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Crazysilver03

Weather Event Halloween Weekend

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More and more GFS ensemble members are buying into the Euro, etc., regarding an impact in the Northeast.

Lots of solutions involving New Jersey taking a direct hit at anywhere from 970 mb down to 935 mb. I'm mildly worried. If this thing hits it could be really catastrophic. Of course there's a lot of cards left to be dealt. But the consistency in the models is really troubling.

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More and more GFS ensemble members are buying into the Euro, etc., regarding an impact in the Northeast.

Lots of solutions involving New Jersey taking a direct hit at anywhere from 970 mb down to 935 mb. I'm mildly worried. If this thing hits it could be really catastrophic. Of course there's a lot of cards left to be dealt. But the consistency in the models is really troubling.

It amazes me how many people are out of the loop down here in the Delaware beaches about the impending storm and that this is setting up to be disastrous. With Seawitch this weekend, Rehoboth is completely booked. RB and OC have already started putting up Christmas decorations that will sure have to be brought down in order not to be destroyed by these storms.

If they ordered evacuations for Irene, it will be interesting to see what they do here.

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Being from the area that I am, as well as CrazySilver, this link is a good read.

I hear stories about the 1933 hurricane all the time. We still see and feel the impact on our area every day. My grandfather who was born in 1916 was a strapping 17 years old when that storm hit and he made sure that I knew it.

No television in those days and only the well off had radios. He was a deck hand on a local fishing boat. They had no advanced warnings on these storms. Life is perfect one minute and destroyed the next. We really do have a wealth of information available to us.

Edited by Snutchy

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It amazes me how many people are out of the loop down here in the Delaware beaches about the impending storm and that this is setting up to be disastrous. With Seawitch this weekend, Rehoboth is completely booked. RB and OC have already started putting up Christmas decorations that will sure have to be brought down in order not to be destroyed by these storms.

If they ordered evacuations for Irene, it will be interesting to see what they do here.

I'm not sure if you or anyone mentioned it yet but if the ECMWF et al. are correct about the mid-Atlantic to NYC solution, this will be landing on a full moon. 940 mb center + full moon would make for disastrous storm surge.

Even 970 would be a pretty big deal and right now that's the conservative solution on models looking for landfalls.

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Man I didn't realize the situation was that bad. We had a lot of flooding in town over the summer from the beach erosion "fix.". Having a business makes me worry. I completely discounted the full moon.

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Apparently some of the models are also suggesting the development of another nor'easter at the end of next week as well.

Way, way too far out for my taste, lol. But hey, I thought it was a total joke when I saw the 927 mb hitting Atlantic City earlier this week. It's pretty rare for models to be accurate at 192 hours or more, let alone 240 hours or so like the ECMWF will be if this storm nails us.

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Another big question is, assuming it lands on us, where will it go from there... there is a chance of blocking which will keep it from progressing westward, hanging over our area for an extended period of time. October storms of this nature are very rare and the precipitable water values will be very high... it's not going to get wrung out very quickly, and there's a lot of water to wring out. The colder and deeper that trough the more water that will be pulled from the dying Sandy.

...

...

Assuming it doesn't go out to sea :D

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The National Weather Service will be doing special balloon releases to get more accurate data for this event.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

I believe some of the data is already incorporated into some model runs as of 6 pm today but by tomorrow there should be a full picture of data.

Sandy ran right over Jamaica and strengthened, probably due to frictional convergence. It's got to pass over the mountains in east Cuba next. Should drop below hurricane strength, perhaps permanently but also perhaps not.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12...AS SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD

INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A

LITTLE FASTER IN THE SHORT TERM AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

ON DAY 2...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD

SPEED ARE SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER THAT TIME...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN

NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A LARGER UPPER-TROUGH

MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A

BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS

HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF

MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED

WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS

CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND

LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND

THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE

LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY

TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF

FLORIDA.

  • Upvote 1

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There is some murmurs this storm is actually getting stronger then projected. Looking over a few other weather related message boards it looks like sea temps are warmer giving this sucker a decent chance to regain strength.

Edited by Oriolesfan1988

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There is some murmurs this storm is actually getting stronger then projected. Looking over a few other weather related message boards it looks like sea temps are warmer giving this sucker a decent chance to regain strength.

Looking at the infrared radar, it's absolutely exploding on the west side the last three hours, and cold cloud tops reach all the way around the center. It could actually be so strong that it curves to the east earlier than expected. We'll have to see how it looks after it passes Cuba.

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So essentially the ECM model has the Delmarva region as the target zone, whereas the GFS model is taking it way up into Maine/Nova Scotia. Splitting the difference would make landfall along NJ/NYC/Long Island. Crazy!

There's still so much at play here, but this beast of a storm will be extremely interesting to monitor today. Start preparing for a serious impact.

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You "southerners" probably are unaware of how much last year's weather impacted us in central CT. Irene hit the state hard, and we lost power for 5 days. Then we had a freak snowstorm 2 days before Halloween, with about 10 inches of wet snow. Unfortunately, all of the leaves were still on the trees, and trees and limbs were coming down all over the place.

My neighborhood (and my property) looked like bombs exploded all over the place. Most people lost power for 7-10 days.

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You "southerners" probably are unaware of how much last year's weather impacted us in central CT. Irene hit the state hard, and we lost power for 5 days. Then we had a freak snowstorm 2 days before Halloween, with about 10 inches of wet snow. Unfortunately, all of the leaves were still on the trees, and trees and limbs were coming down all over the place.

My neighborhood (and my property) looked like bombs exploded all over the place. Most people lost power for 7-10 days.

I know that is one of the worries currently, that western Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New York could be looking at over a foot of wet snow from this storm.

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You "southerners" probably are unaware of how much last year's weather impacted us in central CT. Irene hit the state hard, and we lost power for 5 days. Then we had a freak snowstorm 2 days before Halloween, with about 10 inches of wet snow. Unfortunately, all of the leaves were still on the trees, and trees and limbs were coming down all over the place.

My neighborhood (and my property) looked like bombs exploded all over the place. Most people lost power for 7-10 days.

That freak snowstorm did hit MD as well, my whole neighborhood was filled with fallen tree branches from the wet snow, though it was more like 5 or 6 inches here.

Irene did not hit us nearly as hard as you folks up there, though.

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