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brianod

Chris Davis is a Keeper

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I like Chris Davis. I root for him, want him to succeed, as he seems like a good guy, and hope that he can develop into someone who should be kept around for a few years. Having said that, in no way shape or form is Chris Davis a keeper, not with the awful on-base skills that he has. Our best case scenario right now is it clicks enough that he becomes Joe Carter-lite. Our worst case scenario is he becomes Tony Batista, as the previous post mentions, where all he's good for is a homer that's negated by everything else being poor.

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I am using tleague average in general. If we are saying hew is sub replacement level then his OPS should be lower than league average. I am not saying he should be a starting LF, RF or 1B. He is a role player IMO.

I think what you are saying is correct, but my point would be that the league average OPS is not that meaningful because it includes all the players who play the most challenging defensive positions, which Davis doesn't play. I do agree with you that just because he isn't good enough to be a starter at LF, RF or 1B, doesn't mean that he doesn't have value as a role player.

There are 38 players with at least 25 PA as a 1B, and Davis ranks 15th in OPS there.

There are 53 players with at least 25 PA as a LF, and Davis ranks 17th in OPS there.

There are 53 players with at least 25 PA as a DH, and Davis ranks 27th in OPS there.

There are 38 players with at least 25 PA as a RF, and Davis ranks 35th in OPS there.

If you just looked at Davis' overall OPS, instead of his position-specific OPS, he would rank 24th, 26th, 29th and 17th in those spots.

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I think what you are saying is correct, but my point would be that the league average OPS is not that meaningful because it includes all the players who play the most challenging defensive positions, which Davis doesn't play. I do agree with you that just because he isn't good enough to be a starter at LF, RF or 1B, doesn't mean that he doesn't have value as a role player.

There are 38 players with at least 25 PA as a 1B, and Davis ranks 15th in OPS there.

There are 53 players with at least 25 PA as a LF, and Davis ranks 17th in OPS there.

There are 53 players with at least 25 PA as a DH, and Davis ranks 27th in OPS there.

There are 38 players with at least 25 PA as a RF, and Davis ranks 35th in OPS there.

If you just looked at Davis' overall OPS, instead of his position-specific OPS, he would rank 24th, 26th, 29th and 17th in those spots.

I am not concerned about his WAR. When some one says sub replacement level I think of a player I wouldn't want on the bench. That doesn't describe Davis to me. Save your numbers for someone else. Edited by El Gordo

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I've been driving Davis' bandwagon since May. The guy has a ton of potential. Let's keep in mind that he isn't a 21 year old kid with time to develop. He needs to learn plate discipline a little quicker then Adam Jones did.

His power is just absolutely unreal. I truly believe that if he was a little more disciplined in the strike zone, he could be an Adam Dunn type of player.

Take away last year, we would all be thrilled with someone like Dunn as our DH.

When did that happen? I must have missed it.

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I don't even know what the term "keeper" is supposed to mean. Obviously you keep people on your team until the cost of keeping them no longer makes sense (bang for your buck). Davis is a fine player. Not a guy I'd build a team around but he's fine. Great power, decent average and decent run producer. As long as he doesn't cost us too much or unless someone blows us away with an offer for him, of course he's a "keeper".

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I am using the league average in general. If we are saying hw is sub replacement level then his OPS should be lower than league average. I am not saying he should be a starting LF, RF or 1B. He is a role player IMO.

At each of the positions he plays he's below average both offensively and defensively (excepting DH, of course). If bb-ref and Fangraphs do the math and say that works out to replacement level I'm not going to argue.

But being roughly replacement-level isn't a death sentence. Willie Bloomquist has been replacement-level his whole career and yet he doesn't have trouble finding work, and probably fills a useful role most of the time.

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At each of the positions he plays he's below average both offensively and defensively (excepting DH, of course). If bb-ref and Fangraphs do the math and say that works out to replacement level I'm not going to argue.

But being roughly replacement-level isn't a death sentence. Willie Bloomquist has been replacement-level his whole career and yet he doesn't have trouble finding work, and probably fills a useful role most of the time.

Utility value isn't really somethng WAR is designed to capture. Davis did save us from Endy Chavez in LF and actually looked surprsingly well ot there. Assuming more irregular AB's as bench player, I question whether Davis would function well in that role or not myself.

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As far as his being a keeper or not, I think he will be kept. He fits into the equation at 1B, DH, and LF, and I think they will address one of those positions in the fall, but not all three.

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Davis is a keeper because of his cost and his potential. If he ever learns to lay off bad pitches and take more walks, watch out. I know, there's been LOTS of guys over the years who have had this problem. But man, this guy has major power.

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I am not concerned about his WAR. When some one says sub replacement level I think of a player I wouldn't want on the bench. That doesn't describe Davis to me. Save your numbers for someone else.

Why would you possibly want this hypothetical 750 OPS Davis on the bench? He can play 1B and a little OF in a pinch and is a below average hitter and defender at both positions. If you want to spot him league-average defense in LF I'll allow it for the sake of the argument, but seriously: what kind of value does a player like that offer off the bench? You'll have a real 4th OF, a reserve IF, a backup C, and...Chris Davis, waiting for the perfect opportunity to weaken the defense and add a little league-average LH power in that close-and-late situation.

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I like his defense over Betemit's at every position he plays. Also as a 100 OPS + player I don't see any better in house options for the 4th bench position. I see either Avery or McLouth as 4th, OF Andino as UT IF and Teagarden as the BuC. We don't know about Reimold, Reynolds, and Hoes is no sure thing either. What is so bad about 20 HR, 80 RBI, and a .750 OPS on the bench getting 400 PA.

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I like his defense over Betemit's at every position he plays. Also as a 100 OPS + player I don't see any better in house options for the 4th bench position. I see either Avery or McLouth as 4th, OF Andino as UT IF and Teagarden as the BuC. We don't know about Reimold, Reynolds, and Hoes is no sure thing either. What is so bad about 20 HR, 80 RBI, and a .750 OPS on the bench getting 400 PA.

Nothing, unless they're all coming at 1B, LF and DH.

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On a final note about Davis, it is interesting that his career numbers with men on base and RISP are quite a bit better than his overall numbers. I'm thinking maybe he he goes to the opposite field more and generates the higher babip (the K's appear to be about he same rate).

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