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bigbird

And still no mionor league free agents.

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I don't know who you are, or how much you really know. But if I imagine that you are legit, that's a stout post right there.

Here's my question to everybody else: I know lots of people here keep up with the MiL guys way more than I do. Do you agree with this post? If you don't, how wrong do you think it is?

I totally disagree with this. Our upper level position players are not good. Just take a look at the OH Top 30 prospects. Only 3 players have any experience above A+ ball. Reimold, Moore, and Hernandez. As Drungo mentioned earlier AAA Norfolk will really stink with the current projected talent. I can't even tell you who is the starting 1B or Catcher there.

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Bigbird,

I will definitely put up my 2008 projections up if someone will let me know how to attach it. I am not ashamed of it but quite proud.

Last I checked AM has not been the GM when we have drafted anyone on the O’s so our lack of depth can not be blamed on him.

You question is a trick question. Norfolk and Bowie are weak in position players because we emphasized pitchers under Flanagan/Beattie/Duquette/DeMacio and you know that.

Why did you not ask what pitchers can fill in at the majors because you know we did better drafting them in 2002-2006? You know we have Liz, Johnson, Penn, Olson, and others close to ready. No amount of retread minor league free agents like Knott/House/DuBois are going to make up for the poor or lack of adequate drafting of position players from 2000-2004 that have left Norfolk and Bowie void of prospects. Not until Jordan in 2005 was hired did we put any emphasis on position players so they are all in Frederick or lower except Reimold/Paco. To further make my point, Jordon emphasized high school players in 2005-2006 so they take a bit longer to make the bigs and populate AA/AAA but all look to be studs.

One of my theories as to why we have been so bad at the major league levels even with some good players is because our lack of depth has been so poor in AAA/AA for over a decade that we can never recover when one of our studs in the majors goes down. That lack of drafting/development means that once we lose a guy like Tejada we bring up Fahey. Not even close to the same player. BY 2009, a guy like Tejada will be replaced by Henson, Mora with Rowell, Gibbons with Reimold, Ramon with Wieters, Millar with Snyder. See my point. Your argument is weak against not only AM, but weak with your boy Duquette, weak with even Flanagan/Beattie.

Our problems today can be traced all the way back to Thrift/Buford and their drafting and mostly their horrendous player development. How many pitchers went under the knife while they were running the show. I remember Bedard and just about every good pitcher we had one year had Tommy John because of the lack of any player development plan under Buford. I remember trainers in 2002 all over the minors quitting because Thrift muzzled them because all our players were getting hurt and he was trying to cover it up.

You friend at the O’s could probably back me up because if I am right I believe it has been mentioned by others on the board in the past that he works in our player development office. He should be able to tell us much better than AM why we still have no prospects at AA/AAA since last I checked he has worked at the O’s much longer than AM.

Sorry to be a jerk because I love your posts and info but you always get pissed when someone questions you and go after that person. Learn to respect someone else’s opinion. This is why I do not like to post.

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I thought I was the only one insane enough to keep a spreadsheet :)

I'd enjoy comparing formats if anyone would like to exchange 'em.

Sonny76,

I would love to compare spreadsheets with you just not sure how to get it to you. I am not a big message board guy. Not sure what PM means when these guys say it. I read the board a lot but rarely post.

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Bigbird,

I will definitely put up my 2008 projections up if someone will let me know how to attach it. I am not ashamed of it but quite proud.

Last I checked AM has not been the GM when we have drafted anyone on the O’s so our lack of depth can not be blamed on him.

You question is a trick question. Norfolk and Bowie are weak in position players because we emphasized pitchers under Flanagan/Beattie/Duquette/DeMacio and you know that.

Why did you not ask what pitchers can fill in at the majors because you know we did better drafting them in 2002-2006? You know we have Liz, Johnson, Penn, Olson, and others close to ready. No amount of retread minor league free agents like Knott/House/DuBois are going to make up for the poor or lack of adequate drafting of position players from 2000-2004 that have left Norfolk and Bowie void of prospects. Not until Jordan in 2005 was hired did we put any emphasis on position players so they are all in Frederick or lower except Reimold/Paco. To further make my point, Jordon emphasized high school players in 2005-2006 so they take a bit longer to make the bigs and populate AA/AAA but all look to be studs.

One of my theories as to why we have been so bad at the major league levels even with some good players is because our lack of depth has been so poor in AAA/AA for over a decade that we can never recover when one of our studs in the majors goes down. That lack of drafting/development means that once we lose a guy like Tejada we bring up Fahey. Not even close to the same player. BY 2009, a guy like Tejada will be replaced by Henson, Mora with Rowell, Gibbons with Reimold, Ramon with Wieters, Millar with Snyder. See my point. Your argument is weak against not only AM, but weak with your boy Duquette, weak with even Flanagan/Beattie.

Our problems today can be traced all the way back to Thrift/Buford and their drafting and mostly their horrendous player development. How many pitchers went under the knife while they were running the show. I remember Bedard and just about every good pitcher we had one year had Tommy John because of the lack of any player development plan under Buford. I remember trainers in 2002 all over the minors quitting because Thrift muzzled them because all our players were getting hurt and he was trying to cover it up.

You friend at the O’s could probably back me up because if I am right I believe it has been mentioned by others on the board in the past that he works in our player development office. He should be able to tell us much better than AM why we still have no prospects at AA/AAA since last I checked he has worked at the O’s much longer than AM.

Sorry to be a jerk because I love your posts and info but you always get pissed when someone questions you and go after that person. Learn to respect someone else’s opinion. This is why I do not like to post.

Well, damn.

Did he just say anything that's wrong?

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Well, damn.

Did he just say anything that's wrong?

I agree with what he says, but doesn't that make it all the more important to pick up the minor league free agents that slip through the cracks and give them a legitimate chance rather than using the Faheys and Luis Hernandez's of the world?

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I would like to get some quality AAA filler for Norfolk, but I believe we'll need fewer minor league free agents than in the past.

DelMarva and Frederick should be almost entirely Jordan draft picks and the Bowie rotation needs no help.

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I agree with what he says, but doesn't that make it all the more important to pick up the minor league free agents that slip through the cracks and give them a legitimate chance rather than using the Faheys and Luis Hernandez's of the world?

Square634,

Thanks for your support but truthfully is their enough retreads out there to make a difference when we lose a Tejada, Brob, Markakis, Bedard to injury or all our pitchers like last year. Did Rob Bell saves us last year when Loewen got hurt? Was Knott really going to give us the same production as CPAT defensively and on the bases if he replaced him. Knott could hit 100 HR but he is stiff in the field and hurts us in the outfield and further exposes our weak bullpen with his lack of range in the field something no one talks about when discussing him. Their is a reason teams have given up on him and other minor league free agents. I would bet 1in 100 of every minor league position player free agents turns out to be an even average major leaguer or fill-in for injuries. Relievers are your best bets as retreads (i.e. Byrdk). It is not as easy as some people make it sound to finds lightning in a bottle. We have enough developing options for the first time in a long time that we do not need to sign 25-30 retreads. Last year we had no choice and it was the right move because our best players were three levels away at Delmarva. This year a guy like Wieters could be sitting in AA if Ramon goes down. I would rather take my chances with a not quite ready Reimold or some other minor leaguer than going with these guys. How many Pickerings, Jiminez's, Minor's, House's, etc. have we drooled over and argued over because the O’s let them go only so they can move on get a chance somewhere else and eventually falter and be let go again by another team for the same reason we let them go. My point is we will not be any better until Rowell, Reimold, Liz,Wieters, Snyder, Olson, Spoone are the guys in AA/AAA ready to contribute when we lose one our studs in the majors. They are legit future major leaguers. 95% of minor league FA's have flaws or have had injuries that have limited their previous ability (House) which is why they are let go. Say we hit on one this year is that really going to make us an 80 win team. My point is there are not enough fill-ins to make up for our poor drafting and development from 2000-2004 with the exception of Markakis, Ray and Loewen. We just have to wait until some off these younger guys make the upper minors and provide relief in the majors when we have an injury. We have no depth in AA/AAA that is why we suck. That is not AM’s fault as bigbird suggest. Duquette his hero is more at fault than AM. But truthfully he is not at fault either. It all goes back to Batman (Thrift) and Robin (Buford).

Sorry for the lengthy responses but this topic gets under my skin because the logic is flawed.

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Did Rob Bell saves us last year when Loewen got hurt?

Rob Bell is a terrible retread with no statistics that indicated he would ever be good. There is a difference between that and someone who has done well in the minors but has never been given a chance.

Was Knott really going to give us the same production as CPAT defensively and on the bases if he replaced him. Knott could hit 100 HR but he is stiff in the field and hurts us in the outfield and further exposes our weak bullpen with his lack of range in the field something no one talks about when discussing him. Their is a reason teams have given up on him and other minor league free agents. I would bet 1in 100 of every minor league position player free agents turns out to be an even average major leaguer or fill-in for injuries.

Knott isn't a center fielder, so I don't get that argument. Also, it's not like Jay Payton or Jay Gibbons were gold glove defenders either. Even if they were, the difference in Knott's bat probably would have made up the difference. And even if Knott were really that terrible in the field, you could put him at DH.

Is the reason teams have given up on him the same reason as teams had given up on Jack Cust? Even if teams did have a legitimate reason (other than the flawed assumption that if some other team didn't want him, why should I?) he was still better than what we put out there. And if we go with your 1/100 argument, that 1/100 is still better than the 0/100 chance that Fahey or L. Hernandez was going to be an average fill in player.

Last year we had no choice and it was the right move because our best players were three levels away at Delmarva.

It would have been the right move, if we had actually used those players.

This year a guy like Wieters could be sitting in AA if Ramon goes down. I would rather take my chances with a not quite ready Reimold or some other minor leaguer than going with these guys.

If we have those prospects, then it is a viable option, but last year we didn't, and among all of the available players, we picked the ones with zero upside instead of the ones with at worst an outside chance at having a good upside. Also you have to keep in mind that calling up a prospect when he is not ready starts his service clock and makes him a free agent sooner even when he isn't producing.

I agree with your general premise that it is always better to have prospects to fill in, but it is almost never going to be the case when you can fill in every single hole. Maybe minor league free agents won't carry a team, but every win counts, and these guys can make at least a slight difference compared to the Faheys of the world.

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Just a thought.... Maybe they have signed some minor league depth but haven't announced it yet? I was given that indication before the winter meetings. I believe we'll see the announcement some time next week since Bill Stetka is just getting back from the winter meetings.

At the same time, the O's are going to give their own guys a chance to sink or swim in the system this year. I think we'll see some signings for Norfolk but let's not forget, some decent depth will be available after spring training when guys are cut and choose free agency rather than going to the team's Triple-A club.

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Bigbird,

I will definitely put up my 2008 projections up if someone will let me know how to attach it. I am not ashamed of it but quite proud.

Last I checked AM has not been the GM when we have drafted anyone on the O’s so our lack of depth can not be blamed on him.

You question is a trick question. Norfolk and Bowie are weak in position players because we emphasized pitchers under Flanagan/Beattie/Duquette/DeMacio and you know that.

Why did you not ask what pitchers can fill in at the majors because you know we did better drafting them in 2002-2006? You know we have Liz, Johnson, Penn, Olson, and others close to ready. No amount of retread minor league free agents like Knott/House/DuBois are going to make up for the poor or lack of adequate drafting of position players from 2000-2004 that have left Norfolk and Bowie void of prospects. Not until Jordan in 2005 was hired did we put any emphasis on position players so they are all in Frederick or lower except Reimold/Paco. To further make my point, Jordon emphasized high school players in 2005-2006 so they take a bit longer to make the bigs and populate AA/AAA but all look to be studs.

One of my theories as to why we have been so bad at the major league levels even with some good players is because our lack of depth has been so poor in AAA/AA for over a decade that we can never recover when one of our studs in the majors goes down. That lack of drafting/development means that once we lose a guy like Tejada we bring up Fahey. Not even close to the same player. BY 2009, a guy like Tejada will be replaced by Henson, Mora with Rowell, Gibbons with Reimold, Ramon with Wieters, Millar with Snyder. See my point. Your argument is weak against not only AM, but weak with your boy Duquette, weak with even Flanagan/Beattie.

Our problems today can be traced all the way back to Thrift/Buford and their drafting and mostly their horrendous player development. How many pitchers went under the knife while they were running the show. I remember Bedard and just about every good pitcher we had one year had Tommy John because of the lack of any player development plan under Buford. I remember trainers in 2002 all over the minors quitting because Thrift muzzled them because all our players were getting hurt and he was trying to cover it up.

You friend at the O’s could probably back me up because if I am right I believe it has been mentioned by others on the board in the past that he works in our player development office. He should be able to tell us much better than AM why we still have no prospects at AA/AAA since last I checked he has worked at the O’s much longer than AM.

Sorry to be a jerk because I love your posts and info but you always get pissed when someone questions you and go after that person. Learn to respect someone else’s opinion. This is why I do not like to post.

Can't you just admit that we have no position quality in the upper levels to help in Baltimore? Even the pitting for the most part has been either rushed or

very unproductive when called upon. Forget where the problem started. Everyone knows Thrift was horrible.

It's MacPhails problem to fix it and you don;t do that by promoting a mass of players where they;re in over their heads or rely on the likes of Elder Torres or

Majewski to provide support to the major league levels.

Just email your spread sheets to Tony, John, Drungo or Scottie and I'm sure they'll post it.

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And even if Knott were really that terrible in the field, you could put him at DH.

Except that Knott hit like a reserve middle infielder at AAA the first half of the season.

Some would argue that they should overlook a temporary slump, but I don't think it's the key. Here's why:

He spent his entire career in the SD organization. The Orioles went out and got him. He was going (a) to a new organization and (b) the AL, where he could DH and hide his liabilities.

Stats over a whole season or a whole career are important, but it is also important to show people that you can perform in specific situations or when you get your chance.

If the bases are loaded in the top of the ninth in a tie game in Yankee Stadium in late September, it's time to perform NOW. Nobody cares that you hit a 3-run home run in a 10-0 game in KC in April off a mop-up reliever.

Likewise, on the verge of turning 28, he got probably his last big chance to show he belonged.

But instead of seizing his opportunity and forcing the team's hand, he flopped.

All of us, but professional athletes in particular, have to step up and perform when their chance comes. He didn't.

Is the reason teams have given up on him the same reason as teams had given up on Jack Cust? Even if teams did have a legitimate reason (other than the flawed assumption that if some other team didn't want him, why should I?)

He'd only played in the SD organization before Baltimore, and Baltimore went out and got him, so the flawed assumption isn't applicable here.

One thing people forget about Cust is that not only was he a bad fielder, but Mike Hargrove--a man whose whole career was built on being selective (he played first and hit leadoff)--thought Cust was being TOO selective.

If Mr. OBP thinks you take too many pitches, he's probably right.

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Can't you just admit that we have no position quality in the upper levels to help in Baltimore? Even the pitting for the most part has been either rushed or

very unproductive when called upon. Forget where the problem started. Everyone knows Thrift was horrible.

It's MacPhails problem to fix it and you don;t do that by promoting a mass of players where they;re in over their heads or rely on the likes of Elder Torres or

Majewski to provide support to the major league levels.

Just email your spread sheets to Tony, John, Drungo or Scottie and I'm sure they'll post it.

Bigbird,

We have very little position player talent in the upper minors. If that is your argument then you are dead on and my responses basically admit it if you read them carefully. Finan will probably be at Bowie does that mean he can help the parent club if someone gets hurt. Not sure but he deserves a chance over some retread minor leaguer 3B. I would rather give Fleisher a chance at 1B in Bowie than someone like Jiminez who is clearly not in our plans at all. I appreciate the debate. Bottom line I am excited because our minor league depth is much improved. Not perfect but much better since Jordan took over.

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No there aren't. The only reason they got House, Dubois, Knott, and a few other quality players last year was that they reacted quickly, had things set up early in the off-season, and sealed the deals.This year we're in mid-December and most, if not all, of the House-type players have long since gone elsewhere.

I'd be surprised if Norfolk's and Bowie's rosters didn't look like it was 2004 all over again (hello Alejandro Freire and Luis Lopez!), barring some trades that add AA or AAA level talents.

Not to throw a monkey wrench in this argument, but House signed with us on 1/5/07 and Knott signed 12/22/06 according to baseball-reference.com. (They didn't list a date for Dubois.) Leicester signed 1/5/07 and Shuey 2/2/07. Certainly other free agents were signed before this time last year, but a lot weren't. I think it is too early to say we are too late.

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But instead of seizing his opportunity and forcing the team's hand, he flopped.

All of us, but professional athletes in particular, have to step up and perform when their chance comes. He didn't.

Actually, IIRC he was called up, immediately hit a 3-run home run against TB to tie the game, and was sent back down two days later. He had a .368 OBP in Baltimore and a .797 OPS. That was probably in the top five on the team and miles ahead of who we were putting out there. You can't really blame Knott for failing to perform in Yankee Stadium in September when he wasn't given the chance. Also keep in mind that Norfolk is an extreme pitcher's park, which would help explain why his numbers decreased in AAA last year. And if Knott "flopped" I guess that means Fahey and Luis Hernandez were lifeless corpses.

And don't even get me started on House vs. Bako. I can't even imagine how someone could rationalize these moves.

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I have a problem with things not getting done. That goes for MacPhail, my employees, my kids and even myself. If you have a list of 10 things to do you can't have tunnel vision and focus only on 1 or 2 of the tasks. MacPhail also painted himself into a corner by announcing he was going to hire a "right hand man". Where is he????? He could have had Duquette working with him and by the way Duquette is as equally respected in baseball circles as MacPhail is.

Things need to be done and done now.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out the next few weeks.

If there's a point to this thread this is it IMHO. Tony and Frobby both alluded to a list of MiL FA signings likely to be released now that the Rule IV draft is done. I'm surprised you haven't heard of this as well. Yes, we are weak at the AAA level but as psk170 has said, as Jordons picks move up things will improve, and why not give some of those guys the chance to sink or swim rather than going to more AAAA retreads. Those kind of guys might make more sense if we weren't rebuilding. And just for the record(I know this wasn't your point) say what you want about LH; he did a heck of a job filling in for Miggi when he went down last season.

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