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Assume 22 starts, 132 IP, 3.25 ERA from Gausman this year...

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...and if that happens, are we a playoff team? Don't question the assumption, just roll with it and give your opinion.

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There are too many other variables to say yes or no here, but obviously that would increase our chances exponentially. So probably yes.

Agreed. Too many other variables. That said, Gausman pitched really well against Oakland, Toronto, and Tampa Bay, but the Orioles lost the Oakland series, split with the Jays, and won the TB series. In other words, they played .500 ball. So I'm going to have to say "no," unless the same cast of characters we all know and love (i.e., Tillman, Ubaldo, Davis, Hardy, Schoop, Machado, etc.) picks up its performance. Same old story.

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...and if that happens, are we a playoff team? Don't question the assumption, just roll with it and give your opinion.

I think so. That ERA takes into account that he will have some stinkers along the way. But, I think the rest of the rotation will build off of his successes. They are a very tight-knit group, and social proof seems to affect them to a high degree, as when Tillman or Jimenez has a bad outing and then the rest have bad outings for a few days.

So, I believe that Gausman will make the rest of the rotation better, and that will make them a playoff team.

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Provided the offense performs even in the middle of the pack in runs scored, I think that could do it. He'd essentially be filling the 2012 Chris Tillman role but with more innings and starts. I don't know how you wouldn't go for that.

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I think we are a playoff team if Davis and Manny start hitting like they are capable of.doing. The pitching will be decent, with plenty of QS. What is needed is a more consistent offense.

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Agreed. Too many other variables. That said, Gausman pitched really well against Oakland, Toronto, and Tampa Bay, but the Orioles lost the Oakland series, split with the Jays, and won the TB series. In other words, they played .500 ball. So I'm going to have to say "no," unless the same cast of characters we all know and love (i.e., Tillman, Ubaldo, Davis, Hardy, Schoop, Machado, etc.) picks up its performance. Same old story.

The only thing I'll say is that splitting with the jays and playing a close series against the A's (we were pretty close to splitting that series no?) isn't anything to get down about.

The key is beating the BAD teams like a drum and racking up wins against lesser competition. That's what playoff teams do.

We need to at least split with the Yankees and then hopefully sweep the white sox (provided we miss Sale) to start pulling ourselves out of the al east mire.

We win 4 of our next 6 and I'll start to believe.

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...and if that happens, are we a playoff team? Don't question the assumption, just roll with it and give your opinion.

I still think it's WAAAYYYY premature to be getting overly excited about Gausman (at least for 2014, the future is very bright). He's a great prospect, but he's had two great games. It's not like he has put it all together for a month straight.

Now, IF he were to keep it up like you said, I think that changes the Os from a 78-82 win type team to about a 84-86 win team. Not likely to make the playoffs, but with the mediocre pack in the AL East, ya just never know. It's not impossible that 86 wins would win the division this year.

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...and if that happens, are we a playoff team? Don't question the assumption, just roll with it and give your opinion.

I still believe a AAA and AA catcher is a big hole in the Orioles lineup.With Wieters we are a playoff team. Without him we probably aren't good enough.

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Agreed. Too many other variables. That said, Gausman pitched really well against Oakland, Toronto, and Tampa Bay, but the Orioles lost the Oakland series, split with the Jays, and won the TB series. In other words, they played .500 ball. So I'm going to have to say "no," unless the same cast of characters we all know and love (i.e., Tillman, Ubaldo, Davis, Hardy, Schoop, Machado, etc.) picks up its performance. Same old story.

Wow, I'm a little surprised at this coming from you after you've almost convinced me in my thread about Ubaldo.

He isn't far away if he can get the walks under control and Tillman has pitched well in two out of his last three starts.

Unfortunately, I have no answer for four other variables.

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I still believe a AAA and AA catcher is a big hole in the Orioles lineup.With Wieters we are a playoff team. Without him we probably aren't good enough.

Back in the day the O's relied on Dempsey and they got the job done. Is there that much difference between what we are getting out of our catchers and what Dempsey gave us? Joseph has been pretty good behind the plate, IMO. Sure he is not going to hit that great and the good defense has been a little bit of a surprise but I think we can survive if we get production from all the other pieces. Don't confuse me with the crowd that thinks Matt is not a huge loss, he is. However I don't believe it is the death nail, provided the others produce.

It takes CD, Manny and Hardy getting better and I think a big key is Nick continuing to have a rebound year. This is a real concern as Nick really is not that far ahead of where he was at this point last year at the same time. For me the encouraging thing is Nick is hitting the ball with authority this season far more often. Last season even when he was rarely hitting doubles my memory says that the were the over the bag type not gappers and off the wall type. I guess the question is has Nick been hot so far this year or is he primed to actually show the production he had early in his career. His second half of 2012 production would be huge.

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Buck will lose a lot of respect from me if he ends up sending Gausman to the bullpen because he is the "pup". Tillman and Jimenez should be competing to see who ends up in the bullpen, with Gonzalez also being considered because of his tendency to wilt in the summer heat.

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Back in the day the O's relied on Dempsey and they got the job done. Is there that much difference between what we are getting out of our catchers and what Dempsey gave us? Joseph has been pretty good behind the plate, IMO. Sure he is not going to hit that great and the good defense has been a little bit of a surprise but I think we can survive if we get production from all the other pieces.

We were spoiled with Wieters early on and this year he showed signs of life with the bat after making an adjustment from the left side. However, catcher is the one place you don't look for offense. Joseph has been solid behind the plate.

Our other guys should be productive enough to carry a defense first, light hitting catcher. The question is will they.

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Buck will lose a lot of respect from me if he ends up sending Gausman to the bullpen because he is the "pup". Tillman and Jimenez should be competing to see who ends up in the bullpen, with Gonzalez also being considered because of his tendency to wilt in the summer heat.

Chen doesn't have a great history of stamina either.

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