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About MountUrCastle

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  1. There's very few to no data sets in the world (especially in sports) that normalize over as short of a sample size as the 2020 baseball season, collegiate or otherwise. And no, data set is not exclusively statistics.
  2. Which means the sample size was not large enough to pick Kjerstad then, as he was picked for like 1/8th of a season.
  3. It's still more value than corner outfield/1B/DH.
  4. It's also curious to assume that MLB teams are infallible and don't make mistakes/aren't motivated by money saving and greed/aren't subject to fallacies/etc. I feel much better reading Mayo and Baumler as 1st round talents.
  5. If this is the qualification for a B-level draft than every draft in Orioles and MLB history can be graded as no lesser than a B-. Given that the data pool for this years draft was a tiny bit bigger than an NFL season I am inclined to say no.
  6. C- At pick #2 they picked anywhere from the 7th to the 12th best prospect available which was a power first low discipline corner outfielder with below average speed and average fielding, instead of a multi-positional bat-first athletic talent who was at both a stats view and eye-test view better than Martin in almost every way except power, to go over-slot later in the draft. When our next pick rolled around, assuming Bitsko was the pick at 30 and all backups were taken, we balked on the overslot for the 30th, drafting a questionable bat all tools no toolbox infielder. We proceeded to do the same thing for the next 2 picks with defense first and questionable hit players. The best part of the draft was the 4th and 5th round where Mayo and Baumler are two really good picks ( I am a big fan of drafting high schoolers and developing them), but unless they can make up the loss of value from the 2nd overall selection and the subsequent picks after I don't know if they are both worth it. After sleeping on it I feel as though I want to be cautiously optimistic about this draft. I trust analytics, and I trust Elias. But on face value it feels as though the Orioles passed on a 50% chance or so to draft and develop a top infielder in the league, to take a 20% chance to draft a future above average corner outfielder and some infield/outfield depth to swing on two 18 year olds who could be anything.
  7. What has come out of the last 10 #103 picks? You do notice that the top players from that 10 year sample are infield players and the worst tend to be pitchers? (also, is it just me or is Joey Bard a ghost on google.)
  8. And getting 4 top-5 calibre prospects when you could have had 5 for no other reason than to turn your 5th and 4th rounders into (essentially) late second to early third rounders is universally a reallllly bad tactic. I actually really like this pick! Everything about him suggests that he doesn't have the mental or reflexive flaws in his game like Kjerstad, for example, does. Don't get me wrong, but if he wasn't an overslot, where would he go in the draft? Would he go in round #1? Would he go early round #2? I guess my question is would you rather have Mayo/Baumler/Kjerstad or Martin and two slot/underslot prospects with similar strengths?
  9. Bitsko/Wilcox or Wilcox/HS OF or Bitsko/HS OF was the only way the savings would justify.
  10. Yeppers, sorry. Drafting Kjerstad isn't worth it now. Bitsko was the only player to justify him/
  11. To be fair, Kyle Schwarber isn't an everyday player because he's on the Cubs who have players who are that much better at his weakness to justify platooning/rotation.
  12. I fully agree with the second point, and I think you're mistaking my point haha. My point is that all of Kjerstad's weaknesses are all either super iffy to change in terms of approach or in the end ultimately not worth it to develop in comparison to other compartments of the game, while Martin's weaknesses are more desirable and generally easier to develop.
  13. Oral agreement between the club and he to draft him at say 7th next year instead of 3?
  14. Pete Crow-Armstrong goes. If Bitsko goes this draft is likely falling apart for the O's
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