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Johnson Part of the Core

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The main departure in expected BABIP is in his flyball rate and his HR/FB rate. His split OPS+ is 179 on flyballs, and he's allowed more hits on balls in play than would be expected.

Other than that, his BABIP is up because his LD rate went up at the same rate that his GB rate went down. As a component of his overall FIP numbers, this was counteracted by the fact that his K rate and K/BB both went up.

So some, but not all, of the increase can reasonably be attributed to luck.

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I assumed he was talking about next year. Though the Orioles would be crazy to offer a qualifying offer.

I think that regardless of his performance next season almost everyone would agree that a qualifying offer would be a very poor idea.

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I think that regardless of his performance next season almost everyone would agree that a qualifying offer would be a very poor idea.

You would think that. But there is never a consensus, even about the most logical things.

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So some, but not all, of the increase can reasonably be attributed to luck.

Yeah, basically. It's really a tough one for me, because his skillset more often than not will result in a sub-3 ERA, which is very good, and he's shown the ability to maintain that level of play since he's basically done it for 3 years. A 9 million offer is not really all that out of line, because he's probably worth 2-2.5 wins, and his blown saves this season have been partially due to the fact that he is placed in higher-leverage closing situations than average closers. Since our only other reliable BP arms at the moment are Home Run Hunter and DOD, I'm inclined to keep him for another year and kick the can down to 2015, but it's really a tough call. I would prefer an offer in the 8 to 8.5 million range, because that would represent a slight discount. 9 million is pretty much market-rate for the wins we get out of him.

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Yeah, basically. It's really a tough one for me, because his skillset more often than not will result in a sub-3 ERA, which is very good, and he's shown the ability to maintain that level of play since he's basically done it for 3 years. A 9 million offer is not really all that out of line, because he's probably worth 2-2.5 wins, and his blown saves this season have been partially due to the fact that he is placed in higher-leverage closing situations than average closers. Since our only other reliable BP arms at the moment are Home Run Hunter and DOD, I'm inclined to keep him for another year and kick the can down to 2015, but it's really a tough call. I would prefer an offer in the 8 to 8.5 million range, because that would represent a slight discount. 9 million is basically market-rate for the wins we get out of him.

I would rather roll the dice with Wright for 500K and use the 8.5 million saving elsewhere.

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Saves is the must misleading stat you can look at man. All his other stats suck. 9m a year closer are for people that can come in and SO the side and Jim not one.

First of all, I already disputed that Johnson's going to get $9 mm next year. I seriously doubt it.

Second of all, Johnson has a 2.90 ERA. Explain to me how that "sucks." That ranks him in the top half of relievers who pitched at least 50 innings.

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First of all, I already disputed that Johnson's going to get $9 mm next year. I seriously doubt it.

Second of all, Johnson has a 2.90 ERA. Explain to me how that "sucks." That ranks him in the top half of relievers who pitched at least 50 innings.

ERA can be misleading. ERA for a reliever/closer can be more misleading. Johnson has a around a 3.5 FIP/xFIP this year. Fairly close to his career numbers. That's ok, but nothing great.

If they're going to raise payroll, then I guess I'm fine with Jim Johnson, but it really doesn't seem like good baseball economics to pay him even 7-8 mil imo.

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fact: There were a lot of factors that conspired to keep the Orioles out of the post season

Even though I tend to agree with the statement, it is not fact. The only fact regarding the Orioles and the playoffs is they did not win enough games to qualify. What kept them out is up for debate and THAT is opinion, whether it was Johnson and the rotation or many factors.

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9 million is pretty much market-rate for the wins we get out of him.

Fangraphs has him pegged at 0.8WAR on the season and a dollar worth of $4.1M. Granted those figures aren't gospel, but it sure does feel like an overpay on our part.

If JJ were elite then $9M sure! But he is really just an above average reliever who tends to struggle with his mechanics from one outing to the next and who relies heavily on generating double-plays for his saves.

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http://www.komonews.com/sports/Arbitration-eligible-baseball-players-get-average-119-raise-191903541.html

We think it because the arbitration process is generally very profitable for players.

That is terrible data to use. For one thing, it includes all the guys who were making $500 K and are arbitration eligible for the first time. I guarantee you those guys get a much higher percentage raise than guys like JJ who are already highly compensated and are eligible for the last time. And even if I had data for the guys who were in their final year of eligibility, the amount of raises they got would vary a lot, depending on how they had performed in the prior season compared to their past performance. And let's not forget the Orioles have an unparalleled record of winning in arbitration. I guarantee you Jim Johnson won't be getting $9 mm next season.

Here's a decent comp: Rafael Soriano made $6.35 mm his final year with the Braves, in which he had a 2.97 ERA and saved 27 games (4 blown saves). He then got traded to Tampa before his final year of arbitration, and signed for $7.25 mm. I think JJ will do better than $7.25 mm because he's had two full years as a closer (Soriano only had one) and because his save total is so high, but he's not going to make millions more, because his save rate was poor and it hurt the team. My guess is JJ will get somewhere north of $7.5 mm, but not as high as $8 mm.

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That is terrible data to use. For one thing, it includes all the guys who were making $500 K and are arbitration eligible for the first time. I guarantee you those guys get a much higher percentage raise than guys like JJ who are already highly compensated and are eligible for the last time. And even if I had data for the guys who were in their final year of eligibility, the amount of raises they got would vary a lot, depending on how they had performed in the prior season compared to their past performance. And let's not forget the Orioles have an unparalleled record of winning in arbitration. I guarantee you Jim Johnson won't be getting $9 mm next season.

Here's a decent comp: Rafael Soriano made $6.35 mm his final year with the Braves, in which he had a 2.97 ERA and saved 27 games (4 blown saves). He then got traded to Tampa before his final year of arbitration, and signed for $7.25 mm. I think JJ will do better than $7.25 mm because he's had two full years as a closer (Soriano only had one) and because his save total is so high, but he's not going to make millions more, because his save rate was poor and it hurt the team. My guess is JJ will get somewhere north of $7.5 mm, but not as high as $8 mm.

Well Frobby some data is better then no data. Soriano only had 27 saves his final year with the Braves, Mike Gonzalez had 10.

It is hard to put a number on what he will get since there is a limited chance it actually goes to Arbitration but I think your number is low. It looks like you are predicting a 20% raise, I can't see him getting that low a number with 100 saves over the last two seasons.

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I would rather roll the dice with Wright for 500K and use the 8.5 million saving elsewhere.

Or anyone who can reasonably perform the role. And to SJ's earlier post regarding closer by committee never working, I have rarely if ever seen a mgr. today use that system for an entire season but there is no evidence it doesn't work.

First of all, I already disputed that Johnson's going to get $9 mm next year. I seriously doubt it.

Second of all, Johnson has a 2.90 ERA. Explain to me how that "sucks." That ranks him in the top half of relievers who pitched at least 50 innings.

It doesn't suck. Here's the thing: who are the Orioles? I'm really surprised that DD makes that statement because it puts the team in a box. They didn't do it with Reynolds and when the time came they said some complimentary things but opted out. Why not just let the process play out.?I thought the model was TB. I know no one has come out and said it but clearly the team is operating in the middle of the pack for payroll, not spending crazily on FA.

So, now we're going to say something like Johnson is part of the core and NOT make him a reasonable offer? Or trade him and then say it's part of the business? Can you imagine after we extended Jones we got a great offer and said that? That won't look very good to other guys. You have to think they believe it. I suppose because it's a one year deal they could find a trade partner, but for $8 or $9 million it seems a lot less likely.

It's a curious move because of the money he's going to make and the team we are, not because he isn't worth it. Are we becoming the Yankees again? Great. Let's buy a front of the rotation guy, too! How about a RH MOO we've all been craving? Anyone think that's happening?

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Keeping Johnson and tying up that much money in a closer makes no sense unless you are going to raise payroll significantly. I am pretty confident somebody like Darren O'Day could step in to the role and do just as good for less.

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