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jamalshw

Is it too early to plan for 2014?

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Bring JJ, McClouth, Feldman back. Move Norris to the pen and look for another SP via FA or trade.

There's no way the Orioles are going to move Norris to the pen. He'll be in the rotation.

All the talk of Choo and Pence is a pipe dream. We do this to ourselves every year. If the Orioles have the sort of funds (that Angelos is actually willing to spend) to sign Choo or Pence, that money would be better used going towards a Davis extension.

Left field will be another fringey guy: Rajai Davis, Andre Torres, etc. Best case scenario is McLouth comes back on another reasonable one year deal, though he'll be looking for more. Dejesus and Granderson are possibilities as well, though I think they'll get more than what the O's are willing to offer.

The biggest free agent addition they'll make will be another Feldman like starter for a year or two, 7-10 million per year. Tillman/Chen/Gonzalez/Norris/Feldman with Gausman and Wright and probably another Jurrjens/Garcia type as back up, which is actually pretty solid. If that had been our rotation to start 2013, we may very well have wound up in the playoffs. Instead, we lost a ton of games with Hammel, Arrieta, Britton, Garcia and Gausman. Not that I blame DD for that; it was a calculated decision, and we needed to see for sure what we had in Britton and Arrieta (and Hammel was lights out last year), it just happened to blow up in his face.

The biggest question of the offseason is how they'll handle the Jim Johnson situation. I'm guessing they pay him and cross their fingers, but I wouldn't be that surprised if they decided to go in another direction.

The second biggest question is whether or not they'll try to extend Davis. My suspicion is that if it doesn't get done this offseason, it won't get done at all. If he has a strong season next year, he'll be out of our price range, and if he struggles or has only a decent season, DD and Angelos will be understandably gun shy. I think you have to put Adam Jones' 6/85 extension on the table and negotiate from there.

Edited by Scrat1
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There's no way the Orioles are going to move Norris to the pen. He'll be in the rotation.

All the talk of Choo and Pence is a pipe dream. We do this to ourselves every year. If the Orioles have the sort of funds (that Angelos is actually willing to spend) to sign Choo or Pence, that money would be better used going towards a Davis extension.

Left field will be another fringey guy: Rajai Davis, Andre Torres, etc. Best case scenario is McLouth comes back on another reasonable one year deal, though he'll be looking for more. Dejesus and Granderson are possibilities as well, though I think they'll get more than what the O's are willing to offer.

The biggest free agent addition they'll make will be another Feldman like starter for a year or two, 7-10 million per year. Tillman/Chen/Gonzalez/Norris/Feldman with Gausman and Wright and probably another Jurrjens/Garcia type as back up, which is actually pretty solid. If that had been our rotation to start 2013, we may very well have wound up in the playoffs. Instead, we lost a ton of games with Hammel, Arrieta, Britton, Garcia and Gausman. Not that I blame DD for that, it was a calculated decision, and we needed to see for sure what we had in Britton and Arrieta (and Hammel was lights out last year), it just happened to blow up in his face.

The biggest question of the offseason is how they'll handle the Jim Johnson situation. I'm guessing they pay him and cross their fingers, but I wouldn't be that surprised if they decided to go in another direction.

The second biggest question is whether or not they'll try to extend Davis. My suspicion is that if it doesn't get done this offseason, it won't get done at all. If he has a strong season next year, he'll be out of our price range, and if he struggles or has only a decent season, DD and Angelos will be understandably gun shy. I think you have to put Adam Jones' 6/85 extension on the table and negotiate from there.

DD has said repeatedly, his #1 goal is to figure out, who to resign from the current roster.

Only then, will he know what he has left to spend on plugging in the holes and filling from within.

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Not anything that blows your mind and scream big upgrade but some realistic available names that we could target:

From Cardinals, 3B David Freese and RH reliever Fernando Salas. Freese seems to be expendable just because one of their top infield prospect - Wong - is ready to take the second base. That means Matt Carpenter going to 3B. Pretty stacked young cheap infield - Adams at first, Wong at second, Kozma as a SS, Carpenter at third. Craig is moved to LF. Freese is good player, could be 3B if Manny becomes SS, could be DH. Salas is cheap option as a reliever.

From Dbacks, LH reliever Joe Paterson and one of their extra outfielder - Cody Ross or Adam Eaton. Paterson has good record at AAA. Eaton is young, with good career at minors, pretty fast, probably better suited for the corner. Ross is useful but with bad contracts and history of injuries. Eaton is expendable with Prado going to be full time LF, Davidson is ready to take the third base. They also have elite defenders in Pollock and Parra.

From M's, we could target probably better suited for the bench once upon a time the big time prospects Justin Smoak and the outfielder Michael Saunders. Still have a hope for Saunders to develop better than this. Oliver Perez is dominant lefty, i'd like him here.

Solid veteran as Michael Cuddyer in package with one of Jonathan Herrera - utility infielder or good veteran reliever as a Matt Belisle. Cuddyer could be pretty good DH. You can count on him to get on base.

The big star in Matt Kemp and probably reliever like Javy Guerra from Dodgers. Great player, terrible contract, probably injury prone. But he's difference maker when healthy.

And my favourite package that could be available, Howard Kendrick and Kole Calhoun. What about Aramis Ramirez and Aoki?

In a dream world, i want one of Chase Headley, Billy Butler, Kendrys Morales and Chris Sale. Rick Porcello is another guy we should looking at.

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Where do you get that figure from? What he gets depends on what teams are after him. In any case the reality is he would cost the O's most of the 15 M they have to spend this winter. They need more than just Choo.

55-75MM over 4/5 years seemed reasonable given the recent Werth, Swisher, Bourn, and Upton contracts.

Where has DD said we only have 15MM to spend?

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There's no way the Orioles are going to move Norris to the pen. He'll be in the rotation.

All the talk of Choo and Pence is a pipe dream. We do this to ourselves every year. If the Orioles have the sort of funds (that Angelos is actually willing to spend) to sign Choo or Pence, that money would be better used going towards a Davis extension.

Left field will be another fringey guy: Rajai Davis, Andre Torres, etc. Best case scenario is McLouth comes back on another reasonable one year deal, though he'll be looking for more. Dejesus and Granderson are possibilities as well, though I think they'll get more than what the O's are willing to offer.

The biggest free agent addition they'll make will be another Feldman like starter for a year or two, 7-10 million per year. Tillman/Chen/Gonzalez/Norris/Feldman with Gausman and Wright and probably another Jurrjens/Garcia type as back up, which is actually pretty solid. If that had been our rotation to start 2013, we may very well have wound up in the playoffs. Instead, we lost a ton of games with Hammel, Arrieta, Britton, Garcia and Gausman. Not that I blame DD for that; it was a calculated decision, and we needed to see for sure what we had in Britton and Arrieta (and Hammel was lights out last year), it just happened to blow up in his face.

The biggest question of the offseason is how they'll handle the Jim Johnson situation. I'm guessing they pay him and cross their fingers, but I wouldn't be that surprised if they decided to go in another direction.

The second biggest question is whether or not they'll try to extend Davis. My suspicion is that if it doesn't get done this offseason, it won't get done at all. If he has a strong season next year, he'll be out of our price range, and if he struggles or has only a decent season, DD and Angelos will be understandably gun shy. I think you have to put Adam Jones' 6/85 extension on the table and negotiate from there.

I agree with most of this. Not sure they'll go after the Feldman type SP. Probably audition Gausman, Britton, Matusz, JJ, Stinson, McF, S. Johnson, Wright, and ERod for the #5 spot and long man. Probably sign McLouth and a Rajai Davis type for LF/4th OF. Maybe trade JJ if they can get some high SP prospects for him. Go with Valencia and Henry at DH. Big decision whether to go with Schoop at 2B or sign Roberts for another year.

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Rajai Davis would be the best possible 4th OF for this team. He could platoon with McClouth in LF. I'd rather DD spend 5+ mill a year on a starter and move Norris to the pen rather than give a RHP on the market big money. Which we wont. Norris would be great in 1-2 inning stints.

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Rajai Davis would be the best possible 4th OF for this team. He could platoon with McClouth in LF. I'd rather DD spend 5+ mill a year on a starter and move Norris to the pen rather than give a RHP on the market big money. Which we wont. Norris would be great in 1-2 inning stints.
What SP are you getting for 1/5 M?

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I would be looking to do the following:

Replace hitting coach Jim Presley

Let all our impending FAs walk.

Look to jettison the following:

Nick Markakis (trade - eat all but $4 million) ($4 million)

Matt Wieters (trade) ($7 million)

Jim Johnson (trade/DFA) ($7 million)

Tommy Hunter (trade/DFA) ($2 million)

Troy Patton (trade/DFA) ($1 million)

Brian Matusz (trade/DFA) ($2 million)

Nolan Reimold (DFA) ($1 million)

That saves $24 million right there and all of those guys aren't worth that money for the production they give and can be replaced internally.

Urrutia replaces Markakis

Clevenger is part of a platoon that replaces Wieters

O'Day replaces Johnson as closer

Steve Johnson replaces Patton

Britton/McFarland replaces Matusz

Miguel Gonzalez replaces Hunter

Next you go out and go after Choo, making him a 5 year $80 million offer with an expiration date of the end of the Winter Meetings. He's the big splash if you can land him. A backup plan for LF would be a trade for Norichika Aoki from the Brewers.

You lure Burnett back to Baltimore with a 2 year 26 million dollar contract. He is your ace. If I can't get Burnett, Arroyo would be a second choice for around the same $. The Orioles need to find a guy that will definitely give them close 200 innings and 15-20 quality starts.

I also sign Colby Lewis to a 1 year deal for $4 million with incentives for IP to take it to $10 because if healthy he could be one of those guys.

There are plenty of SPs out there as well that will be available so I look to sign 1 or 2 of them to a minor league deal like we've done with Garcia and Jurrjens.

For the bullpen, I'd do some minor league signings - Erik Bedard being a prime candidate if he doesn't want to retire.

For DH, I'm looking to trade for Billy Butler first, as with the money owed on his contract KC may be looking to dump him and the Orioles can afford him. Second choice would be a trade for Josh Willingham from the Twins.

I'd sign one of the many catchers out there to platoon with Clevenger. Suzuki/Soto - somebody like that.

I'd bring back Dickerson on a minor league deal and I'd look to bring in another Conor Jackson type - Grady Sizemore would be worth taking a flyer on. But I would also look for a strong UTI type like maybe a Michael Young.

Now I'd also approach Davis with an extension, after I've made all these moves. ST or just before is probably when that happens. I'm looking at a 5/80-85 type of deal.

Schoop becomes my 2B man by default. Time to see what he's got.

I think I can get some bullpen arms back in some of those trades so I'll put one of those in the bullpen. Josh Stinson seems to be a decent MR guy so I'll keep him in there for now.

Lineup:

LF Choo/Aoki

3B Machado

DH Butler

1B Davis

CF Jones

RF Urrutia

SS Hardy

C Clevenger/platoon

2B Schoop

Bench:

UTI Young

UTI Flaherty

OF Dickerson

Backup C

Rotation

Burnett/Arroyo

Tillman

Norris

Lewis

Chen

Bullpen:

LR Bedard

RP via trade

MR Stinson

MR McFarland/Britton

MR Gonzalez

MR Johnson

CL O'Day

The names in the bench are interchangeable as are the bullpen, but the overall main theme of the offseason is to find guys that can give you innings and QS to shore up the rotation and find guys that have the OBP that can be driven in by the guys that have your power namely - Jones and Davis. Spend your money there, and let your internal guys take care of the rest.

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I would be looking to do the following:

Replace hitting coach Jim Presley

Let all our impending FAs walk.

Look to jettison the following:

Nick Markakis (trade - eat all but $4 million) ($4 million)

Matt Wieters (trade) ($7 million)

Jim Johnson (trade/DFA) ($7 million)

Tommy Hunter (trade/DFA) ($2 million)

Troy Patton (trade/DFA) ($1 million)

Brian Matusz (trade/DFA) ($2 million)

Nolan Reimold (DFA) ($1 million)

That saves $24 million right there and all of those guys aren't worth that money for the production they give and can be replaced internally.

Urrutia replaces Markakis

Clevenger is part of a platoon that replaces Wieters

O'Day replaces Johnson as closer

Steve Johnson replaces Patton

Britton/McFarland replaces Matusz

Miguel Gonzalez replaces Hunter

Next you go out and go after Choo, making him a 5 year $80 million offer with an expiration date of the end of the Winter Meetings. He's the big splash if you can land him. A backup plan for LF would be a trade for Norichika Aoki from the Brewers.

You lure Burnett back to Baltimore with a 2 year 26 million dollar contract. He is your ace. If I can't get Burnett, Arroyo would be a second choice for around the same $. The Orioles need to find a guy that will definitely give them close 200 innings and 15-20 quality starts.

I also sign Colby Lewis to a 1 year deal for $4 million with incentives for IP to take it to $10 because if healthy he could be one of those guys.

There are plenty of SPs out there as well that will be available so I look to sign 1 or 2 of them to a minor league deal like we've done with Garcia and Jurrjens.

For the bullpen, I'd do some minor league signings - Erik Bedard being a prime candidate if he doesn't want to retire.

For DH, I'm looking to trade for Billy Butler first, as with the money owed on his contract KC may be looking to dump him and the Orioles can afford him. Second choice would be a trade for Josh Willingham from the Twins.

I'd sign one of the many catchers out there to platoon with Clevenger. Suzuki/Soto - somebody like that.

I'd bring back Dickerson on a minor league deal and I'd look to bring in another Conor Jackson type - Grady Sizemore would be worth taking a flyer on. But I would also look for a strong UTI type like maybe a Michael Young.

Now I'd also approach Davis with an extension, after I've made all these moves. ST or just before is probably when that happens. I'm looking at a 5/80-85 type of deal.

Schoop becomes my 2B man by default. Time to see what he's got.

I think I can get some bullpen arms back in some of those trades so I'll put one of those in the bullpen. Josh Stinson seems to be a decent MR guy so I'll keep him in there for now.

Lineup:

LF Choo/Aoki

3B Machado

DH Butler

1B Davis

CF Jones

RF Urrutia

SS Hardy

C Clevenger/platoon

2B Schoop

Bench:

UTI Young

UTI Flaherty

OF Dickerson

Backup C

Rotation

Burnett/Arroyo

Tillman

Norris

Lewis

Chen

Bullpen:

LR Bedard

RP via trade

MR Stinson

MR McFarland/Britton

MR Gonzalez

MR Johnson

CL O'Day

The names in the bench are interchangeable as are the bullpen, but the overall main theme of the offseason is to find guys that can give you innings and QS to shore up the rotation and find guys that have the OBP that can be driven in by the guys that have your power namely - Jones and Davis. Spend your money there, and let your internal guys take care of the rest.

That looks like a 70 win team.

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Ugh, instead of DFA it should be NT for non-tender. That's what I get for doing this after waking up and feeding my son...

Actually, the way you just gutted the team, would might think you were still asleep or dreaming.

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Actually, the way you just gutted the team, would might think you were still asleep or dreaming.

Lol. I just think JTrea went a bit over the top. Too much movement makes it (1) unrealistic (though all of our projection and wishes probably fit this category, JTrea's more than anyones though) and (2) Over complicated. I think the adjustments made in JTrea's team are enough to struggle to get us back to where we are talent wise (if that) and doesn't help us move forward.

As I noted in my opening post, I think we should keep everyone already signed (and/or under team control) outside of Johnson (who should be non-tendered and only brought back at a reduced rate) and Reimold.

To me, I'd love Choo to be our top acquisition with all other holes filled at a cheaper rate. Note: my team construction below is not realistic and is probably assuming too much $$, but if JTrea can do it, then so can I.

Line-up:

1. LF- Shin-Soo Choo (L)

2. 3B- Manny Machado ®

3. 1B- Chris Davis (L)

4. CF- Adam Jones ®

5. C- Matt Wieters (S)

6. SS- JJ Hardy ®

7. RF- Nick Markakis (L)

8. DH- Danny Valencia ®/David Murphy (L)

9. 2B- Jonathan Schoop ®

Bench: Steve Clevenger ©, Ryan Flaherty (INF), Valencia/Murphy, **4th OFer**

Rotation:

1. Chris Tillman

2. Wei-Yin Chen

3. Dan Haren/Jason Vargas/etc

4. Bud Norris/Miguel Gonzalez

5. Kevin Gausman (Britton, S.Johnson, etc also given shot to earn spot)

Bullpen:

Closer: Tommy Hunter

RP: Miguel Gonzalez/Bud Norris

RP: Brian Matusz

RP: Troy Patton

RP: Darren O'Day

RP: Josh Stinson

RP: Steve Johnson/Zach Britton/etc - open competition

*I expect a good number of depth signings for the bullpen and rotation

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Lol. I just think JTrea went a bit over the top. Too much movement makes it (1) unrealistic (though all of our projection and wishes probably fit this category, JTrea's more than anyones though) and (2) Over complicated. I think the adjustments made in JTrea's team are enough to struggle to get us back to where we are talent wise (if that) and doesn't help us move forward.

As I noted in my opening post, I think we should keep everyone already signed (and/or under team control) outside of Johnson (who should be non-tendered and only brought back at a reduced rate) and Reimold.

To me, I'd love Choo to be our top acquisition with all other holes filled at a cheaper rate. Note: my team construction below is not realistic and is probably assuming too much $$, but if JTrea can do it, then so can I.

Line-up:

1. LF- Shin-Soo Choo (L)

2. 3B- Manny Machado ®

3. 1B- Chris Davis (L)

4. CF- Adam Jones ®

5. C- Matt Wieters (S)

6. SS- JJ Hardy ®

7. RF- Nick Markakis (L)

8. DH- Danny Valencia ®/David Murphy (L)

9. 2B- Jonathan Schoop ®

Bench: Steve Clevenger ©, Ryan Flaherty (INF), Valencia/Murphy, **4th OFer**

Rotation:

1. Chris Tillman

2. Wei-Yin Chen

3. Dan Haren/Jason Vargas/etc

4. Bud Norris/Miguel Gonzalez

5. Kevin Gausman (Britton, S.Johnson, etc also given shot to earn spot)

Bullpen:

Closer: Tommy Hunter

RP: Miguel Gonzalez/Bud Norris

RP: Brian Matusz

RP: Troy Patton

RP: Darren O'Day

RP: Josh Stinson

RP: Steve Johnson/Zach Britton/etc - open competition

*I expect a good number of depth signings for the bullpen and rotation

I think they resign Feldman, and the starting five for at least the begining of the season, will be: Tillman, Gonzo, Chen, Norris and Feldman.

I don't think they will spend the money needed to go after Choo.

Not sold that Celeveger will be the backup catcher, I wouldn't be shock to see Teagarden back.

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Keep in mind I'm working under a budget and the talent dropped may seem like names but go look at the value of that talent. 4 relievers combined for 2.5 fWAR and we spent close to 10 million on them. Wieters was worth 2.4 fWAR and Markakis was at 0.2. That value is replaceable and you gain it back with Choo, Butler and SP.

Now if I could increase payroll a bit, I'd keep Wieters and maybe Matusz, but on a budget with the additions in pitching and OBP, that's not where I would spend the money.

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