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Johnson Part of the Core

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I have been upset at times this year with him but I wanted him back. He is our best option by far and I don't his money is costing us elsewhere. We aren't going after a top FA anyway. I guess if you argue it costs us Feldman, a new LF and or a DH then you could make your case but I don't think it does.

This team is looking at about a $10M budget after arbitration and salary raises, even after the contracts that expire are accounted for. The $8M JJ will get could/would be better utilized.

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This team is looking at about a $10M budget after arbitration and salary raises, even after the contracts that expire are accounted for. The $8M JJ will get could/would be better utilized.

I don't agree with the budget talk. There is going to be an infusion of money in the game next year. Attendance and TV ratings are up. I don't think we know what the budget will be. I am not saying you are wrong but I think our payroll has the ability to go up.

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I don't agree with the budget talk. There is going to be an infusion of money in the game next year. Attendance and TV ratings are up. I don't think we know what the budget will be. I am not saying you are wrong but I think our payroll has the ability to go up.

Or sign him long term for less then 10 a year. Over the last two years he has shown his is one of the best closers in the game. Say 3/25.

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I have been upset at times this year with him but I wanted him back. He is our best option by far and I don't his money is costing us elsewhere. We aren't going after a top FA anyway. I guess if you argue it costs us Feldman, a new LF and or a DH then you could make your case but I don't think it does.

McLouth is getting a raise and will probably be in the $5 million range. Buck has said he wants Feldy back and he might be around $8 million per. Those are both according to MLBTR. So, that's $13 million right there. Are you still ok if we get only one?

Not sure what you mean. Blown saves have been important all season around here.

You cited saves not blown saves. You knew exactly what I meant. Saves is one of the most worthless stats around. As long as you're mentioning it though, saves can be earned, TOO easily. Meaning anyone can come in with a three run lead and get a save. Not exactly high leverage. Johnson earned all his blown saves, we only recovered from one of them plus he had eight losses. So, by my count he had a hand in 16 losses. Go ahead and cite his percentage again though.

A good stat for Johnson if you're interested is WPA.

Last year he was 5.3 This year -0.7

I will say this. I don't think JJ's contract will be the difference in what we do in the offseason. My point is I don't think his money will cost us in terms of what we are planning to do anyway. Time will tell.

Our owner is the same guy. Each team gets an additional $25 million this year. Do you really think PA is going to use it all on payroll? That doesn't even take into account the increases in revenue and at the gate.

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Has there been a shutdown/meltdown evaluation of JJ?

I'm rusty on the exact definition of a shutdown, but since that post , JJ has pitched five scoreless innings: three in one-run saves, one in a 2-run save, and one in a tie game. If all five count, his shutdown rate is 76%.

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You cited saves not blown saves. You knew exactly what I meant. Saves is one of the most worthless stats around. As long as you're mentioning it though, saves can be earned, TOO easily. Meaning anyone can come in with a three run lead and get a save. Not exactly high leverage. Johnson earned all his blown saves, we only recovered from one of them plus he had eight losses. So, by my count he had a hand in 16 losses. Go ahead and cite his percentage again though.

Yeah it was mentioned because JJ became the 4 pitcher to ever have 100 saves in two consecutive seasons. It's quite the accomplishment.

Especially since as you put it, anyone can get them. If saves are over rated, then blown saves are too. You can not minimalize one while using the other to prove whatever point you think you're trying to make.

3 wins 49 saves = having a hand in 52 of our wins also.

Edited by mark_beckens

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Johnson earned all his blown saves, we only recovered from one of them plus he had eight losses. So, by my count he had a hand in 16 losses.

Then you are pretty bad at counting, because five of his losses came in games where he'd blown the save, and you don't get to count them twice. But I have a hard time believing that a smart guy like you who knows that the O's lost 8 of the 9 games where JJ blew a save didn't know that five of his losses came in those games.

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Yeah it was mentioned because JJ became the 4 pitcher to ever have 100 saves in two consecutive seasons. It's quite the accomplishment.

Especially since as you put it, anyone can get them. If saves are over rated, then blown saves are too. You can not minimalize one while using the other to prove whatever point you think you're trying to make.

3 wins 49 saves = having a hand in 52 of our wins also.

Again, I didn't bring it up you did. I wasn't using it to make a point. You used it in your post. You did, however, totally disregard the more useful WPA stat I posted.

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Then you are pretty bad at counting, because five of his losses came in games where he'd blown the save, and you don't get to count them twice. But I have a hard time believing that a smart guy like you who knows that the O's lost 8 of the 9 games where JJ blew a save didn't know that five of his losses came in those games.

My mistake, but again my point was that saves is not as useful a statistic as WPA. Johnson last year WPA 5.3 This year -0.7

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