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Brendan25

For Those Screaming For Headley

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I'm not sure how you are coming to this conclusion. Machado has no prior history to compare regardless of whether he is paired with Hardy or Headley.

I did not examine defensive metrics, but offense sure gives the edge to Hardy, even if it's close. Certainly not the position you have in that Headley is clearly the better option (paired with Machado).

2011 OPS: Hardy .801; Headley .773 (Headley only 113 games)

2010 OPS: Hardy .714; Headley .702 (Hardy only 101 games)

2009 OPS: Hardy .659; Headley .734 (Hardy only 115 games)

2008 OPS: Hardy .821; Headley .757 (Headley only 91 games)

I am not sure, but I think the lack of games for both was due to injury.

You left out 2012 though.

2012 OPS: Hardy; .671 Headley; .875

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I'm not sure how you are coming to this conclusion. Machado has no prior history to compare regardless of whether he is paired with Hardy or Headley.

I did not examine defensive metrics, but offense sure gives the edge to Hardy, even if it's close. Certainly not the position you have in that Headley is clearly the better option (paired with Machado).

2011 OPS: Hardy .801; Headley .773 (Headley only 113 games)

2010 OPS: Hardy .714; Headley .702 (Hardy only 101 games)

2009 OPS: Hardy .659; Headley .734 (Hardy only 115 games)

2008 OPS: Hardy .821; Headley .757 (Headley only 91 games)

I am not sure, but I think the lack of games for both was due to injury.

Not to mention Headley's career .351 OBP, compared to Hardy's .314

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Not to mention Headley's career .351 OBP, compared to Hardy's .314

You are skewing the conversation here, my friend. I agree Headley was much better in 2012. I am challenging whether he was clearly better pre-2012 and then logically, can we project he will be better in the future merely because of an outstanding 2012 season. We can all list players who were outstanding for a half a season, or even a season or two.

I'm just saying it isn't as simple as the equation CA-Oriole posted.

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Please read the prior posts. We quoted each other.

My apologies. But, I still don't see how you can say Hardy has the offensive edge, especially if you consider the parks they have played in.

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My apologies. But, I still don't see how you can say Hardy has the offensive edge, especially if you consider the parks they have played in.

I concede that the park factor has not been considered. I wish I had time to look it up. :laughlol:

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You are skewing the conversation here, my friend. I agree Headley was much better in 2012. I am challenging whether he was clearly better pre-2012 and then logically, can we project he will be better in the future merely because of an outstanding 2012 season. We can all list players who were outstanding for a half a season, or even a season or two.

I'm just saying it isn't as simple as the equation CA-Oriole posted.

Well, Headley increased his power numbers in 2012, but even in 2011, his OBP was .374.

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I concede that the park factor has not been considered. I wish I had time to look it up. :laughlol:

I haven't looked yet either, but I bet it's a pretty good factor, in Headley's case. :)

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You still haven't answered why you have the feeling that Matusz & Arrieta would of been enough to get it done.

I never heard that a high first round draft choice and a first round money fifth rounder were enough to get Chase. I thought that the names Machado and Schoop were also kicked around. I know that they wanted a ton for him even before he had his best half season ever.

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You are skewing the conversation here, my friend. I agree Headley was much better in 2012. I am challenging whether he was clearly better pre-2012 and then logically, can we project he will be better in the future merely because of an outstanding 2012 season. We can all list players who were outstanding for a half a season, or even a season or two.

I'm just saying it isn't as simple as the equation CA-Oriole posted.

Headley was essentially a 4 WAR (includes park factor) third baseman before the second half of 2012. As Weams said, his price was high before he broke out in the second half. Machado becomes more valuable at SS. If anybody is due for regression it is likely Hardy.

Yes, the equation really is that simple.

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You left out 2012 though.

2012 OPS: Hardy; .671 Headley; .875

You are comparing a 3B to a SS, compare them amongst their peers. Thats like comparing the OPS of a 2B to a 1B. Its not an apples to apples comparison. The team also didn't sign Hardy to a team friendly deal to flip him, I am confident and glad that Hardy will be an Oriole for 2 more years. Hardy is a good player, he should be batting in the bottom third of the order, and I think we need a legit 2B option as I don't see Roberts being viable as a top starter.

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I concede that the park factor has not been considered. I wish I had time to look it up. :laughlol:
I haven't looked yet either, but I bet it's a pretty good factor, in Headley's case. :)

FWIW, FanGraphs shows that Headley has a lifetime wRC+ of 116 in 690 games, while Hardy has a lifetime wRC+ of 95 in 959 games.

A discussion of wRC+ from FanGraphs:

--------------------------------------------------------

"Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average. League average is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than league average. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

wRC+ is also park and league-adjusted, allowing one to to compare players who played in different years, parks, and leagues."

--------------------------------------------------------

Accordingly, it appears that over the course of their respective careers, all things being equal (e.g., home park), Headley has averaged substantially higher than the league average in offensive value, while Hardy has averaged slightly lower than league average.

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FWIW, FanGraphs shows that Headley has a lifetime wRC+ of 116 in 690 games, while Hardy has a lifetime wRC+ of 95 in 959 games.

A discussion of wRC+ from FanGraphs:

--------------------------------------------------------

"Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average. League average is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than league average. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

wRC+ is also park and league-adjusted, allowing one to to compare players who played in different years, parks, and leagues."

--------------------------------------------------------

Accordingly, it appears that over the course of their respective careers, all things being equal (e.g., home park), Headley has averaged substantially higher than the league average in offensive value, while Hardy has averaged slightly lower than league average.

Correct, wRC+ (for all practical purposes) composes the offensive WAR component.

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FWIW, FanGraphs shows that Headley has a lifetime wRC+ of 116 in 690 games, while Hardy has a lifetime wRC+ of 95 in 959 games.

A discussion of wRC+ from FanGraphs:

--------------------------------------------------------

"Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average. League average is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than league average. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

wRC+ is also park and league-adjusted, allowing one to to compare players who played in different years, parks, and leagues."

--------------------------------------------------------

Accordingly, it appears that over the course of their respective careers, all things being equal (e.g., home park), Headley has averaged substantially higher than the league average in offensive value, while Hardy has averaged slightly lower than league average.

Does this take into account position? I'd like to see how Headley compares to all other 3B as opposed to SS, which is obviously less of an offensive position. It's all well and good comparing a 3B bat to a SS bat, but we all know 3B are generally better hitters than SS.

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