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sloppyjoe

Yoennis Cespedes?

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It'll certainly be interesting to see who he winds up signing with, along with the rationale that underpins his team's decision to fork over the cash. Sounds like the sort of gamble the O's should be seriously investigating, at the least. Hope that's happening.
I agree. Sure, there's a considerable amount of risk there but if you could get early career Andruw Jones type numbers for 5-6 years for $30MM, that's something that needs to be looked into.

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You know, I'm not even going to weigh in, really. I'd defer to the scouts who get to see him up close and are good enough to get paid for what they are doing. From what I've read, seen, and heard, Cespedes is a special talent and could end up a top 10 prospect in baseball. That's a pretty valuable commodity. If he were on the free agent market with the kind of track record of success that some scouts project of him, he'd be competing with Prince and Pujols for the most lucrative contract.

However, he doesn't have that track record. He's a great athlete who has had a lot of success in Cuba, but we really know very little about how to translate production from that league.

This is a realm where you really have to trust your scouts. Multi-year deals that approach 8 digits per season are rare for int'l talents. But I will say that if Cespedes is anywhere near as good as he's hyped to be, he's a steal at that price.

You know what, I don't have much trouble with signing Cespedes - in spite of my reputation as anti-Int'l FA. And it's not because I think his offense translates. My guess is he ends up a .275/.320/.425 kind of guy. But defense translates anywhere. He's going to have significant value is my guess. Well within the signing range.

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You know, I'm not even going to weigh in, really. I'd defer to the scouts who get to see him up close and are good enough to get paid for what they are doing. From what I've read, seen, and heard, Cespedes is a special talent and could end up a top 10 prospect in baseball. That's a pretty valuable commodity. If he were on the free agent market with the kind of track record of success that some scouts project of him, he'd be competing with Prince and Pujols for the most lucrative contract.

However, he doesn't have that track record. He's a great athlete who has had a lot of success in Cuba, but we really know very little about how to translate production from that league.

This is a realm where you really have to trust your scouts. Multi-year deals that approach 8 digits per season are rare for int'l talents. But I will say that if Cespedes is anywhere near as good as he's hyped to be, he's a steal at that price.

Yeah, I'm with you, but I think I still do it. Call it a hunch, but I had the same kinda hunch on Sano, and he's looked really good since. I'd pay $30m to add a top 50 prospect to the system with no other strings attached.

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Yeah, I'm with you, but I think I still do it. Call it a hunch, but I had the same kinda hunch on Sano, and he's looked really good since. I'd pay $30m to add a top 50 prospect to the system with no other strings attached.

Given that he just turned 26, is the consensus that it's really going to take approximately $30 million to sign him? Particularly if he requires time in the minors, I'd think the uncertainty his "advanced" age adds to the situation would drop him below Chapman's contract.

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Given that he just turned 26, is the consensus that it's really going to take approximately $30 million to sign him? Particularly if he requires time in the minors, I'd think the uncertainty his "advanced" age adds to the situation would drop him below Chapman's contract.

You're still adding a player in his prime, and he won't need much adjustment time if any. Any numbers you hear right now are wild speculation, but would you rather spend $6m a year on Gregg, or $6m a year on a CF with a very advanced bat?

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Given that he just turned 26, is the consensus that it's really going to take approximately $30 million to sign him? Particularly if he requires time in the minors, I'd think the uncertainty his "advanced" age adds to the situation would drop him below Chapman's contract.
You're still adding a player in his prime, and he won't need much adjustment time if any. Any numbers you hear right now are wild speculation, but would you rather spend $6m a year on Gregg, or $6m a year on a CF with a very advanced bat?

If folks think he needs refinement in the minors, he won't get that kind of cash. My guess is that folks think he has immediate MLB value right now, the only question is, how does the upside translate?

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You're still adding a player in his prime, and he won't need much adjustment time if any. Any numbers you hear right now are wild speculation, but would you rather spend $6m a year on Gregg, or $6m a year on a CF with a very advanced bat?

I really don't think those sentiments are defensible. He's certainly an intriguing option, but part of that is due to the fact that he could easily far-exceed OR underperform the millions he's sure to get this winter. Also, bad money already spent on Gregg is completely irrelevant to assessing how one should spend another, entirely independent $6 million. Now...if it were possible to turn back the clock and give Gregg's money to Cespedes, of course I'd do that, but the question doesn't really have much worth given that Gregg's money is already down the garbage chute.

At any rate, the reason I brought up Cespedes' age is because it seems as though he's got less margin for error than someone like Chapman (who was...what, 22 when he came over?). In other words, though Chapman got a lot of money, he also had more time to grow into it. Cespedes, on the other hand, will basically have to establish himself right away.

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If folks think he needs refinement in the minors, he won't get that kind of cash. My guess is that folks think he has immediate MLB value right now, the only question is, how does the upside translate?

From what I've heard I'd start him in the ML and be ok, but there is talk he might need a month or two in AAA just to get used to playing over here first. No physical growth coming, what you see is what you get, not sure on the actual speed numbers, but it's got to be decent if he's out in CF for Cuba. Never know on the age thing, but if he's 26, he's got Granderson/Beltran upside, and Adam Jones downside.

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From what I've heard I'd start him in the ML and be ok, but there is talk he might need a month or two in AAA just to get used to playing over here first. No physical growth coming, what you see is what you get, not sure on the actual speed numbers, but it's got to be decent if he's out in CF for Cuba. Never know on the age thing, but if he's 26, he's got Granderson/Beltran upside, and Adam Jones downside.

I think his downside might be more Oddibe McDowell than Adam Jones.

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I really don't think those sentiments are defensible. He's certainly an intriguing option, but part of that is due to the fact that he could easily far-exceed OR underperform the millions he's sure to get this winter. Also, bad money already spent on Gregg is completely irrelevant to assessing how one should spend another, entirely independent $6 million. Now...if it were possible to turn back the clock and give Gregg's money to Cespedes, of course I'd do that, but the question doesn't really have much worth given that Gregg's money is already down the garbage chute.

At any rate, the reason I brought up Cespedes' age is because it seems as though he's got less margin for error than someone like Chapman (who was...what, 22 when he came over?). In other words, though Chapman got a lot of money, he also had more time to grow into it. Cespedes, on the other hand, will basically have to establish himself right away.

You aren't talking about DR player, you are talking about a Cuban. Whole different world as far as raw ability/refinement. He's more polished than any of the IFA you are probably comparing him to. Chapman was a young pitcher who threw really hard and had potential for secondaries, BIG difference between him and Cespedes as a polished hitter.

The Gregg money thing wasn't meant as his specifically, but if not on him they will just spend $6m on someone else middling for no reason. Would Vlad have been a better example? They are going to spend that $6m somewhere, who knows where, but I do know taking a chance on a polished CF with good bat tools is worth a risk when you are a team with little minor league talent and looking for somewhere else to hit.

Basically, do you want to play it safe again and watch FLA or CHW sign this guy and him make a couple all-star teams? Or would you rather risk that it could be a bad signing and take the chance you get your own all-star for a couple years? At some point you have to do something different, and playing it safe has got us 14 straight losing seasons. As has been said..."it can't get any worse".

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I think his downside might be more Oddibe McDowell than Adam Jones.

Well, that might be true, but if I'm trusting the reports I'm reading/hearing I'd say Jones is a safe side comp. It's just a matter of how much you trust those scouts, or your scouts if they agree.

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You aren't talking about DR player, you are talking about a Cuban. Whole different world as far as raw ability/refinement. He's more polished than any of the IFA you are probably comparing him to. Chapman was a young pitcher who threw really hard and had potential for secondaries, BIG difference between him and Cespedes as a polished hitter.

The Gregg money thing wasn't meant as his specifically, but if not on him they will just spend $6m on someone else middling for no reason. Would Vlad have been a better example? They are going to spend that $6m somewhere, who knows where, but I do know taking a chance on a polished CF with good bat tools is worth a risk when you are a team with little minor league talent and looking for somewhere else to hit.

Basically, do you want to play it safe again and watch FLA or CHW sign this guy and him make a couple all-star teams? Or would you rather risk that it could be a bad signing and take the chance you get your own all-star for a couple years? At some point you have to do something different, and playing it safe has got us 14 straight losing seasons. As has been said..."it can't get any worse".

Like I said, if he is the plus-fielder in CF he's made out to be, then there isn't really that much risk. He only needs to be worth about 1.5-2.0 WAR a year in order to be worth the proposed contracts, no?

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Well, that might be true, but if I'm trusting the reports I'm reading/hearing I'd say Jones is a safe side comp. It's just a matter of how much you trust those scouts, or your scouts if they agree.

Oddibe McDowell was pretty good for a couple of years. I would guess that Jones's production is probably his 60% comp and Beltran his 90% comp. McDowell his 50% comp. And...say...Lastings Milledge is his downside. :)

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Oddibe McDowell was pretty good for a couple of years. I would guess that Jones's production is probably his 60% comp and Beltran his 90% comp. McDowell his 50% comp. And...say...Lastings Milledge is his downside. :)

Haha, ok yeah, sounds fair.

Does that make Elijah Dukes his 30% comp?

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