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Cubs after Roberts

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I don't know.

I DON'T HAVE A CRYSTAL BALL.

But, I do know that Roberts right NOW is a very good (all star) 2nd baseman, led the league in SB's, good leadoff man, good defensively, etc...

Roberts is a proven, allstar commodity. That alone makes him worth more than Murton and Gallagher.

Come on now really any reasonable person would say a 26 year old is most likely to improve while a 30 year old likely to decline.

I would like one more prospect from the cubs but those to are a very solid base offer from an objective persons veiwpoint. imo of course

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Davearm, I am very interested in knowing your philosophy behind Pie=Roberts. I enjoy your insight, but I just don't get the logic behind a proven major league all-star being equal to a prospect with an unproven, but high ceiling.

If I were a Cubs fan and had seen my team spend a fortune in the last offseason for free agents, sign Zambrano to an extension and hadn't won a World Series since Abe Lincoln was president, I would be wanting to go for it at any cost, especially if the cost was as unproven as Pie. If the O's sat back and didn't make a move for an all-star in a needed position for an unproven prospect when they were in a position to win what matters (the World Series) I would be extremely upset. Just my opinion.

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Come on now really any reasonable person would say a 26 year old is most likely to improve while a 30 year old likely to decline.

I would like one more prospect from the cubs but those to are a very solid base offer from an objective persons veiwpoint. imo of course

Here's my question, how much better, if any, does Murton project to be than Nolan Reimold? If not much, or any.. then what's the point? I'm sure we could fill the 3/4/5 or whatever slot of Gallagher with someone else soon enough.

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I like Nolan alot but hes not ready and injury prone I dont know how you can count on him until he can put together a full season

I can kind of see the injury thing, but what does being ready matter if we're not going to compete till at least 2009-2010? Even if he's a slightly bigger question mark than Murton, I'd rather take my chances with Roberts and Reimold than ____ and Murton.

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Come on now really any reasonable person would say a 26 year old is most likely to improve while a 30 year old likely to decline.

I would like one more prospect from the cubs but those to are a very solid base offer from an objective persons veiwpoint. imo of course

So ? :confused:

But, what does that have to do with the specific players in question ?

Do all 26 yr olds improve ?

Do all 30 yr olds decline ?

Why then did Murton decline as a 25 yr old ?

Why did Roberts improve as a 29 yr old ?

Roberts had the 2nd best year of his career.

Murton had the worst year of his career. His best was his first, his worst was his third.

Wouldn't reasonable people conclude that the trend for this 26 yr old would be unfavorable ? And the trend for this 30 yr old to be favorable or at the least - inconclusive ?

Edit: I agree with the last part. If Cedeno is included I may be inclined to hold my nose and pull the trigger. Cedeno, Murton, Gallagher is a fair trade. I would rather go for a potential difference maker (Pie). I dont see any of these guys as difference makers.

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Maybe he will perform better with a full time job i seem to remeber Roberts being a horrible player when he shared time..

Wow roberts 2nd best pretty comparable to Murtons worst

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The point can't be simplified to declines and improvements - even if we knew for sure Roberts would decline next year and Murton improve, I wouldn't trade Roberts for Murton straight up (I know that's not what's being argued but it serves a point). Roberts may have less value to US, but even a slightly worse Roberts is still an All-Star 2B and as such has enormous value to a contender.

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The point can't be simplified to declines and improvements - even if we knew for sure Roberts would decline next year and Murton improve, I wouldn't trade Roberts for Murton straight up (I know that's not what's being argued but it serves a point). Roberts may have less value to US, but even a slightly worse Roberts is still an All-Star 2B and as such has enormous value to a contender.

Right and thats why bi want Murton, Gallegher and another prospect that way if Murton doesnt improve we have a huge upgrade in left and still have promsing arms for the rotation

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I don't have any specific thoughts about exactly what is a fair value for Roberts. I did want to comment that OPS is not a good stat to use to measure Roberts' value, because it disregards the value of the SB's, and undervalues the high OBP he produces. Just to give a few other measures:

RC/27: 6.55, 3rd among MLB 2B

WARP3: 9.5

RARP: 41.3, 2nd among MLB 2B

VORP: 48.6, 3rd among MLB 2B

Adj. EQA: .300

Win Shares: 21, 2nd among MLB 2B

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Your completely right it was just a quick way to make the point Murton and Roberts are not that far apart and that him and a top 5 prospect are a very good starting point

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I don't have any specific thoughts about exactly what is a fair value for Roberts. I did want to comment that OPS is not a good stat to use to measure Roberts' value, because it disregards the value of the SB's, and undervalues the high OBP he produces. Just to give a few other measures:

RC/27: 6.55, 3rd among MLB 2B

WARP3: 9.5

RARP: 41.3, 2nd among MLB 2B

VORP: 48.6, 3rd among MLB 2B

Adj. EQA: .300

Win Shares: 21, 2nd among MLB 2B

Roberts is coming off of a real strong year, no doubt.

It seems worth noting, however, that his career EQA (.279) is basically identical to Murton's (.280).

Age tilts things one way, position tilts it back, and $$$/years to FA tilts it yet again.

I've long said that Murton would be a great guy to get ahold of and just let him get his 600 PAs out in LF and do his thing. It'd be great if he got that chance with the O's. My guess is that you guys would be real happy with the results.

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It seems worth noting, however, that his career EQA (.279) is basically identical to Murton's (.280).
Half of that statistic consist of the first four seasons of Brian Roberts career, where he wasn't a very good or productive hitter. You can brush that off as a copout if you want, but the strides Roberts has made the past three years definitely outweigh those years where he looked like he wasn't going to be that solid or interesting of a baseball player. I'm sure I'm not the only one to be pretty surprised at how intelligent and skilled Roberts has become both at the plate and in the field. Teams are trading for what he has become, not what he was.

Unless there's some extremely critical bit of information I've missed about Murton that would change my opinion of him, I don't really see what's all that intriguing about the guy. Doesn't exactly have mind-blowing minor league numbers, and, apart from his rookie season, his major league numbers aren't really that impressive either. Is he one of those tools guys, or is he a great fielder? I just don't see it from the numbers. Looks like a right handed outfielder version of Scott Moore.

If other general managers can walk out of their house and stumble over players like Lastings Milledge, without losing ANYTHING of interest, I'm pretty sure we can do a whole lot better than a package largely centered around Matt Murton for a two time all-star who plays one of the hardest positions to fill. I'm obviously not saying Pie, but it would really have to be something pretty interesting with something like Murton being the throw-in to finish it off.

Although, when it really comes down to it, I don't really see why the Cubs and Orioles would want to trade with each other anyway. As good as Roberts is, DeRosa is a pretty good second baseman. I think Orioles could never really obtain market value for Roberts from the Cubs because their need for a second baseman just isn't that great. There are other teams with no fallback second base solution that would be a lot more eager to pull a trade off for an all-star second baseman.

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Roberts is coming off of a real strong year, no doubt.

It seems worth noting, however, that his career EQA (.279) is basically identical to Murton's (.280).

Age tilts things one way, position tilts it back, and $$$/years to FA tilts it yet again.

I've long said that Murton would be a great guy to get ahold of and just let him get his 600 PAs out in LF and do his thing. It'd be great if he got that chance with the O's. My guess is that you guys would be real happy with the results.

As GFrank put so well, in other words, it's really not worth noting.

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