes.
  2. I'll get to the other questions when I get a chance. I appreciate good questions, I have done so much research that it's good to get some of that info out.
  3. Good question, the main reason to pick Alemais rather than Hechevarria is you have nothing to lose and Alemais will cost 655K (100K Rule 5 fee + league min) and is controllable for 6 years if he works out while Hechevarria might get similar to the 3M he got last year and if he's good, he's either more expensive or gone. That said Alemais isn't at the top of my list or particularly close, I just think he's worth thinking about and I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere else. For the Holt question, it could either be guys that fit the same profile that I mentioned earlier. So vertical spin angle, hop on the fastball, high 3/4 arm slot, above average spin. Or it could be guys that have some fixable pitch arsenal things, like a guy whose curveball and slider are too similar, or whose curveball doesn't mirror fastball spin, or who unintentionally cuts his fastball. Guys that fit the profile include Joe Barlow, Trevor Megill, Brandon Bailey, Hever Bueno, Jordan Sheffield, Bryan Baker, Wladimir Pinto, Scott Engler, Kevin McCanna in a rough order of preference. Some of these guys aren't legit options, I'm just pulling all the guys I have notes on fitting that profile. Guys that have some correctable flaws include (this is a limited list because I don't have time to extensively study video on every player) in no particular order Luke Bachar (more seperation of breaking balls), Daniel Alvarez (fastball spin angle), Cam Hill (spin efficiency of the fastball), Eric Marinez (release consistency), Andrew Lee (cuts his fastball), Kurt Hoekstra (cuts his fastball).
  4. Yeah, just not a quick twitch athlete, not very fast, stocky build.
  5. Also, my full Rule 5 thoughts will be clear in a couple days, I'm hard at work putting together my list of the Top 50 eligible players. Until then, I'm more than willing to answer any questions about certain players or suggest interesting names that fit certain profiles.
  6. I said this about Rojas on the other Rule 5 thread (minor league discussion) a while back. "He’s hit at every level, he’s also been 2 years older than most prospects at each level. I think he’ll hit some in the majors. I just don’t know if he plays passable defense at 3B or 2B. There are better bats out there IMO if you want a 1B/DH type. Huge power types like Ramos, Gittens, etc. or bat control/approach types like Nogowski or Filia." He's definitely a name that's out there and he may get picked. He's going to be close but probably not in my top 10. Those names you quoted aren't my necessarily my top choices to be clear, just obscure names that people wouldn't hear about much from anywhere else. I shared my initial top 10 earlier in this thread (which included Barlow and Gomez), although my thoughts have changed some with the 20-30 hours of game video I've watched since then.
  7. Bradish Peek (highest ceiling, but we don’t know how he’ll handle a pro workload) Brnovich Mattson Lucas Peek and Bradish, same tier for me, definite top 30, probably around high teens to mid 20s. Brnovich and Mattson, maybe 26-30 range, maybe off the 30. Lucas, somewhere in the group that just missed, similar to Hammer who I mentioned in the Beyond the 30.
  8. Compared to how most MLB teams are run, the Orioles overstretched financially in 2016, 17, and 18. So you could argue that this is just the other side of that pendulum. Another possibility, not dependent on the first, is that a couple years of really low payroll is the trade-off with ownership for the freedom to remake the player development system, start spending on technology, International free agents, etc.
  9. That post is a meme. Here’s the original, in response to the Cashner trade, it’s popular on Twitter. People say it sarcastically whenever the Orioles make a move.
  10. I don't really want to rehash the Villar thing, it's already been overdone IMO. I think the return he got is evidence enough that teams valued him pretty close to the 1.8 WAR projection.
  11. Those projections take all of that into consideration. I'm using fWAR because the projection I'm quoting does the same. Over the last 2 years by fWAR, Villar was worth 6 WAR and Pham was worth 7.4 WAR, over the last 3 years the difference is more stark, with Villar at 5.6 WAR and Pham at 13.6 WAR. Basically, you have Villar who is a career 97 wRC+ hitter and Pham who is a career 129 wRC+ hitter. Is it possible for baserunning and defense to make up that difference? Yes, in 2019 it did. But as I laid out in an earlier post, Villar's 2019 season was a perfect storm of career best power output, career best defensive numbers at SS, career best baserunning, career best PAs. If you just regress all those career bests, that gets you most of the way down to the 1.8 WAR projection. Pham on the other hand under performed his career profile in 2019, some of that may be aging, but the projection thinks that regression toward career numbers (or recent career numbers) is going to be a stronger force than age related decline in 2020.
  12. Well, let's look at Steamer projections. Villar is projected for 1.8 WAR in 2020, Pham is projected for 3.6 WAR. Using a flawed linear $/WAR calculation (best I have at the moment) and arbitration predictions. Villar has 4M in surplus value (he obviously didn't have quite that much, by the available return) Pham has 32M in surplus value using the exact same calculation. (assuming the 8.6M arb salary for 2020 and a raise to 13M in 2021, with a .5 WAR loss to aging) According to Fangraphs prospect valuation and grade, Edwards is worth 28M. Hunter Renfroe projects for .7 WAR in 2020, but is controllable through 2023. If he doesn't improve his defense or contact issues and keeps hitting HRs, he'll probably be a non-tender candidate in a year or two. As a former touted prospect there is probably a chance for some untapped upside. Jake Croneworth isn't a big name prospect, but he statistically is very interesting, he projects to 1.5 WAR for 2020 (which is really good for someone with no MLB track record). So if anything, I'd say the Padres got the better of this deal. It's a bet by the Padres that Edwards isn't a star because he doesn't have any power and the Renfroe is what he is. Both those things seem like good bets to me, plus they get a bat control SS, who even if he doesn't have everyday upside, can throw in the upper 90s with a hook out of the pen and if pretty much a perfect 26th man on the roster type, a true two-way talent.
  13. He thinks player development can create quality from certain raw attributes. So he grabs as many with those attributes as possible.
  14. I think the predictions earlier in the thread are as good as any I’ll make. Prado seems to be the best bet of the young guys as he has a mature game from what I’ve read. Luis Ortiz will be stateside for extended spring training, which is exciting, although he’ll most likely still pitch in the DSL.
  15. Luke-OH

    Fangraphs Top 100

    Some of those reports are about a year old, so until the offseason update, just be aware of that.
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