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jamalshw

Is it too early to plan for 2014?

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not by the numbers, very close.

We can dig a little deeper.

Choo has been worth 27.1 bWAR in 849 games. Pence 23.2 in 1051 games. Choo's OBP is .389 to Pence's .338. While Pence has a little more pop and isn't dinged for defense as much, I think it's fairly safe to say Choo is the better player. Choo's even been a better base stealer in his career (which is interesting to me because I think of Pence as pretty speedy. Choo's got him beat in both bag swiped and success rate.

I'd much prefer Choo to Pence but I'd imagine the market will price them appropriately compared to one another and that's probably out of the range the Orioles are working within.

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We can dig a little deeper.

Choo has been worth 27.1 bWAR in 849 games. Pence 23.2 in 1051 games. Choo's OBP is .389 to Pence's .338. While Pence has a little more pop and isn't dinged for defense as much, I think it's fairly safe to say Choo is the better player. Choo's even been a better base stealer in his career (which is interesting to me because I think of Pence as pretty speedy. Choo's got him beat in both bag swiped and success rate.

I'd much prefer Choo to Pence but I'd imagine the market will price them appropriately compared to one another and that's probably out of the range the Orioles are working within.

Think you should remember. We struggled against left handed pitching. Choo struggles against left handed pitching. Wouldn't it be smarter that if we're going to replace McLouth, we find an OF who hits LHP well?

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The offense isn't close. We must be looking at different lines. I'm seeing 51 more points of OBP and 41 more points of OPS. Choo also is way ahead in the more advanced offensive metrics. Pence makes up some ground on defense but not enough. By bWAR, Choo has been worth 3 more wins in the the last 5 seasons.

And Choo plays in a hitters park, Pence plays in a pitchers park, one of the most pitcher friendly park in all of baseball.

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We can dig a little deeper.

Choo has been worth 27.1 bWAR in 849 games. Pence 23.2 in 1051 games. Choo's OBP is .389 to Pence's .338. While Pence has a little more pop and isn't dinged for defense as much, I think it's fairly safe to say Choo is the better player. Choo's even been a better base stealer in his career (which is interesting to me because I think of Pence as pretty speedy. Choo's got him beat in both bag swiped and success rate.

I'd much prefer Choo to Pence but I'd imagine the market will price them appropriately compared to one another and that's probably out of the range the Orioles are working within.

I get Choo is better, but, I wasn't sure and still am not sure Pence is inferior.

And like Mark just said, Choo struggles against lefties.

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Think you should remember. We struggled against left handed pitching. Choo struggles against left handed pitching. Wouldn't it be smarter that if we're going to replace McLouth, we find an OF who hits LHP well?

Choo's been adequate against LH starters in his career to the tune of 746 OPS. Seems he gets destroyers by LOOGYs but that's not uncommon. I'll concede if you want someone to hit LHs well you'd be better off with Pence but that doesn't mean Choo isn't the better all around player. Personally, I think we'll be priced out of Choo and to a lesser extent Pence. You'll be paying for the age 31+ seasons and I think Choo's skill set will age a little bit. I'm splitting hairs, really. They're both above average players and I doubt we'll target them anyway.

Aside: I'm very surprised Choo has never been to an all-star game.

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Without any internal options over the next 3 years, I think it makes sense to potentially make a play for a more permanent LF solution.

Choo brings the badly needed OBP (Pence has BB rate 6-8%, whereas Choo brings 10-15% BB rate), but from an O's fit standpoint, has seen poor platoon splits against LHPs and does not rate highly defensively.

From a pitching standpoint, I'd look to bring back Feldman on a 3-year deal and if Gausman and Bundy prove ready, then Norris or Miguel Gonzalez can switch to bullpen.

Would roll the dice on 2B with Flaherty/Schoop.

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Choo's been adequate against LH starters in his career to the tune of 746 OPS. Seems he gets destroyers by LOOGYs but that's not uncommon. I'll concede if you want someone to hit LHs well you'd be better off with Pence but that doesn't mean Choo isn't the better all around player. Personally, I think we'll be priced out of Choo and to a lesser extent Pence. You'll be paying for the age 31+ seasons and I think Choo's skill set will age a little bit. I'm splitting hairs, really. They're both above average players and I doubt we'll target them anyway.

Aside: I'm very surprised Choo has never been to an all-star game.

You picked just LH starters, not all LH pitchers.

RHP .309 .411 .523 .934 LHP .243 .339 .341 .680 </pre>

Edited by mark_beckens

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<script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fplayers%2Fsplit.cgi%3Fid%3Dchoosh01%26year%3DCareer%26t%3Db&div=div_plato"></script>

You picked just LH starters, not all LH pitchers.

I know, I even stated that in my comment. Against LH starters in his career.

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I know, I even stated that in my comment. Against LH starters in his career.

If you're going to pay Choo 15 million a year, you really wanna PH for him late in games? His splits equal a very very good platoon player or a player who needs to be PH for late in games. I'm not saying he's a bad player or that Pence is better.

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And Choo plays in a hitters park, Pence plays in a pitchers park, one of the most pitcher friendly park in all of baseball.

Career wise Choo has a 136 OPS+. Pence 110. Park adjusted, Choo is still better this year 144 OP+ to 136 OPS+ in what is basically a career year for Pence (i.e. park adjusted). In RF their careeer defense is essentially the same by DRS. Perhaps you can make an argument that Choo's trends are more negative, though I'm not sure it's a good one based on one years data, and Pence's last 2 years average (in RF) is actually worse than Choo's.

Choo's platoon splits are a valid point, but platoon splits or not, hes still been a better player.

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If you're going to pay Choo 15 million a year, you really wanna PH for him late in games? His splits equal a very very good platoon player or a player who needs to be PH for late in games. I'm not saying he's a bad player or that Pence is better.

If Nick hit like his career avg, then most people would have been happy with McLouth.

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Career wise Choo has a 136 OPS+. Pence 110. Park adjusted, Choo is still better this year 144 OP+ to 136 OPS+ in what is basically a career year for Pence (i.e. park adjusted). In RF their careeer defense is essentially the same by DRS. Perhaps you can make an argument that Choo's trends are more negative, though I'm not sure it's a good one based on one years data, and Pence's last 2 years average (in RF) is actually worse than Choo's.

Choo's platoon splits are a valid point, but platoon splits or not, hes still been a better player.

If you're going to pay Choo 15 million a year, you really wanna PH for him late in games? His splits equal a very very good platoon player or a player who needs to be PH for late in games. I'm not saying he's a bad player or that Pence is better.

You may not have read this one before you responded.

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No Choo

4/60 for Hunter Pence

Why Pence? Choo has a career OBP of .389 compared to Pence's .338. Pence has a slight advantage in SLG that does not come close to compensating for the difference in OBP, and thus Choo's career OPS is greater by some 40 points.

So why Pence?

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I would go somewhere in the 4/60 for Choo and would have no problem spending almost all of the off-season budget on him. This team is dying for OBP, and he would be a perfect fit in LF.

Mr. Angelos is happy to inform you that he will not be in need of your services.

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If you're going to pay Choo 15 million a year, you really wanna PH for him late in games? His splits equal a very very good platoon player or a player who needs to be PH for late in games. I'm not saying he's a bad player or that Pence is better.

Personally, I'm not a fan of giving either player 15 million dollars when we have so many holes to plug. I'm also of the opinion that no one should be above getting pinch hit for late in games, even at 15 million dollars, and the team would win marginally more games with Choo in LF than Pence.

But since we don't live in that world I'll just agree with you that Pence is an above average player and when considered in a vacuum his addition would make this team better.

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