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caljr

Ken Rosenthal's take on where Soriono will go?!?!

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Says that he will go to highest bidder and that he talked to a GM and he said he thought he would land in Baltimore for 6/94mill

We all know how reliable these types of reports are. A GM from another team is guessing where Soriano winds up. It's no better than Steve Phillips speculating on these guys and we know his track record. For that matter, we know all of these writer's track records on guessing where guys wind up. Abysmal! The Soriano signing figures to be dragged out for some time, I would guess.

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It's interesting that he said that an AL GM said Baltimore for 6/94 when asked where he'd end up and for how much. I agree though the highest bidder will get him obviously. GMat liked having him as a teammate, called him "a big time player."

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The one thing about another current GM stating this is probably because he has discussed stuff, off the record, with our guys. Very possible that is why this GM believes we will get him.

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I think the chances of him doing a .800 ops is pretty good in 2010-2012. By that time, he will be what 34-36 years old. The chances of him dropping in production by this time are that good. I don't think we can go by the old theory that a player peaks offensively at 30 and steadily declines from there. I think with modern technology whether that is hgh or something else, players are finding a way to be productive through their mid 30s and into their late 30s in many cases. If Soriono was a pitcher, I would be concerned about signing him to a long term contract, but as a left fielder, I don't think we should be concerned at all. This is the player we should be targeting this offseason and we should overpay if that is what it takes.

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If they do give Soriano that contract, i hope they give him a big signing bonus and pay 1/10 or more of the contract up front(in addition to the first year's salary).

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I think the chances of him doing a .800 ops is pretty good in 2010-2012. By that time, he will be what 34-36 years old. The chances of him dropping in production by this time are that good. I don't think we can go by the old theory that a player peaks offensively at 30 and steadily declines from there. I think with modern technology whether that is hgh or something else, players are finding a way to be productive through their mid 30s and into their late 30s in many cases. If Soriono was a pitcher, I would be concerned about signing him to a long term contract, but as a left fielder, I don't think we should be concerned at all. This is the player we should be targeting this offseason and we should overpay if that is what it takes.

Why is it Alou can post consistantly high OPS in his late 30's but everyone seems to think it is a lock that Soriano can't make it past 35. Is Alou that much the superior athlete?

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If they do give Soriano that contract, i hope they give him a big signing bonus and pay 1/10 or more of the contract up front(in addition to the first year's salary).

why do you always want our team to do the finacially dumb thing of front loading new contracts. Something in finance 101 you learn you ONLY do when forced to?

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Alou is just one of many players today who continue to get it done in their mid to late 30s. I agree that it is silly to think that Soriono will likely decline in his mid 30s.

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why do you always want our team to do the finacially dumb thing of front loading new contracts. Something in finance 101 you learn you ONLY do when forced to?

Plus I think front loaded contracts are not allowed in MLB. Of course with the time value of money you always want to hold out as long as possible, but I am thinking of it as if we make it an even base contract we could trade him off easily.

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