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Frobby

Assuming we use a draft pick to get Jimenez or Santana, shall we go ahead and get Morales?

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I take it (usually) near face value to avoid falling into the "guy we just signed is obviously a positive WAR outlier" trap. Every player/team/fanbase can come up with reasons their guy will have a disproportionate impact.

Very fair point. I hope I made it clear that all I was saying was that Morales could have a disproportionate impact, not that he would. It's unknowable in any event, since a million different things go into what the team's final record is.

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Very fair point. I hope I made it clear that all I was saying was that Morales could have a disproportionate impact, not that he would. It's unknowable in any event, since a million different things go into what the team's final record is.

All I know is Jones/Davis/Morales looks a whole lot better than Jones/Davis/Wieters.

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Right. There is no reason to believe last year's .785 OPS, 2-win 30-year-old will get to that level at 31.

That's fair. But I also think it's reasonable to think that putting Morales in OPACY for 81 games and out of the AL West could result in a nice uptick in OPS. I would expect .825-.850, which would be a very nice boost in the middle of the lineup. Though, I wish he took more walks.

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Orioles not done....still alive on Nelson Cruz or Kendrys Morales</p>— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) <a href="

">February 18, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Orioles not done....still alive on Nelson Cruz or Kendrys Morales</p>— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) <a href="
">February 18, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I told ya-within a week-one or the other. Nobody likes Cruz but Buck does, so maybe he sees something...

All these trade scenarios are just silly. Not going to happen. The #55 pick costs little.

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That's fair. But I also think it's reasonable to think that putting Morales in OPACY for 81 games and out of the AL West could result in a nice uptick in OPS. I would expect .825-.850, which would be a very nice boost in the middle of the lineup. Though, I wish he took more walks.

But no difference in impact to wins and losses. He would have to have better raw numbers just to replicate his WAR total.

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Also, WAR is not necessarily a great projection system. Just because someone puts up 3 WAR one season with a team does not mean they will put up 3 WAR the following season, especially with a different team.

Its an input in estimating future production, but far from a good predictor.

True, but the inputs that go into WAR are essentially the core of what goes into projection systems.

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Duq has apparently said that now that they've given up the 1st rounder, it's a lot easier decision to give up the second rounder, so the implication is that they are likely going to try to sign Cruz or Morales. Considering what appears to be a lack of competition to get them, I think the O's are in a good position to get 1 relatively cheaply.

Relatively in the relative sense, relatively speaking.

It's all relative.

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