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Frobby

I'm liking this list

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This year's top prospects list is much deeper than last year's, which was deeper than the year before's. We are through 13 and I think we can still go at least 5 deep (Hoey, McCrory, Bascom, Bergeson, Moore) before we go from prospects to suspects. I might throw Berken in there, too.

Hoey is a pretty good illustration of how far the organization has come. Last year he was, I think, 8th on the list, on the strength of a season spent mostly in the lower minors. This year he comes back, utterly dominates at Bowie and Norfolk, and can't even crack the top 14. Now that is a sign of serious progress.

A lot of good stuff has happened since June. At that point, Reimold and Rowell were nursing their oblique injuries, Snyder wasn't hitting, Spoone was doing just OK, and we hadn't been able to sign Wieters and Arrieta. I was getting pretty demoralized. Things look a lot better five months later.

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It's a nice list and you left off Mahoney and Adams - hardly suspects, IMO.

Building a system is about three solid drafts in a row and I believe Jordan has done that.

I've been waiting for five years for the entire minor league talent base to take big steps forward at the same time. I try to be optimistic, but I believe we are primed for a big advance next year if everyone is healthy. There will be a LOT of talent at Frederick and Bowie next season. And Norfolk will likely have one of Liz/Olson, Penn and Reimold - three nice prospects.

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I agree Frobby.

Tony made the comment that he feels a lot better about the guys in the 8-20 range than he did last year.

I think we all do.

The system is a lot deeper than I was thinking it was BUT many of these guys needs to prove it at higher levels before we get too excited.

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The system is a lot deeper than I was thinking it was BUT many of these guys needs to prove it at higher levels before we get too excited.

Agreed. Next year is HUGE in terms of assessing where we are. Bowie and Frederick should be fascinating.

Of course, I'm hoping we can add a few more names to our list before Feb. 15.

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This is my first year here, so I don't have last year to compare it to, but I'm pretty impressed by the pitching depth on this list. To my eye, every pitcher on the list so far has a good chance to be useful in MLB (jury may still be out on Erbe). That's at least eight, and we still haven't gotten to Bascom or Hoey.

If the FO makes the right couple of trades this winter, do we blow this list up and get a new one in March? :D

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I still view Penn as a top 10 prospect and he won't be on the list. It is getting better, I just wish we had a ss prospect higher up in the system. I would really like to see us grab a shortstop in the first or second round next draft if (hopefully) the right guy is there. Probably need to spend the first pick on a pitcher (unless we land a Kershaw type in a trade) since we've gone position player in the last three.

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Where is the love for Brandon Tripp and Matt Angle fellas? These two guys had very good seasons and they are left out of most conversations about our top 20. Tripp is a big kid who is reputed to be an excellent athlete, very solid defender capable of playing CF and hits for average and power. Angle has little pop, but is skilled in every other facet of the game. :confused:

I am thrilled to see that we have so many prospects in the top 10 drafted high in rounds 1, 2 and 3. Eight of the top ten are in that category. Only Liz was here before Joe Jordan, and he was a free agent signee in 2003. Out of the possibles around the top 20, only Liz, Hoey, McCrory, Moore and Bergesen are pre-Jordan or obtained via trade. The last three drafts have been very good to us. By 2010 we should have a top 5-10 farm system if we can keep the current management in place. And if some of the trades come through as we hope, wow!

The changes in the development staff and philosophy are going to be huge...long overdue IMHO. I agree with SG that we need to see these guys have success at higher levels before we get too excited, but I'm optimistic that many in the top 20 are legit ML prospects.

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Where is the love for Brandon Tripp and Matt Angle fellas? These two guys had very good seasons and they are left out of most conversations about our top 20. Tripp is a big kid who is reputed to be an excellent athlete, very solid defender capable of playing CF and hits for average and power. Angle has little pop, but is skilled in every other facet of the game. :confused:

I am thrilled to see that we have so many prospects in the top 10 drafted high in rounds 1, 2 and 3. Eight of the top ten are in that category. Only Liz was here before Joe Jordan, and he was a free agent signee in 2003. Out of the possibles around the top 20, only Liz, Hoey, McCrory, Moore and Bergesen are pre-Jordan or obtained via trade. The last three drafts have been very good to us. By 2010 we should have a top 5-10 farm system if we can keep the current management in place. And if some of the trades come through as we hope, wow!

The changes in the development staff and philosophy are going to be huge...long overdue IMHO. I agree with SG that we need to see these guys have success at higher levels before we get too excited, but I'm optimistic that many in the top 20 are legit ML prospects.

I like Tripp for the reasons you stated but unfortunately he K'd a ton and was at pretty low level of the minors. Lot's to prove at the higher levels for a guy who will be 23 this year. As for Angle, he had a great debut and showed excellent plate discipline, normally something that bodes well for future advancement. Unfortunately for him, the total lack of power could negate that discipline as he advances as pitchers have very little to fear by throwing him strikes, particualarly when behind in the count. We'll see. If you saw my top 20 list, you know that I like Tripp more than some others.

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I like Tripp for the reasons you stated but unfortunately he K'd a ton and was at pretty low level of the minors. Lot's to prove at the higher levels for a guy who will be 23 this year. As for Angle, he had a great debut and showed excellent plate discipline, normally something that bodes well for future advancement. Unfortunately for him, the total lack of power could negate that discipline as he advances as pitchers have very little to fear by throwing him strikes, particualarly when behind in the count. We'll see. If you saw my top 20 list, you know that I like Tripp more than some others.

Before you start discounting Angle's lack of power, take a look at Brian Roberts first few years in the minors. He's got tremendous plate discipline, speed, he's good defensively in center field, and he's a baseball rat who had was a leader on his Ohio State team. He may end up the surprise of our draft last year, but we're taking a bit of a wait and see until we see him play a full season in the pros next year.

As for Tripp, he was hurt by his plate discipline and age for his level, but a big year next year at Frederick or even better if he could end up at Bowie by the end of next year would propel him up the prospect list. After his rough debut in Aberdeen and a long slump last summer, he'll need to prove he's a top guy by putting up big numbers next year. Still, it's nice to have a few of these guys later in the list. I can't remember the last time we've had hitters outside of the top ten who actually could still develop into everyday major leaguers.

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Before you start discounting Angle's lack of power, take a look at Brian Roberts first few years in the minors. He's got tremendous plate discipline, speed, he's good defensively in center field, and he's a baseball rat who had was a leader on his Ohio State team. He may end up the surprise of our draft last year, but we're taking a bit of a wait and see until we see him play a full season in the pros next year.

All that may be true, but I think Angle is even a step below Roberts in terms of power. Maybe that'll change, but he's never hit a single home run between college and his stint at Aberdeen. Roberts consistently had higher ISO numbers than Angle in the low minors. Maybe part of this was the park, but an .051 ISO for Angle is in Juan Pierre, Joey Gathright territory.

You have to be wary of the Richard Paz effect. A guy with zero power and lots of walks in short season ball often becomes a guy with zero power and half as many walks in AA. That's a recipe for a .650 OPS and spending your late 20s in the Atlantic League. Paz has more power than Angle.

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We have good depth, but outside of maybe Wieters, we don't have a Loney/Kemp or Pie or Kershaw-type prospect.Still we're 400 percent better than in the early part of the decade whan Bedard, who was recovering from TJ surgery at the time, was listed as OH's number one or two or something.

And drafting 4th this year mite get us that world-class stud we lack.

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Tony made the comment that he feels a lot better about the guys in the 8-20 range than he did last year.

Heck, remember five or so years ago? The OH #1 prospect (IIRC) was Luis Jimenez - yes that Luis Jimenez. I'd say we've made some nice progress since then!

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All that may be true, but I think Angle is even a step below Roberts in terms of power. Maybe that'll change, but he's never hit a single home run between college and his stint at Aberdeen. Roberts consistently had higher ISO numbers than Angle in the low minors. Maybe part of this was the park, but an .051 ISO for Angle is in Juan Pierre, Joey Gathright territory.

You have to be wary of the Richard Paz effect. A guy with zero power and lots of walks in short season ball often becomes a guy with zero power and half as many walks in AA. That's a recipe for a .650 OPS and spending your late 20s in the Atlantic League. Paz has more power than Angle.

All of that may be true Jon, and that's why he's not in our top ten, but at the same time, Roberts showed almost no power his first few years in the minors although I will admit Roberts showed some pop in college while Angle did not.

Angle may very well never have much power, but he has an excellent base to work from with good plate discipline, great speed, and solid defense at an "up the middle" defensive position. Paz had one skill set, he walked a lot so comparing those two is like apples to oranges if you ask me. Joey Gathwright is a great comp if you ask me, but from what I've heard, Angle is a better defensive outfielder.

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I still view Penn as a top 10 prospect and he won't be on the list. It is getting better, I just wish we had a ss prospect higher up in the system. I would really like to see us grab a shortstop in the first or second round next draft if (hopefully) the right guy is there. Probably need to spend the first pick on a pitcher (unless we land a Kershaw type in a trade) since we've gone position player in the last three.

Tim Beckham looks to be an elite SS prospect, some even prefer him over Pedro Alvarez for the upcoming draft. I'd be thrilled if the O's ended up taking him (at least that's my stance now). The only problem is that he is a high schoool kid, so his development will take a while.

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