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waroriole

Tourney Watch

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It's that wonderful time of the year when teams are vying for seeding and to get into the tournament.

A few thoughts:

1. I think 3 teams have a #1 locked up: Gonzaga, Duke and Indiana. The winner of the Big East tourney (if it's Louisville or G'town) will likely get the other #1. If someone else wins the BE, Kansas could get it, or it could just go to whoever looks the best in the BE tourney.

2. The Big Ten (there you go crissfan) has been the best conference all year. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up in the NCAA tourney. I am a little skeptical, but I think Indiana will win it all and hold up the conference.

3. A-10 has been a solid conference all year. They could get 5 teams in the tourney (LaSalle seems to be the most in danger), and I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one team make a deep run. St. Louis looks like they could ruin a few brackets, same with VCU. Butler is weaker this year, but well coached.

4. The SEC continues to embarrass itself in basketball. Florida looked like they were head and shoulders above everyone else, but have really faltered recently. For some reason, Kentucky is probably going to get into the tourney (they sure don't deserve it) because they are Kentucky.

That's about all I have for now.

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Really looking forward to the tourney. IU has a great chance to compete and win it all, but I think there are four or five other teams with legit chances and another five plus teams that can win on any given day.

The B1G has been the best conference, but we'll see how that plays out in the tournament. Ohio State, Michigan and MSU can look and play like top 5 teams, but all have some weird recent losses on their resume. I think we'll see the B1G with a 1, two 2s and a 3 with the top four with possibly another good seed for Wisconsin and lower seeds for Minn and maybe Ill.

I am looking at the contrast in styles and historical matchups. I would love to see GTown and MSU go at it, same with Duke-Michigan again. If Florida and Syracuse end up with four seeds, that could create some historical matchups - IU v Syracuse to get to the Elite 8.

I don't think Gonzaga is a lock for a 1 seed. That strength of schedule is embarrassing and they are 1-2 against Top 25 teams - just because they've moved up the charts with the fewest recent losses .... I think it is very difficult to line up the SoS and the quality wins of perceived top 10 teams and make Gonzaga a 1.

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Gonzaga is #4 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings and 5 in BPI. I think these rankings will have more of an effect than RPI. They're behind Florida in both of those, and the Gators aren't getting a #1. Add in best record, #1 ranked team and the fact that they're done, and I don't see any way they're not a #1.

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Saw an interesting stat in KemPom's analysis of odds in the B1G tourney that said only one team since 1994 has won the NC with a loss greater than 20 points - the Maryland 2002 team. If this holds, it will be good news for Indiana and Louisville.

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.

U.N.L.V.'s win over Air Force in the Mountain West Conference quarterfinals likely punched their ticket to the N.C.A.A. tournament, as they improved to 24-8 overall.

They will now try to improve their seeding in the semi-final and (if they make it) the championship game.

REBEL YELL

O

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UNLV was already in. Boise is in trouble now with their loss to San Diego St. They need some other fringe teams like LaSalle, Kentucky, Tennessee and Ole Miss to lose early.

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Way before Bracketology existed, I liked to predict the bracket on my own. Here's my Bubble Teams

Last 6 In:

Virginia

California

St. Mary's

Kentucky

LaSalle

Middle Tennessee

Last 6 Out:

Tennessee

Boise St.

Iowa

Ole Miss

Baylor

Denver

Barring a major upset in a big conference tourney, Memphis not winning Conference USA is the only thing that could steal a bid from another team.

Edited by waroriole

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At 21-10, losing in the quarterfinal of the MWC Tournament, and having lost all but one of their games against a ranked teams (their only win being an early season win over Creighton), they have almost no chance to make it.

They also beat Colorado St, UNLV, and San Diego St.

Most projections have them right on the edge, either on or off. I think it will depend on what teams like LaSalle, Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee do.

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UNLV was already in.

They most likely were in, but if they had lost in the quarterfinal game of a mid major conference tournament to a 17-12 Air Force team, they would have been 23-9, and still might have missed out, depending on how many upsets there are/were in other conference championship games. IMRAOAO, this win slam dunked their ticket.

Boise St. is in trouble now with their loss to San Diego St.

Yes. At 21-10, losing in the quarterfinal of the MWC Tournament, and having lost all but one of their games against ranked teams (their only win being an early season win over Creighton), they have almost no chance to make it.

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They also beat Colorado St, UNLV, and San Diego St.

Most projections have them right on the edge, either on or off. I think it will depend on what teams like LaSalle, Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee do.

They did, but they were not ranked when they beat them. San Diego State in particular had tailed off badly after a fast start by the time that they beat them ....... and then they lost to them in their very next game. At 21-10, in that conference, and with only 1 win over a ranked team, I think that they have almost no chance to make it. They would be the 5th team in that conference to make it if they do, after New Mexico, Colorado State, U.N.L.V., and San Diego State.

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It's completely irrelevant where they were ranked when they won. Kentucky was #3 at one point. You can't give a team credit for beating the #3 team if it was Kentucky. Those 3 are very solid teams, who are all easily in the tourney. On the scale of good wins, Boise has as many as teams like Tennessee or Kentucky.

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I'm still pretty sure that they won't make it as the 5th team from that conference with a 21-10 record, and losing in the first round of their tournament.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/standings/_/id/44/mountain-west-conference

They'll be praying for San Diego State to lose to New Mexico tonight.

SDSU is in regardless. They need to hope teams like LaSalle, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia lose. That is how they will get in.

FWIW, I don't think they will, but I think they will be one of the last teams out.

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It's completely irrelevant where they were ranked when they won. Kentucky was #3 at one point. You can't give a team credit for beating the #3 team if it was Kentucky. Those 3 are very solid teams, who are all easily in the tourney. On the scale of good wins, Boise has as many as teams like Tennessee or Kentucky..

I'm still pretty sure that they won't make it as the 5th team from that conference with a 21-10 record, and losing in the first round of their tournament.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/standings/_/id/44/mountain-west-conference

They'll be praying for San Diego State to lose to New Mexico tonight.

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SDSU is in regardless.

I think that's a pretty big assumption. They might be in, but they aren't a lock. After they started the season at 14-1, they went 7-8 down the stretch in a mid-major conference, 8-8 including last nights win. Teams that nosedive like that in mid-major conferences aren't exactly endearing themselves to the selection committee. Last night's win was very big, and a win tonight should seal it.

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