Good assessment. I think we’re getting close enough to where we keep Mullins. However, we’re not going to win until we have a SP and some depth behind that SP.
We have Means, GR, Hall for 2023. Maybe Lyles if he pitches well, or if at least 1 emerges from our current group other than Means and Lyles. I just don’t see how we compete in 2023 otherwise.
Unless we really get blown away by an offer I think we wait and see what our SP looks like at the end of the year. Maybe $15mm per year SP next year.
I don’t know what he’s going to sign for in Japan but we gave him $1.5 million last year. I’m sure if we offered him that same deal then he would’ve stayed here. It depends on what the Japanese team gave him.
Here are some key monthly splits.
March/April (12-14 record): 3.62 R/G (14th), .224/.282/.366 (14th in OPS), 0.96 HR/G (13th), .211/.291/.303 with RISP.
May (5-23): 3.86 R/G (13th), .234/.307/.397 (8th), 1.07 HR/G (10th), .219/.311/.317 with RISP
June (10-17): 4.85 R/G (8th), .255/.317/.420 (9th), 1.37 HR/G (9th), .288/.337/.446 with RISP
July (10-12): 4.41 R/G (9th), .232/.303/.400 (10th), 1.23 HR/G (10th), .231/.309/.329 with RISP
August (4-24): 3.86 R/G (14th), .250/.302/.432 (9th), 1.39 HR/G (6th), .214/.291/.303 with RISP
Sept./Oct. (11-20): 3.90 R/G (14th), .237/.308/.391 (12th), 1.19 HR/G (7th), .225/.314/.398 with RISP
March/April (12-14): 4.01 ERA (8th), 5.00 starters (14th), 4.85 IP/S (11th), 2.81 relievers (5th), 7 of 12 saves
May (5-23): 5.89 ERA (15th), 5.69 starters (15th), 4.63 IP/S (15th), 6.13 relievers (15th), 2 of 8 saves
June (10-17): 6.38 ERA (15th), 7.42 starters (15th), 4.22 IP/S (15th), 5.40 relievers (14th), 6 of 8 saves
July (10-12): 5.35 ERA (15th), 5.67 starters (12th), 4.62 IP/S (15th), 5.01 relievers (11th), 3 of 5 saves
August (4-24): 7.43 ERA (15th), 7.20 starters (15th), 4.60 IP/S (13th), 7.69 relievers (15th), 1 of 4 saves
Sept./Oct. (11-20): 5.84 ERA (15th), 5.05 starters (12th), 4.37 IP/S (12th), 6.63 relievers (15th), 7 of 17 saves
I’ve bolded a few things that really stood out to me. On offense, we had four of six moths where we were absolutely terrible with RISP. For context, the league average slash line with RISP was .255/.333/.422. In particular, look at the slugging percentages with RISP in the four feeble months: .303, .317, .329, and .303. Just goes to show how empty most of our homers were.
As to pitching, the starters and bullpen were both very respectable in March/April and gave us false hopes for a fun summer. They were both terrible thereafter, and I think an under-discussed aspect was how bad the bullpen was, not just in ERA but bottom line results in failing to preserve leads, especially over the last two months of the year. If you want to see a significant improvement in the team’s record next year, a halfway respectable performance by the bullpen would go a surprisingly long way.
A better order
Better bring in a haul - Mullins, Hays, Means
Some To little value; could gain much more value w/ good start to 2022 - Santander, Mancini, Sulser, Scott, Tate, Lyles
Currently no value, but bc of age, service time, and/or potential to reach peak value, IF they were to perform WOULD have trade value - Fry, Lopez, Odor, Stewart