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Brendan25

What Would You Give Davis

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If Jones is worth 6/85.5M to the O's .....

Then Davis is worth 6/110M.

Where Jones swings has misses the low and away pitch, Davis hits it for a homer to the opposite field.

It's not a very apt comparison, IMO. Jones plays a premium defensive position and Davis does not. Jones had a much clearer track record last May when he signed his contract than Davis has at this point. Jones already had 4 seasons of 2.0 WAR or better under his belt, and was off to a very good start in 2012. Davis is clearly a higher risk than Jones was last May, although the reward also may be higher. He's had exactly one year worth 2.0 WAR or better, though it was a better year than any year that Jones has had. Also, Davis is a year older now than Jones was when he signed.

I'm a bit nervous that the Davis we saw in the 2nd half (.854 OPS) is a bit closer to reality than the one we saw in the first half (1.109 OPS). If I had to guess, I'd say Davis' norm the next several years will be in the .875-.925 range. That's still very valuable, and a lot better than the O's have done at 1B for the last 15 years or so.

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It's not a very apt comparison, IMO. Jones plays a premium defensive position and Davis does not. Jones had a much clearer track record last May when he signed his contract than Davis has at this point. Jones already had 4 seasons of 2.0 WAR or better under his belt, and was off to a very good start in 2012. Davis is clearly a higher risk than Jones was last May, although the reward also may be higher. He's had exactly one year worth 2.0 WAR or better, though it was a better year than any year that Jones has had. Also, Davis is a year older now than Jones was when he signed.

I'm a bit nervous that the Davis we saw in the 2nd half (.854 OPS) is a bit closer to reality than the one we saw in the first half (1.109 OPS). If I had to guess, I'd say Davis' norm the next several years will be in the .875-.925 range. That's still very valuable, and a lot better than the O's have done at 1B for the last 15 years or so.

Davis has shown us his upside. And its much higher than Jones offensively. He will probably not repeat this production next year and I can agree with 875-925. But what is that worth? Probably more than what Jones signed for.

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Davis has shown us his upside. And its much higher than Jones offensively. He will probably not repeat this production next year and I can agree with 875-925. But what is that worth? Probably more than what Jones signed for.
It is about a 4 WAR season. So it's 20 M in production. So 5/75 would be very reasonable, IMO.

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It is about a 4 WAR season. So it's 20 M in production. So 5/75 would be very reasonable, IMO.

Again I agree with Gordo. Anything more than this and we'll be in the Roberts/Markakis salary hell in 4 or 5 years with the Deputy.

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Crush has played 330 games for the Orioles, prorated over 160 games, it comes out to this:

592 AB

94 R

165 H

34 2B

0 3B

43 HR

114 RBI

3 SB

56 BB

197 SO

.279 BA

.346 OBP

.554 SLG

.900 OPS

How much would that production be worth over the next 4-5 years?

Assuming he could maintain those averages over that time. Possibly exceeding a time or two and possibly falling short a time or two.

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Crush has played 330 games for the Orioles, prorated over 160 games, it comes out to this:

592 AB

94 R

165 H

34 2B

0 3B

43 HR

114 RBI

3 SB

56 BB

197 SO

.279 BA

.346 OBP

.554 SLG

.900 OPS

How much would that production be worth over the next 4-5 years?

Assuming he could maintain those averages over that time. Possibly exceeding a time or two and possibly falling short a time or two.

Between 4-5 WAR per year or between 20-25 M per.

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What Would You Give Davis ?

$100 Million worth of Klondike Bars.

Either that, or $99 Million in cash, and $1 Million worth of Klondike bars.

I'd leave the choice up to him (Davis.)

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Crush has played 330 games for the Orioles, prorated over 160 games, it comes out to this:

592 AB

94 R

165 H

34 2B

0 3B

43 HR

114 RBI

3 SB

56 BB

197 SO

.279 BA

.346 OBP

.554 SLG

.900 OPS

How much would that production be worth over the next 4-5 years?

Assuming he could maintain those averages over that time. Possibly exceeding a time or two and possibly falling short a time or two.

If he does that over five years, that is worth 100 million. You need to gamble that he will exceed what you pay him and you need to make Boras wonder if he will actually be able to produce at that level long term. Otherwise we are simply wasting time.

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I'll just go on record saying I don't expect Davis to consistently put up 5-7 WAR seasons and I don't believe he'll be awarded 10+MM in arbitration this year (a 300%+ raise in his second arb season).

Oh, I think he'll get $10 mm next year. As others have pointed out, that's what Ryan Howard won the first time he was eligible for arbitration. Granted, it was after three very productive seasons and Howard had a career 1.007 OPS at the time. However, it's also true that 2nd time arbitration eligibles generally make about 50% more than first-year arbitration eligibles. I think when you factor that in, Davis will get his $10 mm.

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Oh, I think he'll get $10 mm next year. As others have pointed out, that's what Ryan Howard won the first time he was eligible for arbitration. Granted, it was after three very productive seasons and Howard had a career 1.007 OPS at the time. However, it's also true that 2nd time arbitration eligibles generally make about 50% more than first-year arbitration eligibles. I think when you factor that in, Davis will get his $10 mm.
I think he gets 12M

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Davis has shown us his upside. And its much higher than Jones offensively. He will probably not repeat this production next year and I can agree with 875-925. But what is that worth? Probably more than what Jones signed for.

A first baseman with average defense and a .900 OPS is worth about 4 WAR. You also have to assume age-based decline. So let's say half a win a year. Over a five year deal you'd assume Davis will be worth 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, and 2 wins for a total of 15 wins. 15 wins is worth about $75M. So that's about what I think is fair. But even that has the team assuming a decent amount of risk given that Davis has only had one season so far in his career where he was worth the 2.0 wins that contract declines to in five years.

So far in his career Davis has been worth two wins per 600 PAs. As much as we'd like to think he's permanently on a higher level, it wouldn't be terribly surprising if he returned to something closer to that, and a $100M contract would be more Ryan Howard than anything.

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A first baseman with average defense and a .900 OPS is worth about 4 WAR. You also have to assume age-based decline. So let's say half a win a year. Over a five year deal you'd assume Davis will be worth 4, 3.5, 3, 2.5, and 2 wins for a total of 15 wins. 15 wins is worth about $75M. So that's about what I think is fair. But even that has the team assuming a decent amount of risk given that Davis has only had one season so far in his career where he was worth the 2.0 wins that contract declines to in five years.

So far in his career Davis has been worth two wins per 600 PAs. As much as we'd like to think he's permanently on a higher level, it wouldn't be terribly surprising if he returned to something closer to that, and a $100M contract would be more Ryan Howard than anything.

But Davis was worth 6.8 this year and there was nothing average about it. I think the O's have to deal with the fact that Davis has put himself an above average category. Not saying he will repeat 2013 production but he will now get the opportunity to get 600 at bats that he never had before. Middle of the order bats like his get paid.

You are stopping a 5 years. But the O's have set the bar at 6 years with Jones. Add a 6th year and he is at 90m. Add that he is an above average player and he is at 100m.

Edited by wildcard

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But Davis was worth 6.8 this year and there was nothing average about it. I think the O's have to deal with the fact that Davis has put himself an above average category. Not saying he will repeat 2013 production but he will now get the opportunity to get 600 at bats that he never had before. Middle of the order bats like his get paid.

You are stopping a 5 years. But the O's have set the bar at 6 years with Jones. Add a 6th year and he is at 90m. Add that he is an above average player and he is at 100m.

Would you have given Jacoby Ellsbury a contract based on his 8-win season a few years ago? As much as the players would like it, you're usually not well served by jumping into a contract after a massive step increase in a player's performance without a substantial discount for risk.

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