I disagree. You are going to see a major improvement when Adley is added behind the plate and to the offense. Grayson and DL will bring stuff that is near the top of the league. Its up to Elias to put the right players around them. That maybe a 2B/SS/3B and a closer but to not waster these guys years that is Elias needs to do.
"They" are saying the 4 HS SS, college C and 2 college P's all are every bit a top 5 pick. By my math that's 7 players. Also am hearing a lot of there is a far drop off in talent after those guys. So if we were to go underslot with someone in the 10-15 range it sounds like it would be a bad move. Of course i'm no expert but if Watson is there at 5, he needs to be in black and orange.
He's 40th in all time rWAR through age 28, despite this year only being less than half over, and last year being just 60 games. Others who had 40-45 WAR through this age include Duke Snider, Ernie Banks, Pudge Rodriguez, Mike Schmidt, Joe Medwick, Joe Jackson, Home Run Baker, Tim Raines, Reggie Jackson, Gary Carter, Richie Ashburn, Andre Dawson, Lou Boudreau and Miguel Cabrera.
Roughly 90% of players on this pace end up in Cooperstown. There are 125+ HOF position players who had less than 40 WAR through 28.
That competitiveness will happen fastest by trading these guys in in the fat chance category IMO. The best that could happen is a cheaper and better chance to contend long term. And that wastes years of Adley, Grayson and Hall window IMO.
If there is any consensus right now, I think it's that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter doesn't last past #4. Several seem to think Boston will take him if he's still on the board.
That leaves Lawlar, Watson, Davis, Rocker, House and Jobe, in that order, from MLB prospect rankings. 4 of those 6 will be available at pick #5.
If Lawlar says he will only sign for 1-1 slot money, that's roughly $2.2M above the #5 slot value. It would be interesting to see how the O's evaluated these 6 guys. Do they see Lawlar as that much better than the others? Personally, I really like Watson, Davis and Jobe.