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Just to get an idea of what you think we could get, and should trade him for; do you think a trade for Alonso from CIN is fair? I think CIN should need to add more to that.

Even if they needed more than that...aren't we filling a need here? I mean with Matusz, Britton, Arrieta in the fold, and with no first baseman anywhere near in sight anything added here I have to think is worthwhile. I guess at this point we'll know what we have in the first pick of the draft and if Cole somehow falls, or we get Hultzen or another short term college ready arm, why wouldn't we be willing to make this deal.

If you buy our window is 2 - 3 years long after this year aren't we better served getting some talent at 1b. Look at what we've gotten out of Lee/Vlad this year. With continuing to have stop gaps constantly, even if we were to pursue fielder, I'd be much happier with Alonso in the fold to give us some DH/1b flexibility. Much happier than with what Guthrie is giving us. If we can't score the runs to win him games, it does beg the question where are we going to get future offense from?

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Define this.

And it depends on who that player is to say its a wash or not...and you aren't taking into account salary, age. organizational need and service time when you say "its a wash".

I can not define it, as it depends on the players involved, I agree, age, salary and organizational need are all factors. How about I simplify it for you. I do not want equal value for Guthrie. I want, at a minimum someone that is assured to be an impact player on this team, similar to what Guthrie brings AND then some. I personally don't think he brings that back. We know what we have in Guthrie. The grass is not always greener. For a team that has been pitching poor for a decade, I find it amazing, that you and others are advocating trading and in your case, almost demanding, a Guthrie deal. If he is dealt, I can see this boad next year screaming for starting pitching and wondering why we dealt him for the Josh Bell's of the world.

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I think you can only trade Guthrie, if in 2 years, you are willing to go out and get a good SP not great, but at least good. If we can get a solid Position player out of the deal then I think you move him. Hopefully in two years everyone is seasoned and playing well, we would have a good mix of veterans and prime players, and a solid pitching core, that one solid pitcher would bring us to where we need to be.

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Just to get an idea of what you think we could get, and should trade him for; do you think a trade for Alonso from CIN is fair? I think CIN should need to add more to that.

I would trade him for Alonso...But I think an Alonso and Cozart deal would be something I could see Cinci doing IF Alonso isn't going to make it in the OF and if they need a starting pitcher.

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I can not define it, as it depends on the players involved, I agree, age, salary and organizational need are all factors. How about I simplify it for you. I do not want equal value for Guthrie. I want, at a minimum someone that is assured to be an impact player on this team, similar to what Guthrie brings AND then some. I personally don't think he brings that back. We know what we have in Guthrie. The grass is not always greener. For a team that has been pitching poor for a decade, I find it amazing, that you and others are advocating trading and in your case, almost demanding, a Guthrie deal. If he is dealt, I can see this boad next year screaming for starting pitching and wondering why we dealt him for the Josh Bell's of the world.

Ok, so at the end of the day, you just want to be unrealistic about his trade value.

That's fine but its a poor strategy and part of the reason we have been a giant loser for 13 years.

Its a short sighted approach to a long term issue and ignores too many intelligent and common sense things.

Problem is, I think AM would agree with you.

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IIRC, there were a few anonymously quoted GMs last season who commented that they had wished they traded for Guthrie before the deadline. Maybe I'm wrong, but some news to that effect definitely broke.

I think Guthrie would be judged fairly by other GMs. His numbers don't shout ACE but when you look at the division he's in, you quickly realize that he is an above-average pitcher. For an above-average pitcher, you should be able to pull 2 very good prospects.

Even if that were the case, the GM´s that may currently be interested in Guthrie are still very likely going to try play down his value as much as they can (unless they want to give up more than they have to to acquire him). If they were "quoted anonymously," then obviously that won´t be able to be used by MacPhail as leveredge if and when he tries to trade Guthrie. They aren´t going to come to the table saying, "You know Andy, I was one of the GM´s that really regrets not trying to get Guthrie last year, and I would really love to have him now, because he is so much better of a pitcher than what his numbers indicate."

..

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Ok, so at the end of the day, you just want to be unrealistic about his trade value.

That's fine but its a poor strategy and part of the reason we have been a giant loser for 13 years.

Its a short sighted approach to a long term issue and ignores too many intelligent and common sense things.

Problem is, I think AM would agree with you.

This is where you go wrong. We do not have to trade Guthrie. Somehow you think we do. If we do not have to trade him, then we are in a position to demand more then equal value. It is really simple.

In fact im not unrealistic at all. I think you are, in what he might bring. My point of the entire post is that Guthrie is worth more to us then what he will bring. So you dont just make a move to make a move. Especially when you are not rich in pitching. It makes no sense.

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This is where you go wrong. We do not have to trade Guthrie. Somehow you think we do. If we do not have to trade him, then we are in a position to demand more then equal value. It is really simple.

In fact im not unrealistic at all. I think you are, in what he might bring. My point of the entire post is that Guthrie is worth more to us then what he will bring. So you dont just make a move to make a move. Especially when you are not rich in pitching. It makes no sense.

I don't get this idea that he is so valuable and that we can't trade him yet no one will give up anything for him.

Either he is valuable or he's not.

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This is where you go wrong. We do not have to trade Guthrie. Somehow you think we do. If we do not have to trade him, then we are in a position to demand more then equal value. It is really simple.

In fact im not unrealistic at all. I think you are, in what he might bring. My point of the entire post is that Guthrie is worth more to us then what he will bring. So you dont just make a move to make a move. Especially when you are not rich in pitching. It makes no sense.

Nobody has ever said trade him to trade him. I don't know why you make it seem like that is what has been said. You trade him because hes got a good contract and we need to move pieces that aren't part of the long term picture but do bring in players who will be. If it is the case that the players offered aren't worth more or the same as what he is in the rotation (and the price of his salary) then you don't trade him. Its simple.

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The O's need to trade Guthrie. We have multiple holes to fill and Guthrie will soon be past his prime. In addition for whatever reason Guthrie just doesn't win. It doesn't matter that it's not his fault, the O's consistently lose games that he pitches, so it is very hard to argue that he would be greatly missed. He does eat innings and greatly helps the bullpen but he has not had a winning record with the O's.

My fear is that the O's FO can't scout talent and won't get productive player(s) in return.

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Nobody has ever said trade him to trade him. I don't know why you make it seem like that is what has been said. You trade him because hes got a good contract and we need to move pieces that aren't part of the long term picture but do bring in players who will be. If it is the case that the players offered aren't worth more or the same as what he is in the rotation (and the price of his salary) then you don't trade him. Its simple.

You would think.

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The O's need to trade Guthrie. We have multiple holes to fill and Guthrie will soon be past his prime. In addition for whatever reason Guthrie just doesn't win. It doesn't matter that it's not his fault, the O's consistently lose games that he pitches, so it is very hard to argue that he would be greatly missed. He does eat innings and greatly helps the bullpen but he has not had a winning record with the O's.

You really do have to wonder whether the trend of Guthrie getting poor run and bullpen support, which has lasted 4+ years, is going to continue. Analytically, it seems you would say it's just a statistical fluke and there is no reason to think he won't get average run and bullpen support in the future. But this has been going on so long, you have to wonder whether the team feels more pressure when he is pitching and underperforms as a result. If that's the case, then Guthrie has more value to another team than he does to us.

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I would trade him for Alonso...But I think an Alonso and Cozart deal would be something I could see Cinci doing IF Alonso isn't going to make it in the OF and if they need a starting pitcher.

Cozart seems more like a throw in than anything else. From what I can tell, he's Andino with options. That has it's value, but I think Cozart + Alonso (and his lack of power) isn't enough to make up for losing Guthrie. I guess it depends on whether you trust your scouts who tell you that the HR power is developing and will be there.

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You really do have to wonder whether the trend of Guthrie getting poor run and bullpen support, which has lasted 4+ years, is going to continue. Analytically, it seems you would say it's just a statistical fluke and there is no reason to think he won't get average run and bullpen support in the future. But this has been going on so long, you have to wonder whether the team feels more pressure when he is pitching and underperforms as a result. If that's the case, then Guthrie has more value to another team than he does to us.

Sounds like a better reason to improve the offense then to trade Guthrie.

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