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Johnson Part of the Core

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Over the past two seasons, Jim Johnson has a save percentage of 89.1%, essentially identical to Mariano Rivera's career number.

If nontendered by the Orioles, he would be one of the best relievers on the market.

Over the past three season (228 IP, or one long season for a starter), he has a combined 2.68 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 6.6 WAR. A starting pitcher with these stats in one season would be a top-5 Cy Young candidate.

Relievers may not be worth $9M/year, but if any are, Jim Johnson is one of them. He was lucky in 2012 with the timing of when he gave up runs and unlucky with it this year. He also managed a 2.90 ERA this year despite an unusually high BABIP.

I think this was an incredibly easy decision. Not only that, it's a ONE YEAR DEAL! There's literally zero long-term risk.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Duquette said the club plans to tender Jim Johnson, considers him part of their core.</p>? Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) <a href="
">September 27, 2013</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Johnson will remain closer despite another big raise coming.</p>? Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">September 27, 2013</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So they are willing to pay MORE then 6.5 Million for Johnson. If this team cries poor later we know where to look first.

You you blame Johnson because the team will give him more money?

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I'm just trying to make sense of it. After what happened in 2012, and what happened in 2013, let's give the guy a huge contract!

I thought JTrea was ridiculous but you take the cake in this one.

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Remember saves are a useless stat. But we are gonna use nine blown saves as a reason to run him out of town and throw an already shaky pen into even more flux.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

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like who?

What fireballer K machine is out there right now?

JJ's BABIP last year - .257

This year - .321

Career AVG - .289

ERA + last year 170

ERA+ this year 145

That BABIP number is really striking. His FIP numbers are essentially the same from last year.

His BABIP is up despite being a ground ball pitcher playing in front of a defense that is improved from the 2012 version.

I am not sure that is bad luck.

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I'm a little surprised Duquette declared this publicly, long before the non-tender deadline. However, I don't disagree with the decision. I do agree that we can consider shopping him.

People need to realize that when you have 57 save opportunities, you are going to blow some. Even Mariano has only a career 89% save rate. 89% of 57 chances means you're going to blow 6 saves. JJ's at 84.2%, which is below average for a good closer, but not really awful, either.

As to salary, I don't know why people think JJ will get $9 mm. Arbitrators can read. They'll know he blew 9 saves. They'll know JJ's $6.5 mm from last year was predicated on a 94% save rate and the fact that JJ was a key reason the O's made the playoffs in 15 years, and this year JJ was a significant reason why the O's did not make the playoffs. And JJ and his agent know these things, too. I look for JJ to settle for a modest raise. I even think it's possible -- hold on to your seats -- that the O's will ink JJ to a 2-3 year deal at $7 mm per or so.

http://www.komonews.com/sports/Arbitration-eligible-baseball-players-get-average-119-raise-191903541.html

All 133 players who filed last month settled, gaining an average increase of 119 percent, according to a study by The Associated Press. San Francisco catcher Buster Posey, the NL batting champion and MVP, led the way with a 13-fold hike to $8 million.

We think it because the arbitration process is generally very profitable for players.

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fact: Jim Johnson had a poor year

fact: Jim Johnson has saved 99 games the last two years

fact: JJ's BABIP this year was .321, 32 points higher than his career average

fact: JJ blew nine saves this year

fact: If the Orioles make JJ an offer and he declines they get a comp pick

opinion: There aren't a lot of better options out there

opinion: JJ cost us the playoffs

fact: There were a lot of factors that conspired to keep the Orioles out of the post season

That is not a fact. JJ is still under team control, if he refuses the O's offer it goes to Arbitration.

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You you blame Johnson because the team will give him more money?

I don't blame Johnson, I blame the FO for overspending.

I don't ever begrudge players whatever money they can convince owners to spend.

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I don't blame Johnson, I blame the FO for overspending.

I don't ever begrudge players whatever money they can convince owners to spend.

I am sorry I was confused what you were saying. Go O's.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Duquette said the club plans to tender Jim Johnson, considers him part of their core.</p>? Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) <a href="
">September 27, 2013</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Johnson will remain closer despite another big raise coming.</p>? Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) <a href="

">September 27, 2013</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So they are willing to pay MORE then 6.5 Million for Johnson. If this team cries poor later we know where to look first.

Josh Freeman got a vote of confidence on Monday as well. What Duquette said is meaningless. No need to overreact because you know Duquette will get call on JJ, and if one is good enough, then he will do it.

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His BABIP is up despite being a ground ball pitcher playing in front of a defense that is improved from the 2012 version.

I am not sure that is bad luck.

The main departure in expected BABIP is in his flyball rate and his HR/FB rate. His split OPS+ is 179 on flyballs, and he's allowed more hits on balls in play than would be expected.

Other than that, his BABIP is up because his LD rate went up at the same rate that his GB rate went down. As a component of his overall FIP numbers, this was counteracted by the fact that his K rate and K/BB both went up.

Also, in 2012, he got a bit lucky on balls in play. While I would expect his numbers on in-play grounders to be better than average, his numbers on flyballs and line drives were also better than expected in 2012. In 2013, on the other hand, he was average on in-play line drives and well below-average on in-play flyballs, and his HR/FB rate was higher than normal.

Edited by Hallas
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Josh Freeman got a vote of confidence on Monday as well. What Duquette said is meaningless. No need to overreact because you know Duquette will get call on JJ, and if one is good enough, then he will do it.

I did notice that while he stated that JJ will be tendered a contract that he did not dismiss the idea of him being traded.

I don't think there is going to be a market for a low K closer making in excess of 6.5 million.

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That is not a fact. JJ is still under team control, if he refuses the O's offer it goes to Arbitration.

I assumed he was talking about next year. Though the Orioles would be crazy to offer a qualifying offer.

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