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Schmuck: After free-agent frenzy, it's time for Orioles to extend core players

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You want to check the date on that quote. A lot can happen in a year. I do know the last time they kicked his tires he was asking for Mauer money. As to Davis, imagine what the Yankees would offer him two years from now and offer him more than that.

Even with McCann on the roster for multiple years thereafter? Or just dual-catchers?

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No way that is enough.

Machado will exceed the $19 million you are allotting for his arbitration years, and 6/$97M isn't even close to market value and it makes him a free agent at 32 which is too late for another big payday. The deal that makes sense for both sides is a 6-7 year deal that buys out 2-3 free agent years and still allows him to hit free agency on the right side of 30.

Under that scenario, though, I would have to think we get a serious discount on the arbitration or FA years, because under that situation we are guaranteeing money that doesn't need to be guaranteed. Basically we could get almost the same amount of time going year-to-year. So a 6 or 7 year deal that buys out arb and covers 2 years of FA should be significantly less than what he'd see going year-to-year then in each of those first two years of a new contract thereafter.

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How does this sound for Davis?

2015: $16M

2016: $18M

2017: $20M

2018: $22M

2019: $24M

2020: $26M

2021: $28M

7/154. Add in this season, and it becomes 8/164 and he's a free agent following his age 35 season.

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My priority right now is Hardy, because I think that extension will take the least amount of time and of course because he is a FA after this year. Get it done. Hardy wants it, we want, we've done it once already just get it done. Focus on Davis after that, but I'm probably going to see how he does this season to make absolutely sure he didn't just have a Richard Hidalgo year before I give him 150+.

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By the way, I think it's funny that we basically don't even mention Wieters anymore. I think collectively, we are all pretty much ok with him being way down on the priority list. That'll change if he hits this year, but I think he is what he is at this point. And you don't hear him say the things Machado and Davis say about wanting to stay here.

He would be right under Davis if he lowered his price.

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How does this sound for Davis?

2015: $16M

2016: $18M

2017: $20M

2018: $22M

2019: $24M

2020: $26M

2021: $28M

7/154. Add in this season, and it becomes 8/164 and he's a free agent following his age 35 season.

When Davis is a FA at 30 the Yankees will happily offer him more than they did Ellsbury. Start with that and add two years and 25 M and you are in the ball park for an extension.

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By the way, I think it's funny that we basically don't even mention Wieters anymore. I think collectively, we are all pretty much ok with him being way down on the priority list. That'll change if he hits this year, but I think he is what he is at this point. And you don't hear him say the things Machado and Davis say about wanting to stay here.

I agree with your points entirely. However, I personally think Wieters would be GREAT to keep here, just not for the price people are talking about. If we could get him on a 4/40 I would be very happy with that.

I don't think anyone is actually indifferent to Matt staying here. I just think most people believe his price will be higher than the Orioles should pay.

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McCann's contract is the bench mark for Wieters IMO. He's the better defensive C and though McCann is better offensively, not by all that much Over the past 3 years WIeters is an average .249 .315 .434 .749, 22 HR , 77 RBI. McCann: .252 .329 .441 .770, 21 HR, 65 RBI. So if Wieters has a good year with the bat the next two, he'll get more. If it's average for him he'll get about the same.

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Fair enough, that's a good find on that quote. I just don't really buy it from Matt. Sure, he'd like to play here for his career if he gets 100% market value as determined by Scott Boras. But he won't, so he'll be totally fine with moving on. If he really wanted to stay here, he would have accepted previous extension offers. I'm pretty sure they've approached him the last 2 or 3 years about it with no results.

You made good points, but do we really know what is going on with the FO and Boras, and maybe Boras didn't take the offer to Matt, we will probably never really know. I don't trust Boras.

I think the thing with Matt, he does understand this is a business too, and it's a fact of life, you can't change it, and no use crying about it like some guys, you man up and deal with it. Of course, this brothers the fans that are used to the Brook and Cal attitude and how they bleed orange. Even Cal said he would play elsewhere if he had to, it wasn't his first choice. Brook never had the chance for true free agency in his era.

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Priorities: Davis, Hardy, Machado, Wieters.

I think MW gets a bad reputation here because he's not as open and friendly with the media and fans as maybe Davis, Jones, Machado, and Hardy seem to be on camera.

I don't think it has anything to do with his media presence. I think it has a lot more to do with the fact that he's coming off an 88 OPS+ in a season where his defense dropped off a bit as well. Add in the fact that he will be turning 30-years old the year he becomes a free agent and history is not kind to tall catchers when it comes to their 30s, and I don't want to invest a lot of money in someone who won't likely give a good return.

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I don't think it has anything to do with his media presence. I think it has a lot more to do with the fact that he's coming off an 88 OPS+ in a season where he defense dropped off a bit as well. Add in the fact that he will be turning 30-years old the year he becomes a free agent and history is not kind to tall catchers when it comes to their 30s, and I don't want to invest a lot of money in someone who won't likely give a good return.

you make valid points.

My concern is, how do we fill the hole, probably the most important spot on the diamond? I know they have a ton of catchers in the system, but that doesn't mean the next catcher is already here.

Great catchers are like great QBs, not enough to fill all the starting spots around the league.

Most teams don't win WS with average catchers behind the plate.

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By the way, I think it's funny that we basically don't even mention Wieters anymore. I think collectively, we are all pretty much ok with him being way down on the priority list. That'll change if he hits this year, but I think he is what he is at this point. And you don't hear him say the things Machado and Davis say about wanting to stay here.

I think it's been ingrained in his head that he's going to get a contract like Mauer or Posey, and I just don't see that happening from us or anyone else. But if another team wants to give him that kind of contract, so be it...have him reject the QO and be done with it.

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I don't think it has anything to do with his media presence. I think it has a lot more to do with the fact that he's coming off an 88 OPS+ in a season where he defense dropped off a bit as well. Add in the fact that he will be turning 30-years old the year he becomes a free agent and history is not kind to tall catchers when it comes to their 30s, and I don't want to invest a lot of money in someone who won't likely give a good return.

Sorry, different part of his reputation. Not his playing ability, but in his perceived desire to stay in Baltimore. He's one of the more stoic guys in the clubhouse, and doesn't really wave the pompoms around like some of the other more vocal guys. Which is why I say we probably don't really know what his intentions are. He could want to stay more than any of them, or he could already have one foot out the door.

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Great thread and it shows the difficulty the Orioles have in front of them, not just with Hardy, Davis, Matt W and Manny, but also Tillman, Gausman, Bundy et al.

I think the Orioles are going to have some serious conversations shortly, but the first thing they have to decide is whether they WANT to keep all of these players or not. The hope of course is that at the right price, they do. If that is the case then I think priority one something like this:

Davis - I would offer 7/150 (15, 15, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28) He is arguably not worth this without putting up similar numbers to last year, but it has potential to be a huge bargain and gives him a chance to be an Oriole for a long time.

Manny - I would offer 10/127 (3, 5, 7, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22)

Is there risk, sure, and you could get it down towards 100, but I would offer this package. If we want to keep him beyond his arb years, its gonna take a big number.

Matt - I would have Boras put a number on the table and then counter it or trade him. I would love to keep him, but I do not see him signing for 5 or 6 years at 10-12 million and I don't see him signing for less than 100. Would it be wise to go to 15/aav and say 5/75? I don't think so, but its not my money.

Hardy - If they want him it will take 3/30 or better. I would be ok with 3/30 but would rather increase the money and do less years. Also before you extend him you need to know if you plan to leave Manny at 3rd or move him to short. If you ultimately want to move him it is better to let Hardy walk unless he indicates he would change positions and even then I'm not sure I like him past one year.

That's almost 400M for three to 10 years depending on the contract. You still have Markakis coming up, Tillman and others. It is expensive to stay in the hunt. The tricky part will be for DD to decide if he wants to spend that kind of money and whether PA would approve. I trust the process will be fine either way.

What say you?

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I would say Hardy then Davis. Hardy's contract up at the end of this season? And

Davis at the end of 2015? I don't believe there has to be any real hurry with one

for Manny. IMO

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