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Everything posted by Luke-OH

  1. Luke-OH

    Farewell OH

    I’m not going to talk in detail about the process for obvious reasons, but I’ll say that I was being honest on here when I said I wasn’t looking for a job.
  2. Luke-OH

    Farewell OH

    Also, I tweeted this, but I should put it here as well, but thanks to @Tony-OH for encouraging me to write and providing a platform. His advice and the freedom he gave me to write on my schedule about what interested me was greatly helpful. Also, @weams for help with the site and generally being a good dude. And like I said before, thanks to everyone I’ve interacted with here.
  3. Luke-OH

    Farewell OH

    I never thought I’d be writing this, but I’ve accepted a position as a Scouting Analyst Consultant with the Orioles. I’m keeping my day job and working with the team on a part-time basis, but I obviously won’t be able to publicly discuss players anymore. Thanks to everyone here for their encouragement and for everyone who disagreed with me or asked for an explanation, you all helped me improve as an analyst. I’m going to do my absolute best to try and help the Orioles get back on top in any way I can. ~Luke
  4. When he came back up, he upped his slider usage, which got strong results. It's possible that he changed the fastball to try and throw more strikes, but I doubt he intentionally cut it to do so. He does seem to have a lower effort delivery than back in 2016-2017, so perhaps by easing up on the intent, he also didn't pronate as forcefully, causing the cut. That could be fixed without increasing effort (assuming he can throw strikes high effort).
  5. It gained popularity as a way for pitchers who lost velocity to avoid hard contact against their fastball. Now it's just used as part of a well rounded arsenal. It's useful for pitchers with a high 3/4 or over the top arm slot who have trouble creating horizontal action on a slider because of the difficultly getting around the ball from that slot.
  6. Yeah, each player is different and improvement is far from guaranteed, but at the very least the fact players are flying/driving out to Seattle to try and get better is a good thing. It seemed to help Sedlock last offseason, from a health perspective and working to differentiate the slider from the curveball.
  7. You are raising perfectly reasonable points, but while MLB competition level is obviously tougher, there isn't a magic barrier between AAA success and MLB success, if it plays in one and not in another, there is a reason for it. My thread was attempting to determine at least part of the reason for it. I know it's a results based game, but I think it's really premature to write off someone with an elite pitch (the slider) and good MLB peripherals going into their age 25 season, regardless of anything else. That said, the slider usage and the potential to regain the fastball movement from 2016-2017 (with a relatively simple adjustment) gives reasons to be even more optimistic than that.
  8. His minor league strike-throwing numbers have steadily improved. His performance against AAA bats in 2019 points the finger more at fastball quality vs strikethrowing ability. Of course, better command would help him a lot, but that's something he has never had. A better fastball is something that he absolutely, provably had.
  9. I think that's probably why Nick Gonzales was at 2B, but I don't think Gonzales is a SS at the next level regardless, he's not an average glove at 2B yet (although there is the general feeling that his work-ethic will get him there).
  10. Somewhat off-topic, but related to offseason training... Bruce Zimmermann, Brian Gonzalez, Brandon Bailey, and Brett Cumberland have all spent some time training at Driveline this offseason. (Bailey a significant amount.)
  11. The first video? Because that is his 4S fastball.
  12. This strongly reinforces my point. In 2016-2017, when his fastball had more spin efficiency and horizontal/vertical movement. These were his splits. 2017: .563 OPS vs RHB .564 OPS vs LHB 2016: .608 OPS vs RHB .572 OPS vs LHB The fastball used to be a huge weapon against opposite handed batters.
  13. I'm saying that part of the BB rate is because of fear of throwing the fastball in the zone. Trying to nibble and not having the command to do so.
  14. Don't get me wrong, the command isn't good, that's part of the problem, but he threw 66+% strikes in 46 AAA innings, walked less than 3 per 9. He can throw enough strikes, now quality strikes, that's an issue, but I'm saying if he can get the old fastball back, which may be as simple as a cue or grip change, the pitch will play much better in the heart of the zone.
  15. Dang, my brain was saying September.
  16. I don't think that's the main thing holding him back. He's allowed 1.11 HR/9 and a .387 BABIP in his MLB career, that's because the fastball gets crushed, the fastball gets crushed because it has poor movement qualities.
  17. Cutting the fastball generally kills velocity, and he definetly has started cutting it (intentionally or not), which has killed the vertical and horizontal movement and at least some of the velocity. I'm not sure if he's still the avg 99mph guy he was back then, but an adjustment to the fastball to improve spin efficiency should get an increase from the 96.3mph avg velocity in 2019. Even if he can't fix the fastball, I think a 50%+ slider usage will make him a solid pen arm, but upside is tied to getting the movement qualities of the fastball back to what they used to be.
  18. Check out this 5 part thread and discuss here.
  19. Read through the whole 10 part tweet thread and discuss here.
  20. More left of center than true opp, but here you go :57 seconds in
  21. VVM actually had recent scouting reports that were positive and showed a technically competent swing with solid bat speed in batting practice video. Game video was lacking and it appears that there isn't much power in the profile. Fangraphs had given him a 45 and they've downgraded him to a 40. Plus CF defense is going to give him a low offensive bar to cross. Edit: watching some game video, it's obvious the swing has gone to crap, he's tentative, he doesn't stay connected, and his hands need to quiet down a bit. Even batting practice looks much worse. He has no problem putting bat on ball, so I'd say there is some hope if the swing can be fixed.
  22. He might be good, but the stats are in Japan's minor league, which I have no point of reference as to the how that translates. The scouting takes are one-line nothing takes from anonymous scouts. The articles have nothing significant as far as info about the player's abilities other than that he was being developed as a pitcher a couple years ago but hasn't thrown a competitive pitch as far as I can tell. The videos have like 2 swings from a less than ideal angle vs unknown velocity. He could be really good, but there is nothing I've seen to give myself any confidence in that conclusion.
  23. Yeah, Norge Carlos Vera. Colás isn't really a pitcher though it seems, at least not in game action at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if both wait for 2020 J2.
  24. Very likely IMO.
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