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Cubs after Roberts

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You'd take away the SB because below a certain success rate, you're actually hurting the team by attempting them.

Conventional wisdom is that the breakeven line is around 75%.

For his career, Roberts is clearly in the green at around 80%. The concern would be whether that will continue into his 30s.

I think its a pretty safe bet that Roberts will continue to be a good base stealer. His main asset for stealing bases isn't speed as much as it is reading pitchers and getting unbelievably good jumps. Even if he loses a step, I still think he'll be a very efficient basestealer.

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Not sure why you'd take away the stolen bases, but this is as well thought out and articulated a first post as I've seen in awhile around here.

That said, like most O's fans, I wouldn't trade Roberts without getting back Pie. He's as good a leadoff hitter and defensive second baseman as you're going to find. Put him at the top of a reasonable lineup and he's even more valuable.

While we are at it, i guess we should take away the solid defense, the high OBP, the great eye at the plate and the 40-50 doubles.

Plus the intangibles he has.

Once you take all of that away, he isn't much better than Cedeno! :rolleyes:

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Gallagher, Murton and Cedeno may be a fair return for Roberts, but that doesn't mean it's a trade the O's should make.

The point of any of these trades should be getting young players with star potential. Murton isn't that young, and he's a decent player but there is zero chance he becomes a star. Gallagher is young and his minor league numbers are nice, but the scouts say his ceiling is a 3/4 and I have no reason to think they are wrong. Cedeno = Erick Aybar at this point; at best he'd be an adequate SS, and perhaps not even that.

Trading one great player for three guys who are likely to be decent but not stars is not a way to build a championship caliber team.

Roberts, Tejada and Bedard all need to be traded but we need to get at least one potential impact player back in each trade (and more than one for Bedard).

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While we are at it, i guess we should take away the solid defense, the high OBP, the great eye at the plate and the 40-50 doubles.

Plus the intangibles he has.

Once you take all of that away, he isn't much better than Cedeno! :rolleyes:

I think you can take away the solid defense. At least as a plus, he's really not much better than an average defender.

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While we are at it, i guess we should take away the solid defense, the high OBP, the great eye at the plate and the 40-50 doubles.

Plus the intangibles he has.

Once you take all of that away, he isn't much better than Cedeno! :rolleyes:

And don't forget to add in assumed success for Murton as an everyday player.

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And don't forget to add in assumed success for Murton as an everyday player.

That is true...We should actually be throwing in someone for Murton....Would Bedard and BRob for Murton be asking too much?

I mean, if you take away the peripheral numbers, his W/L record isn't that great for his career...So, maybe BEdard is overrated too?

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That is true...We should actually be throwing in someone for Murton....Would Bedard and BRob for Murton be asking too much?

I mean, if you take away the peripheral numbers, his W/L record isn't that great for his career...So, maybe BEdard is overrated too?

Well, Bedard has been under 200 IP 2 years in a row, so we can assume that his arm will more than likely snap. So, you take away the peripherals, add in the assumed arm-snapping, and he's virtually worthless.

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That is true...We should actually be throwing in someone for Murton....Would Bedard and BRob for Murton be asking too much?

I mean, if you take away the peripheral numbers, his W/L record isn't that great for his career...So, maybe BEdard is overrated too?

Don't forget the injuries. We'd probably have to give them Liz to make them take Bedard and Roberts for Murton.

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Gallagher's minor league development is complete. He goes straight into the O's rotation.

That's what was said about Penn when he had just as good of a year in AAA at the same age.

I do think that Gallagher is someone we should be targeting, though.

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Considering that he is coming off his best year (50 SB's and 88% success rate) it isn't out of the realm of possiblity that it continues for the next year or two, is it ?

And you stated earlier that you are only concerned with the next two years that he is under contract for.

I'm not concerned about it personally.

Just giving you how the argument would go for someone who was.

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I think its a pretty safe bet that Roberts will continue to be a good base stealer. His main asset for stealing bases isn't speed as much as it is reading pitchers and getting unbelievably good jumps. Even if he loses a step, I still think he'll be a very efficient basestealer.

I was going to post something similar. Roberts doesn't really have blazing speed, but he's very smart.

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I think you can take away the solid defense. At least as a plus, he's really not much better than an average defender.

The Fielding Bible ranks BRob 10 among MLB 2B. That would put hm well above average by my math.

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The point of any of these trades should be getting young players with star potential.

I disagree.

When a team has this many holes, you don't put off filling them until you can fill them all with stars-in-the-making. Because you probably won't fill any of them, if that's the standard you set.

This team went 69-93 this year, is loaded with overpaid and declining veterans, and has had a sub-par farm system for at least the last 10 years. There is no realistic future in which we look at a box score in June 09 and find an Orioles' lineup studded with stars. It isn't going to happen.

What is a realistic future is looking at that box score and seeing a team without significant deficiencies, with talent in the pipeline and still improving. That's what we should be aiming for.

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The 18 HR's was a fluke, mostly driven by one insane month, April, where he hit 8 HR's. His next highest monthly total in his career is 4, which he only has attained twice, neither of which was in 2005, BTW.

I feel the "real" BRob you will see for the next 3-4 years is basically the 2006 version on the low end and the 2007 version on the high end. 2005 isn't going to happen again, but neither is 2001-04.

Yup and the real Brob isnt much better than Iguhci(sp.)

If you can sign him for less than Roberts is owed and get back the MUrton Package i see our lineup way better with fewer holes and another great arm for the rotation

Taking into account the cost and the holes we fill I dont

see how you can not like the deal and maybe the cubs throw us another arm

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