I think what some people fail to realize is how much the short season affected the normal draft rankings. Some guys like Kjerstad and Servideo were off to really good starts and had they kept it up through the entire season, they may have been ranked higher by pundits. It's hard to know were they off to great starts because they were playing the normal soft portion of the early season schedule, or was it genuine improvement.
Austin Hays is a good example of how a guy's great junior year shot up his draft stock, but because it was his first real success, some were still a little bit of a non believer so he was available in the 3rd round still.
All of these rankings have to be all considered with a grain of salt because of the lack of a minor league season and such short college and high school seasons.
I hope not. The Orioles have Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann, and Baumann all ready for major league opportunities behind Means and Cobb in the rotation. With Kevin Smith, Zac Lowther and Alex Wells all guys that should be at AAA this season and if they pitch well, could be worth giving opportunities as well.
I don't think Lopez or Goudeau will be in the rotation, and I really doubt Elias that Elias is worried about bringing in a Milone-type of guy unless it's on a minor league contract and if a slew of injuries requires a veteran to take some starts until the latter guys are ready.
I think we see Baumann this year, but could see also one or two of the other three depending on need and how they are pitching at AAA. Baumann will be 25 years old and was reportedly the most dominant pitcher at the alternate site last year. Had he not gotten injured, I think he would have made his debut last year. Due to his age (he'll be 31 when he's eligible for free agency under the current system) I don't think the Orioles hold him back. It would not surprise me if he wins a rotation spot this spring.
I actually think his arb price correlates with his trade value. One reason teams wouldn't trade a ton for him is you don't have confidence he can play 150 games for you. Same reason his arb price is lower. It's a reflection of what he's actually done, not a projection of what he can do. If I were a team looking for a buy low guy, Santander would be on my list. If he plays a lot for you, you can get a lot of excess value.
There's no right answer, but if Santander does nothing different except get on the field for 150 games this year, he's probably a 3+ WAR player (assuming the defense is real). If he gets on the field AND somehow dramatically improves his OBP, he's a certain all star. I never expect the latter, but I do expect that he can play a lot of games.