This is a pretty simplistic way of looking at Brocail's body of work - albeit unusual from our best poster.
I do not have the time to go into more detail, but I will put out a few thoughts that may have led to a change in our pitching coach - in the absence of looking at a detailed pitcher by pitcher analysis from last year to this year.
- I believe our defense was supposed to be better in 2020 than 2019 - something that could have impacted pitcher results.
- the removal of Dylan Bundy (2019 ERA 4.79, ERA+ 98) and the addition of Alex Cobb (2020 ERA 4.30, ERA+ 106)
- speaking of Mr. Bundy, his improvement in results in 2020 with another organization based on a change in pitch mix (as well as opponents) is not a good reflection on our pitching coach - especially if it were determined that the pitch mix change was something that should have been implemented last year based on available data. Not sure of the results of other pitchers who left the organization.
- also not sure of the improvement of someone like Tanner Scott from 2019 (ERA 4.78, ERA+99) to 2020 (ERA 1.31, ERA+351!) - what role did Brocail have in the improvement or perhaps in Scott's mediocre numbers last year.
My guess is that our GM has made a numbers based decision on Brocail - just as it was pointed out here how bad Flores was in 2020.
Current Roster: The duo of Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco continue to be serviceable and their improved defense made 2020 easier to handle. Both could continue improving next season, but we are probably very close to their ceiling which is a combined OPS that’s been around .730 the last two seasons with too many K’s and a little bit of pop. Bryan Holladay and Austin Wynns provide solid defensive back up options and could still be in the mix in 2021, especially if Elias tries to trade Severino or Sisco.
Future Outlook: This is all about Adley Rutchman, and the current options on the MLB roster can allow us to wait until he is truly ready to take over the position for hopefully the next 6 plus seasons. However, there will always be the battle to be his back up. Does Severino or Sisco stay on the roster as a back up and DH option when we return to playing playoff baseball? If they become expendable does an option arise out of Brett Cumberland, Maverick Handley, or Martin Cervenka? It does thin out a bit after Rutchman in the system.
Players of Note: Cody Roberts, Jordan Cannon, Harris Yett, Taylor Davis
Rutchman alone pushes this grade up, but the overall depth on the MLB staff and AAA help as well. There is a need for depth in the lower parts of the system, but if Rutchman comes as advertised, the need for depth isn’t crippling, as it essentially comes down to finding a quality back up. Moving on, Elias probably tries to find a cost effective way to improve this depth with international development and mid round picks in the upcoming draft.
Hess is awful; no argument there.
But, look at Phillips FIP and K/9 numbers the past two seasons. There is more in there and my eyeballs saw it in his nice scoreless innings run this season. I say he gets one more season. Will pitch at 26 next season and I saw flashes this year that make me believe he carve out a role at the MLB level.
Sedlock has been disappointing when you see the 1st round sticker on him, but his numbers have improved greatly since his awful collapse in 2017. K numbers have steadily risen since, and if converted to Bullpen, he could piece a solid piece.