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LOL!

Nick, have you ever talked to teams and heard them talk about a "baseball budget"? How, they can spend x amount of dollars on the ML team and amateur talent combined? Does what they spend on the ML team effect some for the draft/int'l signings?

I can't see how there is no impact for most organizations.

No, those decisions are well above the heads of the Area Scouts I brush up against. I do hear scouts from certain organizations complain along the lines of, "We're not going to cough up the money to sign this kid anyway, so I don't know why I'm even writing him up."

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Does KC have the best system by accident?

From 2008-10 (only years for which I have data), the Orioles spent $24.8 mm, the Royals spent $24.5 mm. The average team spent $19.1 mm. The Orioles spent the 4th most, behind the Pirates, Red Sox and Nats. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2010/08/bonus-expenditures-2008-10/

When comparing the Royals to the Orioles, a few things stand out. First, the Royals' top picks from 2007 (Moustakas, drafted 2nd overall) and 2008 (Hosmer, drafted 3rd overall) were still in the farm system this winter when rankings were done, whereas our top picks from those years (Wieters and Matusz) were in the majors. Those were BA's top 2 players in the Royals' system (and no. 8 and 9 in the BA top 100), so obviously the fact that the Royals picked two high school guys who were still in their system, whereas we picked two college guys who are out of our system already, has an enormous influence on how the two systems are ranked. Also, their 2007 $365,000 overslot, Danny Duffy (ranked #68 by BA), was still in their system when rankings were done, whereas our $1.1 mm overslot, Jake Arrieta, was already in the majors.

The Royals also had a 1st round supplemental pick in 2008, Mike Montgomery, who is their no. 5 prospect (BA no. 19). We didn't have any supplemental picks since 2006.

That said, the Royals do have some big overslots performing well. Will Myers received a $2 mm bonus as a round 3 overslot in 2009 and BA now ranks him the no. 10 prospect in MLB. Chris Dwyer received a $1.45 mm bonus in the 4th round that year and he is now ranked no. 83. In fact, when I compare how the two teams have done in the draft in recent years, what really stands out is that the Royals got good value for their money in 2009, whereas the guys we paid are not producing. We outspent the Royals $8.7 mm to $6.7 mm that year.

Edited by Frobby
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From 2008-10 (only years for which I have data), the Orioles spent $24.8 mm, the Royals spent $24.5 mm. The average team spent $19.1 mm. The Orioles spent the 4th most, behind the Pirates, Red Sox and Nats. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2010/08/bonus-expenditures-2008-10/

When comparing the Royals to the Orioles, a few things stand out. First, the Royals' top picks from 2007 (Moustakas, drafted 2nd overall) and 2008 (Hosmer, drafted 3rd overall) were still in the farm system this winter when rankings were done, whereas our top picks from those years (Wieters and Matusz) were in the majors. Those were BA's top 2 players in the Royals' system (and no. 8 and 9 in the BA top 100), so obviously the fact that the Royals picked two high school guys who were still in their system, whereas we picked two college guys who are out of our system already, has an enormous influence on how the two systems are ranked. Also, their 2007 $365,000 overslot, Danny Duffy (ranked #68 by BA), was still in their system when rankings were done, whereas our $1.1 mm overslot, Jake Arrieta, was already in the majors.

The Royals also had a 1st round supplemental pick in 2008, Mike Montgomery, who is their no. 5 prospect (BA no. 19). We didn't have any supplemental picks since 2006.

That said, the Royals do have some big overslots performing well. Will Myers received a $2 mm bonus as a round 3 overslot in 2009 and BA now ranks him the no. 10 prospect in MLB. Chris Dwyer received a $1.45 mm bonus in the 4th round that year and he is now ranked no. 83. In fact, when I compare how the two teams have done in the draft in recent years, what really stands out is that the Royals got good value for their money in 2009, whereas the guys we paid are not producing. We outspent the Royals $8.7 mm to $6.7 mm that year.

Thanks for taking the time to put that together. Very informatve.

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From 2008-10 (only years for which I have data), the Orioles spent $24.8 mm, the Royals spent $24.5 mm. The average team spent $19.1 mm. The Orioles spent the 4th most, behind the Pirates, Red Sox and Nats. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2010/08/bonus-expenditures-2008-10/

When comparing the Royals to the Orioles, a few things stand out. First, the Royals' top picks from 2007 (Moustakas, drafted 2nd overall) and 2008 (Hosmer, drafted 3rd overall) were still in the farm system this winter when rankings were done, whereas our top picks from those years (Wieters and Matusz) were in the majors. Those were BA's top 2 players in the Royals' system (and no. 8 and 9 in the BA top 100), so obviously the fact that the Royals picked two high school guys who were still in their system, whereas we picked two college guys who are out of our system already, has an enormous influence on how the two systems are ranked. Also, their 2007 $365,000 overslot, Danny Duffy (ranked #68 by BA), was still in their system when rankings were done, whereas our $1.1 mm overslot, Jake Arrieta, was already in the majors.

The Royals also had a 1st round supplemental pick in 2008, Mike Montgomery, who is their no. 5 prospect (BA no. 19). We didn't have any supplemental picks since 2006.

That said, the Royals do have some big overslots performing well. Will Myers received a $2 mm bonus as a round 3 overslot in 2009 and BA now ranks him the no. 10 prospect in MLB. Chris Dwyer received a $1.45 mm bonus in the 4th round that year and he is now ranked no. 83. In fact, when I compare how the two teams have done in the draft in recent years, what really stands out is that the Royals got good value for their money in 2009, whereas the guys we paid are not producing. We outspent the Royals $8.7 mm to $6.7 mm that year.

2007: Weiters - $6m Moustakas - $4m

2008: Matusz - $3.2m Hosmer - $6m

2009: Hobgood - $2.4m Crow - unsigned

2010: Machado - $5.2m Colon - $2.75m

Orioles: $16.8m Royals: $12.75m

First round spending the past 4 years. Which means the Royals are outspending us (with more draft picks) later in the draft.

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Honestly, I didn't ie the Vlad signing, or the Hobgood pick, but this love affair with prospects in all sports is a little over the top. If the Orioles get one all-star and a couple solid (not cup of coffee) major leaguers from this draft it'll be well above avg.

Paying people well above what they're worth just because they are demanding it doesn't strike me as a good way to maximize value.

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Honestly, I didn't ie the Vlad signing, or the Hobgood pick, but this love affair with prospects in all sports is a little over the top. If the Orioles get one all-star and a couple solid (not cup of coffee) major leaguers from this draft it'll be well above avg.

Paying people well above what they're worth just because they are demanding it doesn't strike me as a good way to maximize value.

Whether it is a young draftee or a FA, you are always overpaying.

At least if the draftee hits, you get them for 6 years where their salaries are very low.

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2007: Weiters - $6m Moustakas - $4m

2008: Matusz - $3.2m Hosmer - $6m

2009: Hobgood - $2.4m Crow - unsigned

2010: Machado - $5.2m Colon - $2.75m

Orioles: $16.8m Royals: $12.75m

First round spending the past 4 years. Which means the Royals are outspending us (with more draft picks) later in the draft.

Crow signed for $1.5million in 2009.

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Who cares...You and AM continue to bring this up but its meaningless...Most of that is driven by the fact that they draft very high and those guys get big bonuses. That may be good enough for you but its not for me.

A couple of points. First of all, money is money, whether you have to spend a lot of it one one top pick, or you get to spread it around. Also, we didn't spend that much on Matusz in 2008 or Hobgood in 2009; both years, we exceeded the average expenditure on the draft.

Second, I just think we haven't executed that well, regardless of spending. The 2009 draft really stands out as a stinker right now. We were 7th in overall spending and what do we have to show for it? Not a single guy in the BA top 100. Maybe that class will still pan out, but right now it just looks horrible.

Third, I want you to understand that I don't disagree with you that we haven't committed enough to the draft and international spending. I just think that the way you express it is too strong and too simplistic. I think international spending/infrastructure is a bigger problem than the draft spending is. I also do not believe that the "Vlad money" impacted the draft budget. I think Vlad was a special case where PA decided to exceed the payroll budget, and it did not impact other areas. Is that a logical way to run an organization? No. But I believe that's how it was done.

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A couple of points. First of all, money is money, whether you have to spend a lot of it one one top pick, or you get to spread it around. Also, we didn't spend that much on Matusz in 2008 or Hobgood in 2009; both years, we exceeded the average expenditure on the draft.
We should be spending it on the first pick and bigger slot deals...And yes, they did pay overslot for injured, lower round players...We should have been signing more sure thing guys in earlier rounds
I just think that the way you express it is too strong and too simplistic.
It is simplistic to want them to draft higher ceiling players than what they draft? If it is, oh well. I call it logic and common sense but to each his own.
I also do not believe that the "Vlad money" impacted the draft budget. I think Vlad was a special case where PA decided to exceed the payroll budget, and it did not impact other areas. Is that a logical way to run an organization? No. But I believe that's how it was done
Maybe, maybe not. Personally, I see no way to think that what is spent on the ML payroll doesn't effect the money they have to spend for the draft. Now, you can ask yourself, would they have spent it anyway? Maybe not...This organization is so poor that they don't see the forest through the trees.

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Crow signed for $1.5million in 2009.

Yeah but he signed in September so I figured it didn't count in that year's budget, since the rest of the spending for that year had to be done by August. Figured it was a special scenario.

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2007: Weiters - $6m Moustakas - $4m

2008: Matusz - $3.2m Hosmer - $6m

2009: Hobgood - $2.4m Crow - unsigned

2010: Machado - $5.2m Colon - $2.75m

Orioles: $16.8m Royals: $12.75m

First round spending the past 4 years. Which means the Royals are outspending us (with more draft picks) later in the draft.

You are mistaken about Crow - he was signed by KC in 2009, for a total package of $3 mm, of which $1.5 mm was signing bonus. Crow was unsigned the year before, by the Nats. Your overall point is still correct, but it's closer than the fugures above suggest. Montgomery, the supplemental pick (which Baltimore didn't have), signed for about $1 mm, which I believe is about slot money for where he was picked.

P.S. -- Just read what you wrote about Crow not being signed until September. I don't know if that matters or not in how BA accounted for this.

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We should be spending it on the first pick and bigger slot deals...And yes, they did pay overslot for injured, lower round players...We should have been signing more sure thing guys in earlier rounds

I agree here. But that's more about execution than spending. I think JJ's 2009 strategy failed miserably, more because of how he spent his money, not how much he spent. I suppose there is still time for some of his overslots from that year to pan out, but time's growing short.

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You are mistaken about Crow - he was signed by KC in 2009, for a total package of $3 mm, of which $1.5 mm was signing bonus. Crow was unsigned the year before, by the Nats. Your overall point is still correct, but it's closer than the fugures above suggest. Montgomery, the supplemental pick (which Baltimore didn't have), signed for about $1 mm, which I believe is about slot money for where he was picked.

P.S. -- Just read what you wrote about Crow not being signed until September. I don't know if that matters or not in how BA accounted for this.

Yeah I know, it's just hard to compare team's drafts to each other, it's apples to apples, but some are Gala, some are Granny Smith, and some are Golden Delicious. That's why I just tried to use the first rounders so it was just 1 to 1 spending wise. Once you add in the extra picks it gets all outta whack. With the extra supplementals KC was spending like $1m per pick @ slot like you said, and we haven't had one of those in like 6 years.

I guess it's thinking like an accountant, I treat 8/15 as the fiscal year end for the draft. Whatever you have in your budget, you blow it, if you aren't going to sign a 2nd rounder, spend that money and sign a couple lower guys and vice versa, so for Crow I figured on 8/16 that 09 budget was spent on other players and he was treated like signing a FA. Could be wrong, not really sure how that works budget wise for that org. If you add it in, it's 16.8m to 14.25m in the first rounds.

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