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MLB.com'as Matthew Leach: "At some point, it's not a fluke. At some point, it's just what they do."

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Btw, since my return here it seems like the OH has totally changed. Maybe it is because the O's are a fine team now and no longer perpetual losers, but it seems like everyone gets along much better. I have not read one thing yet that has ticked me off which was unheard of when I posted here before. I would see stuff daily that set me off. Not anymore!! I see a kinder, gentler OH. We all seem to :agree: The O's are winners! :thumbsup1:

Well I know what I am going to do with the rest of my day.

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Right on Moose! I agree with every word you wrote to the nth degree! :clap3:

In fairness, I'm not always against the stat guys but when it comes to stuff like this, they just can't let go. Neyer can't separate what SHOULD happen with what is actually happening. There's a disconnect there and he can't explain it so he just brushes it aside. At least the original article chalks it up to being "Hey, they've been doing this for awhile now, maybe it's legit and this is how they win games."

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In fairness, I'm not always against the stat guys but when it comes to stuff like this, they just can't let go. Neyer can't separate what SHOULD happen with what is actually happening. There's a disconnect there and he can't explain it so he just brushes it aside. At least the original article chalks it up to being "Hey, they've been doing this for awhile now, maybe it's legit and this is how they win games."

As everyone knows I am generally with the stat guys but at this point they don't have anything interesting to say on the subject so they would be better off shutting up rather then repeating talking points from last summer.

How about instead of saying it can't continue they put some work into why it is happening?

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As everyone knows I am generally with the stat guys but at this point they don't have anything interesting to say on the subject so they would be better off shutting up rather then repeating talking points from last summer.

How about instead of saying it can't continue they put some work into why it is happening?

Because it'd flip everything that they take as maxim on their head.

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Because it'd flip everything that they take as maxim on their head.

A lot of them are more interested in knowing how and why then just reinforcing what we already believe. You don't get to where they have gotten if all you want to do is support the beliefs you walked in the door with.

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A lot of them are more interested in knowing how and why then just reinforcing what we already believe. You don't get to where they have gotten if all you want to do is support the beliefs you walked in the door with.

I disagree, somewhat. I don't believe Rob Neyer has any interest in advancing thought in this particular case. All he's doing is saying "Hey, nevermind that the Orioles have been playing this way since 8/11, they cannot POSSIBLY keep it up," which is exactly what they've been doing. It's much easier for Rob Neyer to make that statement and wait for the Orioles to slip and say "I told you so, the stats didn't support it, therefore I'm the smartest guy in the room because what I believe is backed up statistically and I'm right once again" rather than saying "Wow, the Orioles are really going against the grain here, let me try to figure out why...." which would probably involve several hours of research and looking at things from a different perspective of what he's used to, which is harder than writing lazy crap like this. Do you disagree that this particular piece here is lazy writing? You or I could have written it in about 20 minutes ourselves.

I'm picking on Neyer because I've felt over the years that he's just an overall negative kind of guy. Maybe the collective baseball stat gurus have hit a plateau and don't know what else to do in order to advance their cause. I dunno. All I know is I think there's a contingent of them out there that are a slave to the stats such a pythag and live in fear of a team or a player continually defying what stats say SHOULD happen because it debunks what they think/know.

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I disagree, somewhat. I don't believe Rob Neyer has any interest in advancing thought in this particular case. All he's doing is saying "Hey, nevermind that the Orioles have been playing this way since 8/11, they cannot POSSIBLY keep it up," which is exactly what they've been doing. It's much easier for Rob Neyer to make that statement and wait for the Orioles to slip and say "I told you so, the stats didn't support it, therefore I'm the smartest guy in the room because what I believe is backed up statistically and I'm right once again" rather than saying "Wow, the Orioles are really going against the grain here, let me try to figure out why...."

I'm picking on Neyer because I've felt over the years that he's just an overall negative kind of guy. Maybe the collective baseball stat gurus have hit a plateau and don't know what else to do in order to advance their cause. I dunno. All I know is I think there's a contingent of them out there that are a slave to the stats such a pythag and live in fear of a team or a player continually defying what stats say SHOULD happen because it debunks what they think/know.

Mind you I said "a lot" not all. I wasn't specifically trying to defend Neyer.

You have more then one camp. I think the ones doing actual work are not set in stone in their beliefs. Of course most of them seem to be trying to figure out how to properly quantify defense right now.

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Is all of this a winning formula, again? I'm still not convinced. The hitting's more likely to get worse than better (Based on what, specifically?), and the same goes for the bullpen (based on what?). Meanwhile, there's little reason to expect much improvement from the starting rotation (based on what?), with neither Chris Tillman nor Jake Arrieta nor Miguel Gonzalez making any real progress toward controlling the strike zone. Josh Stinson, the latest applicant for a job in the rotation, has given up four home runs in four innings (so far) (<---- that's actually Rob's parenthesis).

Hitting's more likely to get worse than better -- True. Offense may end up improved over last year, but we're not finishing the year 2nd in runs scored. 5th, if we're lucky.

Same goes for the bullpen -- False. We have a great bullpen and I'm sure it will falter once in a while, but it's the strength of the team.

Little reason to expect much improvment from the starting rotation -- False. 4.88 ERA so far compared to 4.42 last year, and much better than that in the second half. I'd bet my bottom dollar the starting pitching improves. Stinson was a one-day stopgap who only pitched because a rainout/doubleheader messed up the rotation, and for Neyer to even mention him is a joke.

Not mentioned by Neyer -- the outfield defense has underperformed and will do better.

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I always try to maintain that a lot of stats are designed as a tool or guide, not as completely gospel. They are intended to map and explain what we see with our own eyes, and can help to predict future cases. But there will always be statistical anomalies, especially with stuff like run differential, as it takes the totals. If you don't account for that, you lean on the stats too hard. Of course it won't last as an anomaly. It will eventually balance out to general norms. But that doesn't mean it'll go against the Orioles, which a lot of the "analysts" pound out will happen. The run differential could just as easily go in the Orioles favor (as it has been trending since August), to a stat that supports the winning on the field.

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Hitting's more likely to get worse than better -- True. Offense may end up improved over last year, but we're not finishing the year 2nd in runs scored. 5th, if we're lucky.

Same goes for the bullpen -- False. We have a great bullpen and I'm sure it will falter once in a while, but it's the strength of the team.

Little reason to expect much improvment from the starting rotation -- False. 4.88 ERA so far compared to 4.42 last year, and much better than that in the second half. I'd bet my bottom dollar the starting pitching improves. Stinson was a one-day stopgap who only pitched because a rainout/doubleheader messed up the rotation, and for Neyer to even mention him is a joke.

Not mentioned by Neyer -- the outfield defense has underperformed and will do better.

Not sure about the OF defense. I think we may just have to face the fact that Markakis and Jones are below average OF despite the GG's, As for the hitting, I think while Jones and Davis will cool some, Manny, Hardy, Reimold, Wieters, will improve, McLouth and Markakis will stay consistent, and 2B has no where to go but up.

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Not sure about the OF defense. I think we may just have to face the fact that Markakis and Jones are below average OF despite the GG's

Oh, I accept that they may not be GG outfielders. But right now Jones has a UZR/150 of -23.3, and Markakis is at -22.5. Numbers that bad have not been caused by a lack of range or skill, IMO, but by a few fluky, one-off plays that won't be repeated with great frequency.

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I must be missing something.

The Orioles are 12-9. They've scored 101 runs and allowed 90 runs. Their pythagorean W-L record is 12-9.

They're 4-4 in 1 run games this season and their winning streak in extra inning games just ended. Is there anything so far that indicates this is a fluke season? Maybe, they're just a good team. Like during the closing stretch last year.

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Oh, I accept that they may not be GG outfielders. But right now Jones has a UZR/150 of -23.3, and Markakis is at -22.5. Numbers that bad have not been caused by a lack of range or skill, IMO, but by a few fluky, one-off plays that won't be repeated with great frequency.

Or, maybe they will. Another dropped ball by Jones tonight, not scored an error but will hurt the UZR.

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