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Everything posted by OrangeTurtle

  1. I have no dog in the fight, honestly. That was just the first player-to-player prospect comparison that popped up from a credible source.
  2. Jim Callis weighs in: https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2021/03/callis-compares-wieters-with-rutschman-and-more.html "For one, Matt Wieters has had a good career for a No. 1 overall prospect, and two, no knock on Wieters, but I think Adley Rutschman is a better defensive player and a better hitter than Matt Wieters.” Callis said. “I think the power and arm strength is similar. But as good as Matt Wieters has been, Adley Rutschman is better. “He’s got the best catching tools that I’ve seen in a prospect in 30 years of covering this stuff. He has better all-around tools th
  3. I think there are two paths to go down regarding Adley. Either you run him into the ground and let him walk (if you can't extend him and buy our Arb years in a team friendly extension), or you go the path of getting another College C 1st/2nd Rd pick that can move quickly and join him ASAP. In the 2nd framework, you're attempting to preserve Adley's knees and keep him fresh having him and the other C DH/1B when the other is playing and give him frequent rest with the attempt of getting 10+ years out of him. I say draft pick, because you want the C pairing to also be extremely cheap,
  4. Like SG just said, I don't care who the backup catcher is next year, as long as it's not Severino and they are glove first. I'm not trying to spend 3M on a backup C. Severino's defense and effort is appalling. He needs to go.
  5. Fair enough, but if I'm aiming for 35+ year old vets that should get $3-6 annually, I'm not sure what players you're expecting to get that are younger and better that won't make more than that. If I had it my way, I'd prob get a guy for the league minimum to start until May and then backup the rest of the year.
  6. Which is exactly why I propose not blowing 10 mill+ on a younger, more capable backup, when Adley should be getting most of the playing time after May next year. Either Rutschman is good or he isn't. If he isn't, then that throws a wrench into everything and our ability to compete for a WS in the next 5 years. If he's good, and we can't spend with a top 10 payroll, I'm sorry, I'm spreading my resource funds elsewhere. Those older guys get you through next year and aren't Severino, so that's pretty great just by default.
  7. Yes, this is the great unknown and I'd like to think more fans in the stands in 2022 means more money to spend in 2023, etc. Unfortunately, we just don't know how that works. I don't inherently have a problem with blowing money next year on 1 year deal relievers, but I do in the context of which, if we have 40 mill to spend and it takes 30+ to sign Correa, then I don't want 2-3 relievers next year eating up 15 mill, even if the 15 mill comes off the books after next year, if it means we could have got Correa, but didn't have the funds to do so NEXT YEAR. Agree though I don't know if
  8. If we had unlimited resources, I would do/aim better and higher. Only so many dollars to go around.
  9. Fair point, but I'm skeptical at how much bang for your buck you're getting out of those guys (but I like them as options). At some point, we need to see what guys like Kremer and Brnovich and Mattson and Burdi and Bautista and others have at the ML level (in the bullpen). That time is next year because you don't want to experiment when we're fighting for a WC spot, IMO. You can improve areas of the club for next year while also not locking down bullpen spots with lots of $$. Adding the relievers you mentioned aren't putting us over the top, but they are eating up finite resources th
  10. Lol, if Adley is your C for the future, why are you going after C that arent 35+? Why commit resources to better, younger players for them to ride the bench?
  11. I agree that solid relievers are valuable, but even with consistent types, you have years like Hand/Kenley/Chapman are having where they've imploded to different extents. Look at Familia as another example. I'm not in the business of getting those guys when we're still 2+ years away. Everyone wants their Hader or Andrew Miller, but I'd rather go for those guys when we have a shot at the WS.
  12. SSS but Vogt has been a positive defender the past 2 years. Not sure how it's inconsistent. Next year only matters to me in the sense that you're showing that we are taking stuff slightly more seriously going into 2023/2024 when we should truly start "going for the playoffs". Next year matters in how you want the kids to succeed and you want to surround them with professionals instead of the garbage currently taking up roster space. I'd be happy if the Os had a 8-12 range pick next year, for reference. Enough to show we have improved and our direction is moving upwards.
  13. Exactly. But if the guy isn't in our system currently, to get someone that isnt total garbage, the going rate is probably going to be around 3M. There are far better options at that price point than Severino.
  14. Name some relievers that you'd sign on a 1 year deal for next year and what you think they'd sign for, please. SG brought up an O'Day caliber guy, with a track record, which is fine. But guys of that quality go for $10MM+. Brad Hand, for example, averaged like 1.5 fWAR over the past 4 years or whatever and signed a 1 year deal this past offseason for $10.5. He currently has a -.2 fWAR this year. I just personally don't see what you're accomplishing by signing guys of that ilk or slightly worse at like $7MM on a 1 year deal when, at our VERY BEST, we might be a WC contender next year.
  15. If you want to try to appear like a respectable club next year, you could do a lot worse than signing a Vogt/Gomes as a starter until Adley comes up and to provide a vet defensive presence vs. trotting Severino out there night after night with super negative framing and defense. Next year doesn't matter.
  16. I think Suzuki might retire or has already said so, and I even said he only makes $1.5 this year in a follow-up post. Despite that, I don't WANT us to spend $5MM on a backup catcher next year, but I was playing along with the OP premise and Frobby's post. In which, I'd rather do that to help ease in Adley + provide solid D for some of our younger SP coming up next year as opposed to spending the same amount on relievers that add nothing meaningful next year and could be DFA'd by August. That's my opinion though.
  17. If Elias has stated he won't sign any FA for 4+ years (can you point to a quote?), then we're in huge trouble. I think you're misinterpreting such a statement.. They don't want to sign a premier FA and "miss", but if you sign one and they perform through years 1-3, you can then flip them on the back end of the contract when they get more expensive for more payroll flexibility. Constantly churning, like the Rays. Also, the Angels studs + duds approach is very different than what I'm suggesting. The Angels never had a huge core of homegrown talent to go along with Trout. At least until
  18. You mean like Brad Hand? Oh, wait.. I trust our regime and scouts to help mitigate situations where you're buying a "sure thing" and then they fall off the face of the earth, but why waste money at all when we arent WS contenders the next 2 years? You can improve the club with an aim to respectability in the coming years in more economical ways with respect to risk, IMO. We have a TON of guys in AA/AAA that have ceiling of #4/#5 starters. Clubs don't trade for those guys. You get the best value by converting them to relievers and hope they can be valuable members to your 26, wi
  19. Okay, but there's volatility with relievers. Why spend for those when you can use our AAA/AAAA guys or Rule 5 picks? I understand your premise is to try and be competitive next year, but I just don't see that happening with only 40MM to spend total, especially when you're devoting those finite resources on the bullpen over other, more important areas that need upgrades. If you have to give relievers 2 year deals and you're more likely to contend year 2, the risk is greater that they turn into pumpkins year 2 vs. Year 1, when, that second year is more of a "let's contend" year.
  20. Not Frobby, but guys like Gomes, Suzuki, and Vogt are all FAs that are still playing + Defense (Suzuki, not so much, but still has in the past and has worked with playoff staffs) and can be had for $5MM or less. Vogt makes like $3, Gomes makes like $5, and Suzuki makes like $1.5 (although his defense has declined and he's likely to retire).
  21. Yeah, that's definitely the problem with SP and 1 year "build value" contracts. We likely aren't the destination for that. Not sure I'm into giving Thor 2+ years at what we'd have to pay.. a ton of risk there. You're right that that's likely not happening.
  22. 100% this. Frankly, I'm OUT on Severino and you can get a guy like Yan Gomes to provide a veteran presence/mentor to Adley while playing good defense for very cheap. He only makes $5MM this year. Get Gomes or a Suzuki on a 2 year deal or something. Ideally you want cheaper than that, but we aren't contenders next year anyway, so who cares? Nothing is more destructive to a young SP than passed balls and shoddy framing, IMO.
  23. Absolutely. Ideally you get 1 guy you believe can be here for the run and if it's a SS or 2B (Semien?), that means guys like Westburg/Gunnar/Norby can be your attractive prospects to ship off for an elite SP in a year or two to add to GrayRod/Hall/Means + whatever shakes out between Baumann/Bradish/etc. Looking at going after Burnes or Marquez or someone of that ilk (essentially our Verlander/Greinke to the Astros plan). I figure the Mets may look to offer Thor a QO, but if not, maybe him as a rebound pillow 1 year deal candidate? I'd also explore Glasnow with the understanding he wo
  24. Agree on not spending on FA relievers, pretty much ever, except for a situation where you need 1 last piece to get over the top (legitimate WS contender). We have enough #4/#5 SP types where their stuff could play up in shorter stints. Big fan of converting failed starters to relievers, and I'm just not on board with relievers soaking up payroll. If I have $40MM to add, I'd much rather the Orioles commit $25-33MM to one of the premier SS options like Correa/Story (and this would even include a 1 year pillow contract to someone like Story trying to go for FA the following year) + expl
  25. Sorry guys, didn't realize my post actually went through because I went through the vetting thing before I could post. Appreciate the thoughtful responses and how welcoming everyone has been. Admittedly, I agree, I doubt Mullins could return these types of packages right now, but, to trade him, I think you have to get returns like these to make it even viable. Marlins are definitely known to be looking for CF and whether the rumor of them shopping Meyer for Marsh is true or not, there is enough smoke there for him to be "available". Agree with the other poster where if you had
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