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JTrea81

Offense, not pitching is going to be the key to 2011

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Anybody who believes that offense will win the games for us, not the pitching hasn't been watching enough O's games this year. It's obvious, pitching is the key to winning games. We need pitching. We have a good offense, our pitching is another story.

The problem is our pitching will never be great with what we have currently. Average to slightly above is the best we can shoot for IMO.

Our offense we can improve to be great as it is above average now in certain categories.

We can compete with a average pitching staff and a great offense and that's really how this team needs to be built IMO to take advantage of the hitter friendly parks in the AL East and minimize the pitching disadvantages of those parks.

We can worry about having "great" pitching when we reach the playoffs. Right now we have to focus on how to get there based on what we have now.

Edited by JTrea81

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The problem is our pitching will never be great with what we have. Average to slightly above is the best we can shoot for.

Our offense we can improve to be great as it is above average now in certain categories.

We can compete with a average pitching staff and a great offense.

We can also compete with an above average top great rotation and an average or so offense.

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We can also compete with an above average top great rotation and an average or so offense.

But we don't have the pieces for that now IMO.

To gain those pieces will be a lot more difficult IMO, than to build the team from the strengths we have now.

If you want to blow it up and start from scratch, you might be able to build that type of team, but that's the only way you are going to do it IMO.

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But we don't have the pieces for that now IMO.To gain those pieces will be a lot more difficult IMO, than to build the team from the strengths we have now.

If you want to blow it up and start from scratch, you might be able to build that type of team, but that's the only way you are going to do it IMO.

We don't have the pieces to do it either way, which is why your go for it attitude is wrong.

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But we don't have the pieces for that now IMO.

To gain those pieces will be a lot more difficult IMO, than to build the team from the strengths we have now.

If you want to blow it up and start from scratch, you might be able to build that type of team, but that's the only way you are going to do it IMO.

I forget who, but someone on this site calls you a genius. They are right. You just moved the ball so skillfully...most probably didn't notice.

Here's how any team can get better. They can find the areas where the player acquired adds the most value over what they have in house. Nobody can acquire those players if they're not available. It stands to reason the that the O's could theoretically get better by acquiring a guy like Pujols, as opposed to a guy like Darvish who (in this hypothetical) can't pitch every 5 days.

The fact is, the Orioles' results are weakest in the pitching department, so it stands to reason that we could achieve a greater improvement by upgrading our staff. This could be done with simple growth of in-house talent, trades, FA signings, whatever, but we have more room to improve our staff than we have to improve our offense, in general.

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The problem is our pitching will never be great with what we have currently. Average to slightly above is the best we can shoot for IMO.

Have you actually looked at this in any detail? The O's are about 150 runs scored behind the Yanks, 175 behind the Sox. They're 120 runs allowed behind the Sox, more than 200 behind the Yanks.

Signing Prince Fielder makes the O's roughly 100 runs scored behind the Yanks (if all goes well), and 125 behind the Sox, and they're still 120-200 behind in the allowed column (maybe a few more because of defense). After you spend almost all of your available revenues on Prince Fielder you're still 200, 250 runs from contention. That's 20, 25 wins. How do you bridge that gap? Even the most optimistic look can't have more than ~10 of those wins coming internally. You're still 10-15 wins out no matter what you do.

Even you can't think it's plausible for the O's to acquire three top free agents on the offensive side during the same offseason they move the pitching up from worst in the world to league average. Can you? I have extreme doubts it could work even if Angelos gives the mythical new GM a blank check.

The win now philosophy is broken, and it can't be fixed.

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The win now philosophy is broken, and it can't be fixed.

Sure it can. But it would be 100% dependent on our young pitchers pitching as they did for the last two months in 2010. While not probable, it is possible. Throw in continued improvement of Wieters and the addition of Fielder and a qualtiy starter this team could compete. But it is the only way it can "win" now.

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Have you actually looked at this in any detail? The O's are about 150 runs scored behind the Yanks, 175 behind the Sox. They're 120 runs allowed behind the Sox, more than 200 behind the Yanks.

Signing Prince Fielder makes the O's roughly 100 runs scored behind the Yanks (if all goes well), and 125 behind the Sox, and they're still 120-200 behind in the allowed column (maybe a few more because of defense). After you spend almost all of your available revenues on Prince Fielder you're still 200, 250 runs from contention. That's 20, 25 wins. How do you bridge that gap? Even the most optimistic look can't have more than ~10 of those wins coming internally. You're still 10-15 wins out no matter what you do.

Even you can't think it's plausible for the O's to acquire three top free agents on the offensive side during the same offseason they move the pitching up from worst in the world to league average. Can you? I have extreme doubts it could work even if Angelos gives the mythical new GM a blank check.

The win now philosophy is broken, and it can't be fixed.

This team has more payroll room than $20-25 million. They will have to significantly expand the payroll, however, no doubt about that, in order to get the pieces they'll need through trades and FA. They can't just stop at Fielder.

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This team has more payroll room than $20-25 million.

Your saying so doesn't make it so. The payroll this year is $87 mm. The highest payroll they ever had was $93 mm. So far as I can see, they have $65 mm committed to players who will be here next year: $43 mm to five players under contract for 2012, $15 mm to Guthrie, Jones and JJ, and a minimum of $7 mm to other players (17 players making the minimum would cost that much). That leaves $22 mm to equal this year's payroll, $28 mm to equal the highest payroll they've ever had. Remember, MacPhail had to go get permission to sign Vlad because he had already reached his payroll budget. I know you believe that Angelos is just dying to turn on the spigot if Buck asks him to do it, but there is zero evidence of that.

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Your saying so doesn't make it so. The payroll this year is $87 mm. The highest payroll they ever had was $93 mm. So far as I can see, they have $65 mm committed to players who will be here next year: $43 mm to five players under contract for 2012, $15 mm to Guthrie, Jones and JJ, and a minimum of $7 mm to other players (17 players making the minimum would cost that much). That leaves $22 mm to equal this year's payroll, $28 mm to equal the highest payroll they've ever had. Remember, MacPhail had to go get permission to sign Vlad because he had already reached his payroll budget. I know you believe that Angelos is just dying to turn on the spigot if Buck asks him to do it, but there is zero evidence of that.

Non-tendering Luke Scott would save $6 million. Felix Pie will save a million at least and there's got to be one other non-tender out there on the roster.

We've got plenty of dreck that doesn't need a roster spot and can be replaced with a minor league signing. And then there's the money they can choose to spend or not and are right now choosing not to.

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Non-tendering Luke Scott would save $6 million. Felix Pie will save a million at least and there's got to be one other non-tender out there on the roster.

We've got plenty of dreck that doesn't need a roster spot and can be replaced with a minor league signing. And then there's the money they can choose to spend or not and are right now choosing not to.

My calculations assumed Scott and Pie are gone. Markakis, Roberts, Hardy, Reynolds and Gregg cost $43 mm, and Guthrie, Jones and Johnson (all arbitration eligible) will cost $15 mm. That leaves 17 spots that have to cost $7 mm or more altogether even if you stock them with guys making the minimum. Matusz made $1.4 mm this year so he has to make at least $1.1 mm whether you like it or not; Andino is arbitration-eligible; and we're waiting to find out if Wieters is a Super-2 (and even if not, I'd bet the O's will give him a nice raise). So really, those 17 spots will cost $8-9 mm no matter what.

As to the money they can "choose to spend," I'm waiting for any evidence that such a choice will be made by PA.

Edited by Frobby

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