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Frobby

A look at the Orioles, by month

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April (12-12)-- 4.61 R/G (6th), 4.64 ERA (12th), 4.91 RA (12th)

May (15-15)--- 3.90 R/G (11th), 4.00 ERA (12th), 4.07 RA (6th)

June (16-12)---4.46 R/G (5th), 3.43 ERA (4th), 3.71 RA (4th)

July (17-8) ---- 4.08 R/G (8th), 2.96 ERA (3rd), 3.28 RA (3rd)

Aug. (19-9) --- 4.82 R/G (3rd), 3.08 ERA (5th), 3.11 RA (3rd)

Sept. (17-10) - 4.37 R/G (5th), 2.67 ERA (1st), 3.11 RA (1st)

It's been about the pitching, folks. The pitching was consistently stellar after May.

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I would have bet everything I had that the pitching could not have been this good for so long. Dave Wallace should win some kind of award. Wow.

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I would have bet everything I had that the pitching could not have been this good for so long. Dave Wallace should win some kind of award. Wow.

I agree, and if there was a game management award for catchers, Joseph should win it. Its like night and day vs. when Weiters was catching.

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April 2015

10-10 record

9-10 vs. AL East

6-4 at home

4-6 on the road

1-0 in extra innings

3-3 in one run games

5.60 runs scored per game was 1st in the AL

.827 OPS was 1st in the AL

.345 OBP was 3rd in the AL

.286 BA was 3rd in the AL

.482 SLG was 1st in the AL

1.45 HR/game was 1st in the AL

.311/.381/.503 with RISP (203 PA, 167 AB)

4.78 ERA was 13th in the AL

1.30 HR allowed/game was 14th in the AL

5.20 RA was 14th in the AL

5.06 starters' ERA was 12th in AL

4.35 bullpen ERA was 13th in AL

5.25 IP per start was 14th in the AL

6 save opportunities was 12th in the AL

4 saves was tied for 10th in the AL

2 blown saves was tied for 10th in the AL

12 unearned runs allowed was 14th in the AL

.75 errors per game (15 total) was 11th in the AL

5 Rtot

0.6 dWAR

4.6 fangraphs Def.

Conclusion: Pretty simple story here: offense great, pitching terrible. The starting pitchers had way too many short starts and overexposed the bullpen. The pen's ERA was bad but of the two blown saves, one didn't cost us a win (Britton's blown save against the Red Sox where we won on Lough's walk-off) and the other one came in the 7th inning (Hunter allowing 4 runs to blow a 2-run lead); both blown saves came in well-pitched games by Wei-Yin Chen. The defense was a mixed bag, with the advanced stats showing we were above average while traditional stats said we were below average. One thing that can't be disputed is that the defensive miscues came at very inopportune times, with 15 errors leading to 12 unearned runs, not counting the 4 unearned runs that were taken off the board when a play involving Snider was changed from an error to a hit.

Edited by Frobby

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May 2015

13-16 record

6-7 vs. AL East

9-8 at home

4-8 on the road

0-1 in extra innings

4-5 in one run games

3.28 runs scored per game was 14th in the AL

.645 OPS was last in the AL

.287 was last in the AL

.231 BA was last in the AL

.358 SLG was 14th in the AL

0.97 HR/game was tied for 7th in the AL

.274/.355/.398 with RISP (203 PA, 171 AB)

3.38 ERA was 2nd in the AL

0.93 HR allowed/game was 5th best in the AL

3.59 RA was 2nd in the AL

3.84 starters' ERA

2.40 bullpen ERA

6.07 IP per start

12 save opportunities was tied for 6th in the AL

11 saves was tied for 3rd in the AL

1 blown save was tied for best in the AL

7 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th in the AL

.41 errors per game (12 total)

5 Rtot

0.2 dWAR

-1.1 fangraps Def.

Cumulative through May

4.22 runs scored per game was 9th in the AL

.721 OPS was 7th in the AL

.311 OBP was 11th in the AL

.254 BA was 6th in the AL

.410 SLG was 5th in the AL

1.16 HR/game was 5th in the AL

.293/.368/.450 with RISP (406 PA, 338 AB)

3.94 ERA was 10th in the AL

1.08 HR allowed per game is 14th in the AL

4.24 RA was 9th in the AL

4.29 starters' ERA was 9th in the AL

3.28 bullpen ERA was 6th in the AL

5.73 IP/start was 11th in the AL

18 save opportunities was 10th in the AL

15 saves was 8th in the AL

3 blown saves was tied for best in the AL

27 errors was 3rd best in the AL

19 unearned runs allowed was 10th in the AL

10 Rtot

0.8 dWAR

3.5 fangraphs Def.

Conclusion: Opposite story from April: pitching great, offense terrible. The team was held to two runs or less 14 times in 29 games, and lost 13 of those. The defense tightened up a bit in the traditional sense (.41 errors/game vs. .75 in April, .24 unearned runs per game vs. .60 in April), but the advanced stats say the defense was actually a bit worse. Certainly, there were many misplays in the OF. Simply put, the offense needs to get back on track for this team to win more games going forward. The pitching made a nice rebound, but is still not quite hitting on all cylinders with Tillman struggling and Norris' spot uncertain.

Edited by Frobby

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June 2015

18-10 record

9-3 vs. AL East

10-3 at home

8-7 on the road

0-0 in extra innings

4-3 in one run games

5.29 runs scored per game was 2nd in the AL

.785 OPS was 2nd in the AL

.324 OBP was 6th in the AL

.273 BA was 4th in the AL

.461 SLG was 1st in the AL

1.36 HR/game was 4th in the AL

.352/.373/.520 with RISP (257 PA, 227 AB)

3.53 ERA was 5th in the AL

1.04 HR allowed/game was 8th best in the AL

3.64 RA was 6th in the AL

4.40 starters' ERA

2.11 bullpen ERA

5.40 IP per start

12 save opportunities was tied for 2nd in the AL

10 saves was 3rd in the AL

2 blown saves was tied for 5th lowest in the AL

6 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th in the AL

.29 errors per game (8 total)

01 Rtot

0.2 dWAR

1.4 fangraps Def.

Cumulative through June

4.61 runs scored per game was 3rd in the AL

.745 OPS was 4th in the AL

.316 OBP was 9th in the AL

.261 BA was 4th in the AL

.429 SLG was 2nd in the AL

1.23 HR/game was 4th in the AL

.317/.375/.478 with RISP (663 PA, 565 AB, 179 H, 270 TB, 245 TOB)

3.79 ERA was 4th in the AL

1.06 HR allowed per game is 10th in the AL

4.03 RA was 7th in the AL

4.33 starters' ERA was 10th in the AL

2.83 bullpen ERA was 3rd in the AL

5.61 IP/start was 13th in the AL

30 save opportunities was tied for 7th in the AL

25 saves was tied for 3rd in the AL

5 blown saves was tied for 3rd best in the AL

27 errors was best in the AL

25 unearned runs allowed was 7th best in the AL

9 Rtot

0.9 dWAR

4.9 fangraphs Def.

Conclusion: The offense once again reversed course from the previous month, finishing near the top in all categories for the month, and with tremendous RISP hitting for the month. The pitching overall was respectable, but the starting pitching was pretty lousy while the bullpen carried the day. The defense was very steady though not spectacular by the advanced metrics.

Edited by Frobby

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A quick snapshot of three key stats:

APR: 5.60 runs/game (1st), .827 OPS (1st), 4.78 ERA (13th)

MAY: 3.28 runs/game (14th), .645 OPS (15th), 3.38 ERA (2nd)

JUN: 5.29 runs/game (2nd), .785 OPS (2nd), 3.64 ERA (6th)

That's pretty crazy. Who knows what July will bring?

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A quick snapshot of three key stats:

APR: 5.60 runs/game (1st), .827 OPS (1st), 4.78 ERA (13th)

MAY: 3.28 runs/game (14th), .645 OPS (15th), 3.38 ERA (2nd)

JUN: 5.29 runs/game (2nd), .785 OPS (2nd), 3.64 ERA (6th)

That's pretty crazy. Who knows what July will bring?

Great stuff Frobby! Those are some very bi-polar stats. Let's hope we continue to play like its June.

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How do we have 11 saves, 12 opportunities, and 2 blown saves? Is this because of the game where DOD blew a save in the 8th, but Britton got the save in the 9th? Is that just considered one opportunity?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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How do we have 11 saves, 12 opportunities, and 2 blown saves? Is this because of the game where DOD blew a save in the 8th, but Britton got the save in the 9th? Is that just considered one opportunity?

No, just a typo on my part. 10 saves, not 11. I've fixed it. The part about being 3rd in the AL was correct.

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July 2015

11-14 record

2-4 vs. AL East

6-4 at home

5-10 on the road

1-1 in extra innings

3-6 in one run games

3.72 runs scored per game was 12th in the AL

.683 OPS was 12th in the AL

.289 OBP was 14th in the AL

.233 BA was 13th in the AL

.394 SLG was 11th in the AL

1.36 HR/game was 6th in the AL

.173/.237/.280 with RISP (186 PA, 168 AB)

3.63 ERA was 6th in the AL

1.04 HR allowed/game was 9th best in the AL

3.71 RA was 4th in the AL

3.93 starters' ERA

3.49 bullpen ERA

5.96 IP per start

7 save opportunities was tied for 12th in the AL

5 saves was tied for 9th in the AL

2 blown saves was tied for 4th lowest in the AL

2 unearned runs allowed was best in the AL

.52 errors per game (13 total)

6 Rtot

1.8 dWAR

8.9 fangraphs Def.

Cumulative through July

4.39 runs scored per game was tied for 5th in the AL

.730 OPS was 5th in the AL

.310 OBP was 11th in the AL

.254 BA was 6th in the AL

.420 SLG was 5th in the AL

1.26 HR/game was 4th in the AL

.285/.345/.432 with RISP (849 PA, 733 AB, 208 H, 317 TB, 289 TOB)

3.75 ERA was 6th in the AL

1.06 HR allowed per game is 10th in the AL

3.92 RA was 6th in the AL

4.23 starters' ERA was 9th in the AL

2.87 bullpen ERA was 3rd in the AL

5.70 IP/start was 11th in the AL

37 save opportunities was tied for 7th in the AL

30 saves was 5th in the AL

7 blown saves was tied for 2nd best in the AL

40 errors was best in the AL

27 unearned runs allowed was tied for 4th best in the AL

15 Rtot

2.7 dWAR

13.8 fangraphs Def. was 3rd in the AL

Conclusion: As in May, lack of offense was the story, as we were near the bottom in all categories and really fell off a cliff in RISP hitting. Both the starting pitching and the bullpen were solid if not spectacular. The defense was really excellent, yielding only two unearned runs and piling up very good numbers in the advanced defensive stats.

This year, it’s mostly been about the offense so far. The pitching is decent, good enough to win when we’re hitting, but not strong enough to carry the team when the offense is slumping.

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August 2015

11-18 record

0-1 vs. AL East

6-7 at home

5-11 on the road

2-3 in extra innings

3-7 in one run games

4.10 runs scored per game was 12th in the AL

.706 OPS was 12th in the AL

.292 OBP was 13th in the AL

.247 BA was 11th in the AL

.414 SLG was 8th in the AL

1.38 HR/game was 3rd in the AL

.268/.351/.478 with RISP (239 PA, 209 AB)

4.37 ERA was 10th in the AL

1.14 HR allowed/game was 8th best in the AL

4.51 RA was 9th in the AL

5.23 starters' ERA

2.76 bullpen ERA

5.87 IP per start

6 save opportunities was last in the AL

3 saves was tied for last in the AL

3 blown saves was tied for 5th lowest in the AL

4 unearned runs allowed was tied for best in the AL

.48 errors per game (14 total)

-5 Rtot

-0.7 dWAR

-0.8 fangraphs Def.

Cumulative through August

4.33 runs scored per game was 9th in the AL

.724 OPS was 8th in the AL

.305 OBP was 13th in the AL

.252 BA was 9th in the AL

.419 SLG was 5th in the AL

1.29 HR/game was 4th in the AL

.280/.343/.443 with RISP (1088 PA, 942 AB, 264 H, 417 TB, 373 TOB)

3.89 ERA was 7th in the AL

1.08 HR allowed per game is 11th best in the AL

4.05 RA was 6th in the AL

4.45 starters' ERA was 13th in the AL

2.84 bullpen ERA was 3rd in the AL

5.74 IP/start was 13th in the AL

43 save opportunities was 12th in the AL

33 saves was tied for 8th in the AL

10 blown saves 4th best in the AL

54 errors was best in the AL

27 unearned runs allowed was tied for 2nd best in the AL

10 Rtot

2.0 dWAR

13.0 fangraphs Def. was 3rd in the AL

Conclusion: There's lots of blame to spread around for August, with an offense that was 12th in runs scored per game and a starting pitching staff that posted a 5.23 ERA for the month. The bullpen had a good 2.76 ERA but the two blown saves in the Minnesota series were very costly and may have had a big role in sending the team into the current tailspin. The defense was pretty solid based on standard metrics, but advanced metrics suggest it was a bit subpar this month. A month that started out decently (10-7) ended in calamity (1-11), and in all likelihood, ended the contending part of our season. It would take a miracle to get back in the wild card race at this point.

Edited by Frobby

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August 2015

11-18 record

0-1 vs. AL East

6-7 at home

5-11 on the road

2-3 in extra innings

3-7 in one run games

4.10 runs scored per game was 12th in the AL

.706 OPS was 12th in the AL

.292 OBP was 13th in the AL

.247 BA was 11th in the AL

.414 SLG was 8th in the AL

1.38 HR/game was 3rd in the AL

.268/.351/.478 with RISP (239 PA, 209 AB)

4.37 ERA was 10th in the AL

1.14 HR allowed/game was 8th best in the AL

4.51 RA was 9th in the AL

5.23 starters' ERA

2.76 bullpen ERA

5.87 IP per start

6 save opportunities was last in the AL

3 saves was tied for last in the AL

3 blown saves was tied for 5th lowest in the AL

4 unearned runs allowed was tied for best in the AL

.48 errors per game (14 total)

-5 Rtot

-0.7 dWAR

-0.8 fangraphs Def.

Cumulative through August

4.33 runs scored per game was 9th in the AL

.724 OPS was 8th in the AL

.305 OBP was 13th in the AL

.252 BA was 9th in the AL

.419 SLG was 5th in the AL

1.29 HR/game was 4th in the AL

.280/.343/.443 with RISP (1088 PA, 942 AB, 264 H, 417 TB, 373 TOB)

3.89 ERA was 7th in the AL

1.08 HR allowed per game is 11th best in the AL

4.05 RA was 6th in the AL

4.45 starters' ERA was 13th in the AL

2.84 bullpen ERA was 3rd in the AL

5.74 IP/start was 13th in the AL

43 save opportunities was 12th in the AL

33 saves was tied for 8th in the AL

10 blown saves 4th best in the AL

54 errors was best in the AL

27 unearned runs allowed was tied for 2nd best in the AL

10 Rtot

2.0 dWAR

13.0 fangraphs Def. was 3rd in the AL

Conclusion: There's lots of blame to spread around for August, with an offense that was 12th in runs scored per game and a starting pitching staff that posted a 5.23 ERA for the month. The bullpen had a good 2.76 ERA but the two blown saves in the Minnesota series were very costly and may have had a big role in sending the team into the current tailspin. The defense was pretty solid based on standard metrics, but advanced metrics suggest it was a bit subpar this month. A month that started out decently (10-7) ended in calamity (1-11), and in all likelihood, ended the contending part of our season. It would take a miracle to get back in the wild card race at this point.

Frobby, thanks for your research. It looks like the team has been failing on several fronts. Not either just the starting pitching or just the offense. That's what the numbers show.

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