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Chris Davis is a Keeper

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See, this is what is wrong with calculus professors making judgments about baseball players. Sub replacement level means neither should be on the major league roster, correct? So, we have developed statistics to prove to us that neither Reynolds or Davis belong on a major league roster? My post was a positive reaction to a man who won a game hitting a homer very few other men in the game could even think about. In one season, Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat. Now, I don't pretend to understand rWar or fWAR but I do understand someone with unusual strength. Someone who can hit a ball out of Comerica one handed to the opposite field has done something special. Someone with that kind of strength deserves patience to see if he can overcome the flaws in his game imo.

I may seem like a neanderthal but I do actually understand how obp is more important than avg. I do understand some of Bill Jame's and his disciples logic. But I also understand that big strong guys beat small weak guys. I understand that a guy who throws 97 deserves more patience than a guy who throws 90. I understand how a guy who can hit one handed home runs and broken bat home runs deserves more patience than a little guy that walks a lot.

Moneyball make scouts look like idiots and physical attributes appear unimportant. The truth lies somewhere in between imo.

Wow... I mean, just wow. I understand that you really like Davis and you're upset, but you're basically arguing that results don't matter. That if you're a big, strong guy who can occasionally hit homers then 1500 PAs in the majors isn't even close to a fair trial, even if (or maybe because) he has any number of other huge weaknesses like the inability to adequately field, or that he has a strike zone roughly the size of Wyoming. In three of the five months of 2012 he's hit under .230 with an OBP well south of the minimally acceptable .300 (sorry to bring numbers into the argument again).

CA-Oriole did a fine job of explaining why Davis' mix of skills and results has gotten him to replacement level. He does have some chance of developing beyond this, but realistically he's 26 and hasn't been a positive offensive contributor since his good debut season. So the odds are good that he's never going to be much better than this. You can wish and hope and call me a propeller-hatted Bill James loser all you want, but it doesn't change the facts that Chris Davis hasn't had a particularly good year, nor career, and he's at an age where that's probably not going to change.

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His power is just absolutely unreal. I truly believe that if he was a little more disciplined in the strike zone, he could be an Adam Dunn type of player.

Dunn has exceptional plate discipline. Davis has abysmal plate discipline. It would be somewhere between unique and exceptionally rare for someone with Davis' results to date to develop Dunn's skills or attributes. Sammy Sosa is the only player I can think of with a career anything like what you're hoping for, and he was helped to some extent by... well, let's just say a late-in-life devotion to working out.

Actually, if you want a great Davis comp, just look in the Orioles' dugout. Jim Presley was the Chris Davis of the 1980s.

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See, this is what is wrong with calculus professors making judgments about baseball players. Sub replacement level means neither should be on the major league roster, correct? So, we have developed statistics to prove to us that neither Reynolds or Davis belong on a major league roster? My post was a positive reaction to a man who won a game hitting a homer very few other men in the game could even think about. In one season, Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat. Now, I don't pretend to understand rWar or fWAR but I do understand someone with unusual strength. Someone who can hit a ball out of Comerica one handed to the opposite field has done something special. Someone with that kind of strength deserves patience to see if he can overcome the flaws in his game imo.

I may seem like a neanderthal but I do actually understand how obp is more important than avg. I do understand some of Bill Jame's and his disciples logic. But I also understand that big strong guys beat small weak guys. I understand that a guy who throws 97 deserves more patience than a guy who throws 90. I understand how a guy who can hit one handed home runs and broken bat home runs deserves more patience than a little guy that walks a lot.

Moneyball make scouts look like idiots and physical attributes appear unimportant. The truth lies somewhere in between imo.

I am not a slave to stats, I just posted them to explain the comment made by another poster. However, I also don't think you can end the analysis with "Davis has now hit a homerun with a broken bat and another homerun, to the opposite field, with one hand on the bat." We all know the guy is strong and capable of hitting 25+ homers. The issue is, what else can he do to help the team win? He doesn't field well, and he gets on base at a very low rate. That diminishes his value pretty severely.

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I don't understand why pitchers even bother throwing Davis a strike. Yesterday is an example of what Davis is... he crushes an opo HR and then strikes out in the next at bat on a pitch that was practically a pitch out. Davis has never had good plate discipline... why do you think Texas gave a guy up for Koji who was raking in the minors (even though it was the PCL league).

Now if somehow Davis could change his approach and be in more 2-1 counts instead of 1-2 counts we could have found a gem. But at this season has shown he is what he is. A guy who will hit 25 hrs and never walk.

At least when Reynolds K's he typically misses a strike and works the pitcher. :)

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I don't understand why pitchers even bother throwing Davis a strike. Yesterday is an example of what Davis is... he crushes an opo HR and then strikes out in the next at bat on a pitch that was practically a pitch out. Davis has never had good plate discipline... why do you think Texas gave a guy up for Koji who was raking in the minors (even though it was the PCL league).

Now if somehow Davis could change his approach and be in more 2-1 counts instead of 1-2 counts we could have found a gem. But at this season has shown he is what he is. A guy who will hit 25 hrs and never walk.

At least when Reynolds K's he typically misses a strike and works the pitcher. :)

An odd fact about Davis is that, even though he rarely walks, he actually sees 4.05 pitches per plate appearance, second highest on the team. But you are right, he has a very high swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone (39.3%, second worst on the team, to Adam Jones' 40.4%). It's a huge flaw in his game.

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An odd fact about Davis is that, even though he rarely walks, he actually sees 4.05 pitches per plate appearance, second highest on the team. But you are right, he has a very high swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone (39.3%, second worst on the team, to Adam Jones' 40.4%). It's a huge flaw in his game.

That is surprising...thanks for that info. I would've never dreamed he saw 4.05 pitches per at bat.

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That is surprising...thanks for that info. I would've never dreamed he saw 4.05 pitches per at bat.

Well at takes at least 3 to K so there you go.

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That is surprising...thanks for that info. I would've never dreamed he saw 4.05 pitches per at bat.

Well, it takes at least three pitches to strike out. The players with the lowest P/PA are usually guys who rarely strike out and are very good at making contact, but are impatient, like Vlad and Miggy.

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Well, it takes at least three pitches to strike out. The players with the lowest P/PA are usually guys who rarely strike out and are very good at making contact, but are impatient, like Vlad and Miggy.

I'd love to see the P/PA numbers for some old timers, back in the day when it was possible to strike out 10 or 20 times in a full season. Like these guys:

                                                                                                                                    Rk                Player SO BB Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI IBB HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS       Pos1              Edd Roush  5 17 1931  38 CIN NL 101 400 376 46 102 12  5  1      41   3         4     2 .271 .308 .338 .646        872         Stuffy McInnis  5 15 1922  31 CLE AL 142 582 537 58 164 28  7  1      78   1        27  1  5 .305 .325 .389 .715        *33            Lloyd Waner  6 16 1942  36 PHI NL 101 315 287 23  75  7  3  0      10   0     2   3     1 .261 .300 .307 .607        *84         Ernie Lombardi  6 16 1935  27 CIN NL 120 351 332 36 114 23  3 12      64   3     0  11     0 .343 .379 .539 .918        *25         Stuffy McInnis  6 15 1924  33 BSN NL 146 611 581 57 169 23  7  1      59   2        13  9  3 .291 .311 .360 .671        *36             Lave Cross  6 19 1901  35 PHA AL 100 450 424 82 139 28 12  2      73   1         6    23 .328 .358 .465 .823        *57            Don Mueller  7 15 1956  29 NYG NL 138 473 453 38 122 12  1  5  41   2   0  2  4  18  0  1 .269 .290 .333 .624        *98            Joe Schultz  7 11 1919  25 STL NL  88 246 229 24  58  9  1  2      21   0         5     4 .253 .288 .328 .615   *9/48759             Nap Lajoie  7 19 1902  27 TOT AL  87 385 352 81 133 35  5  7      65   6         8    20 .378 .419 .565 .984        *410      Sport McAllister  7 15 1901  26 DET AL  90 336 306 45  92  9  4  3      57   5        10    17 .301 .344 .386 .729   235/97611    Ossee Schrecongost  7 19 1901  26 BOS AL  86 307 280 37  85 13  5  0      38   4         4     6 .304 .356 .386 .742      *2/312         Bill Killefer  8 15 1919  31 CHC NL 103 344 315 17  90 10  2  0      22   2        13     5 .286 .322 .330 .652        *213    Ossee Schrecongost  8  9 1902  27 TOT AL  97 376 358 50 117 17  2  2      52   1         8     5 .327 .345 .402 .747     *23/814              Bob Wood  8 12 1901  35 CLE AL  98 368 346 45 101 23  3  1      49   6         4     6 .292 .327 .384 .711 *2/59643715          Charlie Deal  9 13 1921  29 CHC NL 115 454 422 52 122 19  8  3      66   0        19  3  5 .289 .310 .393 .704        *516         Willie Keeler  9 15 1907  35 NYY AL 107 467 423 50  99  5  2  0      17   3        26     7 .234 .265 .255 .521        *917            Lave Cross  9 13 1904  38 PHA AL 155 639 607 73 176 31 10  1      71   5        14    10 .290 .310 .379 .689        *518              Tim Foli 10 17 1981  30 PIT NL  86 351 316 32  78 12  2  0  20   0   1 14  3   2  7  7 .247 .285 .297 .582        *619     Burgess Whitehead 10 14 1941  31 NYG NL 116 429 403 41  92 15  4  1      23   2    10  18     7 .228 .258 .293 .551      *4/520           Joe Schultz 10 19 1922  28 STL NL 112 373 344 50 108 13  4  2      64   0        10  3  1 .314 .350 .392 .742      97/8

In 1924 Stuffy McInnis put the ball in play about 588 of his 611 PAs. You have to figure that nearly 100% of the time he's swinging, and making contact, with the first pitch he can reach. Tejada is around 3.5 P/PA, McInnis had to have been 2, 2.5. That is why pitchers used to be able to start every 3-4 days and throw 350 innings.

Or, even better, back in the real old days of the National Association when pitchers threw underhanded and it was 8 or 9 balls for a walk. Al Spalding led the league in PAs with 365 in 1874, and had zero strikeouts and 3 walks.

Edited by DrungoHazewood

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I'd love to see the P/PA numbers for some old timers, back in the day when it was possible to strike out 10 or 20 times in a full season.

I went back to 2002, which is as far back as ESPN has P/PA data, and the most impatient hitter by far was Randall Simon, who in 2002 saw 2.73 pitches per plate appearance. He put the ball in play 459 times in 506 PA (13 BB, 30 K's, 4 HBP). He was the only qualifier in the last 10 years under 3.00 P/PA.

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Well, I'll end my comments with this:

I hope Chris Davis makes the allstar team next year with newly found plate discipline. I hope Mark Reynold hits 15 home runs between now and the end of the year and we resign him for a reasonable figure. I hope the two of them carry the Orioles to a world series championship.

See, I can say something that everyone can agree on:)

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Every time he's on the TV screen and my wife is around, I say, "Is there nothing that Chris Davis cannot do?!?" She laughs. I do love me some Chris Davis. Based on his outrageous MiLB numbers you've got to think that over time it will start to translate more fully to the majors... I don't see why he can't be a .285 hitter with 38-ish dingers.

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You say he's a .750 OPS guy as if that is the low end of your expectations of Davis going forward, even though his career numbers are a hair below that and this season's numbers are eerily close to those, despite a fantastic start. .750 OPS is not good for a first baseman, corner outfielder, or DH. A .300 OBP is especially atrocious.

I really like Davis and I'm kind of tired of bashing him. But I just don't think he's our first baseman of the future. I don't think he will start making enough contact to be a first division starter. I don't think he has much development left; maybe he starts making more contact one day and turns into Jay Gibbons, but it's much more likely he's Josh Phelps.

League average OPS is about .730 this season. So a .750 OPS is better than average. I am not saying Davis is a starting 1B, I am saying he is a useful role player. Edited by El Gordo

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Leaqgue average OPS is about .730 this season. So a .750 OPS is better than average. I am not saying Davis is a starting 1B, I am saying he is a useful role player.

1B: .779

DH: .776

LF: .758

RF: .761

Davis is below average in the spots he actually fills, at least right now.

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1B: .779

DH: .776

LF: .758

RF: .761

Davis is below average in the spots he actually fills, at least right now.

I am using the league average in general. If we are saying hw is sub replacement level then his OPS should be lower than league average. I am not saying he should be a starting LF, RF or 1B. He is a role player IMO. Edited by El Gordo

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